Public Policy Polling (PPP): DE Senate--Coons up big 50-34 over O'Donnell

[WI_DEM]

remember PPP is also the pollster who gave O'Donnell the weekend lead in the polls showing Castle to be vulnerable:

Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Coons up big

Republicans more than likely cost themselves a Senate seat last night. Chris Coons begins the general election in Delaware with a 50-34 lead over Christine O'Donnell. Mike Castle would have led Coons by a 45-35 margin.

While O'Donnell may have ingratiated herself to Delaware's small group of registered Republicans over the last month she's turned off everyone else. An August Daily Kos/PPP poll in Delaware found her favorability rating at 23/33. It's now 29/50.

If Castle had won he would have received more Democratic support than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country. Now our polling suggests with O'Donnell's victory that Coons will win more Republicans than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country. That's because of a general unwillingness to support O'Donnell from Castle's moderate base- folks from the centrist wing of the GOP are planning to support Coons 54-31. Overall he takes a full 25% of the GOP vote while also largely consolidating the Democratic base for a 72-13 lead on that front. He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.

Only 31% of voters in the state think O'Donnell's fit to hold public office while 49% think that she is not. Even with Republicans in the state less than half at 48% believe that she is. That may seem inconsistent with her victory last night but keep in mind that our general election poll includes GOP voters who were not planning to vote in yesterday's primary. Only 33% of independents and 16% of Democrats believe O'Donnell's fit.

Coons himself is largely undefined. 36% of voters don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion and those who have split pretty evenly with 31% seeing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. But given O'Donnell's considerable baggage he will probably win this race as long as he can avoid making any serious mistakes in the next 7 weeks. And his personal numbers are likely to go up as voters in the state shift their attention to the general election and begin getting to know him better.

The result of the Delaware primary last night is the best thing that has happened to Democrats electorally since election night in 2008.

Full results here
Posted by Tom Jensen at 9:05 AM 0 comments

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Deep13]

1. Ha! Take that commie-pinko, terrorist-coddling Obamaphiles!

Wait, that wasn't supposed to happen.

[Peacetrain]

9. Yep... sounds about right

Delaware.. going Tea Party... I just do not see it at all

[FBaggins]

2. They showed it at 44-37 just a month ago.

I wonder whether they reported that as artificially close (to encourage Republicans that she could make it competitive).

The result of the Delaware primary last night is the best thing that has happened to Democrats electorally since election night in 2008.

Yep. Possibly tied with Chris Dodd dropping out of the CT race.

[vaberella]

13. Additionally, I don't think they expected the hypothetical to be fact. n/t

[FBaggins]

14. You don't give them enough credit.

I think they released the poll hoping to help it <b>become</b> fact.

[zipplewrath]

3. TV ads NOW

"Coons himself is largely undefined. 36% of voters don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion and those who have split pretty evenly with 31% seeing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. But given O'Donnell's considerable baggage he will probably win this race as long as he can avoid making any serious mistakes in the next 7 weeks. And his personal numbers are likely to go up as voters in the state shift their attention to the general election and begin getting to know him better.
"

Then for good God's sake, someone get some ads on TV NOW. Define the guy in the publics mind, and do it in a way the highlights what a nutjob, fringe candidate O'Donnell is.

[WI_DEM]

4. I agree, the Dems should not take this for granted--get out there and reach out to moderate reps

and for goodness sake the primary proved that throwing mud doesn't work in DE--his ads should be positive.

[Mz Pip]

10. Seriously

We don't need another repeat of MA. Scott Brown never should have won that seat, but the Dems took it for granted and now Teddy's seat is held by a Republican. I don't want to see the same fate for Joe Biden's old seat.

[zipplewrath]

11. 'Zactly

If Coon's isn't careful, some 527 will come along and define him instead, and it won't be pretty. Define yourself now, and do it to highlight what a nutjob O'Donnell is.

[DirkGently]

5. The Tea Party is a gift to Democrats this season.

Tea Partiers have just enough enthusiasm and money to get the fringe loons nominated, and *hopefully* not enough to get any of them elected. Can't forget Scott Brown, of course, but Angle, O'Donnell, Paladino, et al. appear dead in the water.

This could really blunt the Republicans' hopes of "sweeping back into office on a tide of anti-incumbent outrage" or whatever.

Should be fun watching these nutters campaign, though.

:popcorn:

[benddem]

6. the fact that

34% of Delaware residents would vote for someone who is so totally unqualified...is scary. Sort of like Palin.

[WI_DEM]

7. Get ready, I'm sure Ras will have a poll out tomorrow showing the race much closer.

[TeamJordan23]

8. I bet Rasmussen will make his polls much closer. nm

[Imajika]

12. Yup, we will hold this one now without much problem...

Still, I admire their base for kicking their establishment in the teeth. How many times do we scream and yell that we should be doing something similar to our conservadems?

It isn't politically savvy in the short term, but it definitely sends a message to elected Republicans to move right.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. In my view, that's not nearly big enough! n/t