My Senate Outlook

[WI_DEM]

14 seats are considered Safe for either the Dem or the GOP:
Safe Dem: Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont
Safe GOP: Alabama, AZ, GA, ID, KS, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT

Likely Dem: NY (Gillibrand), Oregon, Connecticut, West Virginia.
Leans Dem: Washington, Delaware

Likely GOP: Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Indiana, North Carolina
Leans GOP: MO, KY, FL, OH, NH, PA

Too little polling info: Alaska

Toss-ups: California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin

Right now I project the GOP to pick up four Senate Seats: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana & probably PA (but that race could still be fluid).

To take control of the senate they would need to win 10 seats: I consider these the true toss-ups right now: CA, CO, IL, NV, WI--if they swept all five of them they would have a net gain of 9 seats (and then somebody like Lieberman could cause mischief), but its remote that they will take all five. In the end I think CA, NV & possibly WI stay with the Dems. If there is a true wave that could change and we could lose one or two of the leans/likely, but it is remote at best.

In the end I believe the GOP picks up 5-7 Senate seats, 3-5 short of control. I'm also of the opinion that we have a chance in Alaska if the party invests.

Thank you O'Donnell and Sister Sarah for the gift of DE.

[JCMach1]

1. Good analysis, but I also think Florida is way too fluid to put in anyone's column...

[Nite Owl]

2. New Hampshire

Do you think we have a better chance now that the GOP/tea party nominee won?
Some hard work and $ from the party would give us a better chance in Kentucky.

I think Gillibrand is pretty safe in NY. Downstate isn't going GOP and she is from upstate, won pretty big here.

[WI_DEM]

9. maybe especially since NH is still not sure who the GOP nominee is

PPP will have a poll on NH out later.

[HughMoran]

11. Ovide did not win in NH

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-primaries-update-20100916,0,990018.story

[Cognitive_Resonance]

3. Good analysis, and I think you are on target for where things stand now, but

the primary dust is just beginning to settle. I expect some interesting shifts to be reflected in the polling over the next two weeks. The polls already reflect the GOP/TP at full volume. Those people have been foaming at the mouth since Nov '08, and they just don't have any headroom left. The trend that should begin appearing is the awakening of the Democratic base. The so-called Enthusiasm Gap is more accurately an Enthusiasm Lag.

[flamingdem]

4. CA has got to work, how could this happen there? nt

[Radical Activist]

5. All of the "leans GOP" races can still be won by Democrats.

First, Illinois voters aren't excited about either Senate candidate but they aren't sending a Republican to Washington. No way.

Second, we're in a national mood shift. Things are trending for Democrats and that trend is likely to continue to election day as Democrats finally communicate with the electorate. If Democrats win 4 out of 7 of the "leans GOP" races (plus Alaska) then we're looking at keeping a 60 seat majority or even expanding on it. This is realistic.

[Perky]

8. Absolutely agree

GOP Seats are at play in FL and KT

and the others are close enough

Nationalize the campaign scare people with what the GOP candidates are saying.

[WI_DEM]

10. I agree about IL--neither candidate is much liked, so it may come down to lesser of two evils.

[Radical Activist]

14. No, it isn't two evils. Alexi is a good candidate

and has the potential to be an excellent Senator.

[Peacetrain]

6. Good Analysis Wi_ Dem...

[Hawaii Hiker]

7. I'll tell you, I think we could only lose 3 seats in Nov. if things go well

And 2/3 losses are because of retirements (Dorgan, Bayh)...Dorgan might have had a tough time as i think the ND governor is running for senate and is popular, but Bayh would have won easily....

I think Sestak should win PA. as long as Pittsburgh, and especially Philadelphia, SHOW UP...Philly is one of the most democratic cities in the country, they show up, tough for Loony Toomey to make that up...Besides, look at the May primary, you know those Specter voters will flock to Sestak, http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=34

[Robbins]

12. My take

Alaska-Leans Republican Retain or Tossup(Alaska Polling Can be unaccurate)
Washington-Likely Democratic Retain
California-Likely Democratic Retain
Nevada-Very slight Lean Democratic Retain
Arizona-Safe Republican Retain
Colorado-Tossup
ND-Safe Republican Pickup
WI-Very slight Democratic Retain
Missouri-Lean Repubulican Retain
Indiana-Likely Republican Pickup
Illinois-SLight lean Democratic Retain
Ohio-Lean Republican retain
PA-Lean Republican Pickup
New York-Safe Democratic retain
CT-Likely Democratic Retain
Delaware-Safe Democratic Retain
NH-Likely Republican Retain(Provided Palin's choice does indeed win the final vote)
NC-Lean Republican Retain
Arkansas-Safe Republican Pickup
LA-Safe Republican Retain
Kentuckey-Lean Republican Retain
Florida-Likely Republican Retain
West Virginia-Likely Democratic Retain

A few are still In flux.Missouri,Ohio,PA,NH,and NC should not be writen off yet.

[totodeinhere]

13. That looks like a good analysis, but...

the thing that concerns me is that a pick up of three or four seats by the GOP would make it virtually impossible to get anything done in the Senate as long as the filibuster rule holds. Hell, it's hard enough now when the GOP only has forty seats.

[WI_DEM]

15. PPP just came out with a poll showing Hodes only 4-points down, so I now move NH Senate to toss-up