Internal poll: Kentucky Senate race a dead heat

[ProSense]

Internal poll: Kentucky Senate race a dead heat

Is the Kentucky Senate race much closer than everyone thinks?

An internal poll by respected pollster Benenson Strategy Group that was conducted for Dem Jack Conway's campaign and sent my way finds the race is a statistical tie, with Rand Paul leading 47-45, well within the margin of error.

Now, obviously you'll want to be cautious about internal polls. But this comes as the NRSC has gone up on the air in Kentucky with a new spot hammering Conway, perhaps a hint that the race is closer than we've been led to believe:

<...>

A GOP official told Ben Smith that the ad is not a sign that national Republicans are worried, but that the goal is to "put this race away early" and to try to get national Dems to spend cash on the race that might otherwise be spent on vulnerable incumbents.

Several other public polls have shown Paul with a wide lead. But the Conway camp's internal polling memo by Benenson Strategy Group, or BSG, insists its own numbers are far more accurate:

The BSG poll was conducted using a sample of registered voters who were screened to ensure that they are likely to vote on Election Day.

Recently, a series of public polls have been released that either fail to interview registered voters (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) or that interview registered voters but fail to screen to ensure that voters are likely to vote (CNN). Both approaches are flawed -- particularly this close to Election Day.

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[Botany]

1. Happy Day in NV, DE, NH, PA, CO, WI, UT, AK, FL, & KY R=teabagger

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9137127


Those nutballs are going to really screw the republican party ....... tell people in KY that you are against social security :think:

[AtomicKitten]

2. Happy dance. nt

[Cognitive_Resonance]

3. All of these races w/Tea Party nutbags are competitive. They can be beaten. nt

[Scurrilous]

4. Good news.

K & R :thumbsup:

[K8-EEE]

5. Delaware jumping the shark will help Dems in all the competitive races

IMO a residual effect of high profile triumph of this ditzo will be moderates leaning Dem 2-5% more than they did before Christine got crowned Teabagger Homecoming Queen.

[David__77]

6. The senate will be Democratic in 2011. No money for GOP states.

That could be a powerful argument to be subtly made. It would be helpful for Kentucky, a poor state, to have someone in the senate who actually has some sway.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. That should be a powerful argument now. Why would citizens of any state want to elect a Senator

likely to be a member of the minority with virtually no influence? Especially states like NV and KY that already have a Republican Senator. Why would anyone want two minority party senators representing their interests?

[old mark]

8. Why would anyone want to be represented by a delusional half wit?

Yet several of the states already are...


mark

[YvonneCa]

9. These are GWB voters...

...and it's what they do. :7

[old mark]

10. And they think they are "normal" and WE are the strange ones.....

:eyes:

mark

[YvonneCa]

11. So...Let's give them a big surprise by turning out IN FORCE...

...in November. ;) Let's repeat in 2010 what we did in 2008, and make sure they get the message. :hi:

[old mark]

12. I'd love to see that, but I doubt they'd get the message - they would try to go MORE

right...


mark

[YvonneCa]

14. ...

...:)

[jberryhill]

13. Amen - Let's Roll

[YvonneCa]

15. Let's Roll ! ABSOLUTELY...

... :patriot: