GOP Nightmare: Democrats Can Flip 10

[ProSense]

GOP Nightmare: Democrats Can Flip 10

by horizontalrule

Can Republicans flip 10 seats to get them a majority in the Senate?

Ha ha ha! No, not after last night!

After last night, flip that script:

Thanks to Republicans running extreme, weak, and weird candidates, Democrats can flip 10, putting Democrats in control of 69 Senate seats.

Even if you're not fired up, we can win these Senate seats:

#47: We can win Washington.
#48: We can win Wisconsin.
#49: We can win West Virginia.
#50: We can win California.
#51: We can win Delaware.
#52: We can win Connecticut.

Wait, you are fired up?! Good, then we can win these seats too:

#53: We can win Nevada.
#54: We can win Illinois.
#55: We can win Ohio.
#56: We can win Pennsylvania.
#57: We can win Colorado.
#58: We can win New Hampshire.
#59: We can win North Carolina.
#60: We can win Alaska.

Wait, you're really, really, flipping fired up?! Like standing-on-a-chair-leading-the-chant-on-primary-night-in-Obama's-Iowa-headquarters-after-they-calle d-the-state-for-him, fired up!?! That fired up? Awesome, I was that fired up once!! We could do that again and then we win these seats too:

#61: We can win Missouri.
#62: We can win Kentucky.
#63: We can win Iowa.
#64: We can win Indiana.
#65: We can win Louisiana.
#66: We can win Arkansas.
#67: We can win the Florida three-way.
#68: We can win Arizona. That'd be 68 danged seats right there.

Wait now, you're so fired up, you wanna take down every Tea Party freakazoid this cycle and you just heard we have two common sense Democrats running in places like Utah and Kansas?? Bam, that's 70!:

#69: We can win Utah againt tea-sipping, Alito-clerking Mike Lee.
#70: We can win Kansas against tea-sipping, C-Streeting Jerry Moran.

more

[onehandle]

1. I was never worried about the Senate. nt

[JoePhilly]

24. That is not the question ... the question is ...

Can we CRUSH these crazy far right wing jerks.

Think about it.

They got killed in 2006 and in 2008. Those losses helped spawn the Tea Party nuts.

A loss in 2010 would destroy the GOP.

THAT is what we should be fighting for ... that is a STRATEGIC VICTORY.

From which, we can get many tactical victories.

[happygoluckytoyou]

59. THE QUESTIONS IS... ARE WE BEING SET UP TO BELIEVE LYING VOTING MACHINES

[kenfrequed]

72. hmm

Important to consider I think.

Of course this means we will have to turn out even more Democratic voters. It might have helped if we had put out a 'Most Wanted' list of the most obstructionist Republicans in congress.

[felinetta]

83. The more people we have in the Senate could mean not having to beg some bluedogs for voting with us.

[AllTooEasy]

87. Actually, those seats can only be won by Bluedogs.

Those respective constituencies are moderate to moderate conservative. Unfortunately, a Kucinich will not win there.

[Blue Owl]

2. I wanna do a Howard Dean scream/fist pump after reading that list

n/t

[AtomicKitten]

3. What a difference a day makes.

:thumbsup:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. Yeah. What a difference a day makes. That's why I've been arguing that the polls are...

full of shit!!

[AtomicKitten]

20. I'm with you on that. Polling is like astrology, I only believe in it if it's favorable. LOL. nt

[Whisp]

38. o yes they are! fuck those made up shitten polls.

and the CNN people are STILL full of shit with their doom and gloom o those democrats are going to get WASTED this November.

pathetic.

but as for the OP:

YEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

[Politicub]

75. YEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! x2!!

:bounce:

[opihimoimoi]

4. The GOP has proven they are Unfit to Lead...just look at their WACKO NUT JOBS running

Fuck them

Lets go sing Happy days

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDRBLtgAK-U&NR=1

[mzmolly]

5. I'm more concerned about the house.

But a flip of actual Senate control would be nice.

[gkhouston]

6. If we could keep the House and gain some seats in the Senate, it would make

a world of difference in how hard it is to get things done.

[mzmolly]

14. Absolutely

agree. I hope it's possible, but at this point it doesn't look like it. :(

[gkhouston]

15. Doubtful, but a week or two ago, it sounded like the Republicans were going

to take over the universe, and even before Delaware, there seemed to be a dialing back of expectations. I'm thinking the estimates for November were overinflated.

[mzmolly]

17. True, much can change

between now and November. :hi:

[Beartracks]

61. Yep, that's what echo chambers do. :) n/t

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. With hard work amazing things are possible. The media narrative is wearing thin, and it's time

for the political winds to shift. The GOP has done their part by stirring-up the most wacko elements of their base, and then losing control of the whole sordid enterprise. This is a mid-term election, and it's all about turnout. I think there's a good chance come the first Wednesday morning in November that the pundits and right wing windbags are going to egg all over their faces. Let's make it happen.

[PBass]

43. The media loves a horse race. It's good for ratings and it requires

zero homework from them, or any in-depth knowledge of policy or procedures.

So I won't be surprised AT ALL to see a Democratic 'surge' (in the media) in the last weeks before the election. I think Democrats can do a LOT better in November than the doomsayers would have us believe. I'm not buying the media negativity, not on a national level (I'm sure we will lose some races because they are normally red districts that swung too far in 2008, carried by Obama's momentum. This is an expected adjustment, and is not a commentary on the Democrat's direction).

We're the base, we should rightly determine the narrative, not the media. When we vote, we win.

[AlbertCat]

71. then losing control of the whole sordid enterprise.

I do wonder how many undecideds across the nation saw Miss Don't Touch Yourself and Mr. Sent You Some Bestiality Jokes win and said "Jesus H Christ! Better vote Dem"

[bushisanidiot]

8. Nice list! Way to break it down.

I'm on board 100% !!!!! :)

[FBaggins]

9. When did a long list of "we can win 'x'" become evidence for anything?

So if I get "fired up" we can win races where we're down by 15,20,25% or more?

Thanks to Republicans running extreme, weak, and weird candidates,

Sigh... a common irrationality. Just because I would never vote for someone and think they're nuts... does that really mean that everyone else agrees? If that were the case why don't we have 95-100 senate seats? The reality is that there are plenty of placed in the country where people elect candidates that I would never consider.

Lincoln has been trailing badly all year and it has only gotten worse. She's a good 30 points down now, but if I get really really fired up we can win that seat?

[tritsofme]

23. It's the same sort of thinking that makes the Tea Partiers think O'Donnell has a legitimate shot

in DE. It is just a fantasy world.

[FBaggins]

30. She has about a 10% chance.

This isn't even one in a million.

[Jackpine Radical]

54. But Blanche Lincoln is the Chosen One

of God Rahm.

How can this be? That wacko progressive Bill Halter would maybe lose this big, but Blanche? No way!

[kenfrequed]

73. That was frustrating.

I was thoroughly pissed off at the establishment democrats that backed her. The same people that tell progressives that WE have to be pragmatic and that we have to support a candidate that is "electable." Never mind that Halter was way closer in the polls than Blanche versus the repukes.

I would rather not lose any seats if it can possibly be helped. But if there was a way for us to keep the same number, or better yet gain seats, while losing Blanche I would be rather happy. I would love to see the narative spin on that one.

[vi5]

10. Any evidence of any of this happening?

I mean it's a nice list and all, but the reality is something much different, no matter how fired up we get or how loudly we clap.

The fact that Florida and Arkansas are included on this list automatically removes any sort of rational credibility.

[PBass]

44. Florida and Arkansas are at the bottom of the list, indicating they are unlikely (NT)

[sofa king]

76. If there is, we should see it right away.

I'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure that the idea is that the Tea Party candidates will have a negative influence not only on their own races, but on other close races and races that were previously considered safe for the GOP.

If that's the case, the spreading news of the Tea Party's "victory" should be seen in other Senate polls, like for example in California where a classic corporate Republican with limitless money is statistically tied with Barbara Boxer and has been for at least the last month. If we see Boxer beginning to pull ahead, we can guess that the Tea Party is bleeding across the brand.

The Tea Party demographic is tightly concentrated around right-wing authoritarians, basically American Nazis who make up 23% of all voters, religious nutjobs from only a subset of Christianity, and the very wealthy individuals who know how to profit by manipulating these groups. Altogether, they form a group that hovers right around 30%, the classic "Bush Basement" of approval in which that president frequently approached in every year he was president except when he was trying to steal an election.

So that's my proposed test of the theory: if Boxer's lead jumps outside of statistical uncertainty, the Tea Partiers have poisoned the whole Republican cistern, and we can hope for a powerful mid-term success.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

79. Exactly. I think we'll see the poll movement over the next two weeks. Murray is already pulling

ahead in the WA Senate race, but I am not familiar enough to know if factors other than backlash against GOP extremism are driving the spread.

[Marsala]

11. That could happen... if Obama invents cold fusion, plants the flag on Mars, and kills Osama

With his bare hands.

Then it would be a possibility.

[onenote]

12. I appreciate the enthusiasm. But Utah? Florida? Kansas? Arizona?

Yes, in theory we can win every state. But in reality, not going to happen.

[bc3000]

37. We can win Florida... If Meek drops out

He doesn't have a chance anyway: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/florida

So we could at least get Crist instead of far right wing Rubio.

[vaberella]

45. Exactly...that's why I like it. n/t

[greymattermom]

42. Kansas

At least we won't have Todd Tiarht.

[WI_DEM]

13. I like the way you think.

[Ter]

29. I don't

The only thing worse than no confidence is false confidence.

[Codeine]

36. +1

OP is delusional.

[peace frog]

47. +2

Fired up is good, but remember to add a healthy dose of reality to temper the overconfidence.

[Liberal_in_LA]

16. kick

[TheBigotBasher]

18. The Repugs flipping 10 seats

was an idea pushed by the media and accepted by political pundits for no reason than to say the governing party "ALWAYS" does badly in mid-terms. That simply does not have to be the case.

[old mark]

21. Looks like we might have the Governor of New York, too....nt

[Bluenorthwest]

22. As we currently do. So no 'flip' is involved.

Now, we might have the Governor of California, if California Democrats do the work involved, like bothering to vote at all.

[ClarkUSA]

25. Only if we show up at the polls, so help GOTV via OFA today. We need you!

Help Democratic voters to the polls! http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ofasplashflag/

[SkyDaddy7]

26. I think we are getting carried away here...

I hope I am dead wrong but I do not think just because there are crazy nuts running they can't win...Down here in Georgia we have a freaking nut running for Governor who is not only spewing right wing insanity but is also under investigation for ethics violations while being a US Congressman & he is facing bankruptcy in his personal finances...His name is Nathan Deal & he is currently 11 points ahead of Roy Barnes. DISGUSTING!

Maybe it is different where some of you live but down here you can't even listen to the radio on FM channels without the host making right wing comments & some channels it is nothing but anti-Democrats & Obama! Then I would say 95% of AM channels are nothing but right wing talk radio! Then almost every store or restaurant you go into has FOX "News" on the TV!

I know many on the left refuse to admit Rupert Murdoch has the power he does to manipulate enough of the public to make a difference on election day or to turn people against legislation the Democrats are for but HE DOES!

So, I am not very optimistic yet I HOPE I am WRONG! I would not be surprised if we lose the Senate although I think we are just going to lose the House...Which will be a disaster!

[Cha]

27. The cororatemediawhores have their work

cut out for them..to keep those spirits dampened.

[Ter]

28. No way the third scenario pans out

And the fourth one is so laughable it's not worth my time. Mike Lee losing in Utah, gimme a break.

[704wipes]

31. The GOP is running a Moran in Kansas?

They are running Morans everywhere !

[PJPhreak]

40. Yup,Jerry "Get a Brain" Moran

Here is his mugshot...



Kinda got that "Rabid Fundy Preacher" look,ya think?

[Jackpine Radical]

56. Zing!

Hee Hee.

[donheld]

32. Your lips(Keyboard) to God's hear.

[quiet.american]

33. I'm fired up and ready to go! Thanks for posting, ProSense. nt

[larwdem]

34. We must win

[saltpoint]

35. 69 is a good number.

Actually it's a real good number.

I'm talkin' good.

Recommended.

For any number of reasons.

[golfguru]

39. Rubio 40%, Crist 28%, Meek 21%

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68E55P20100915

Scratch #67.

[JCMach1]

49. Poll has Sink down by 2 to Scott, which I highly doubt... this is a Repig weighted poll

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_0_3_aa&usg=AFQjCNGl-aYyR6jZh3kVHknpg9kBFdsSbA&sig2=ew5dysXZGrdNmhtxY93HzA&cid=8797591994091&ei=xP-RTOCpO8SOjweLvcydAQ&rt=SEARCH&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.reuters.com%2Ffrontrow%2F2010%2F09%2F15%2Freuters-ipsos-poll-tea-party-favorite-rubio-ahead-in-florida-senate-race%2F

[opihimoimoi]

41. The Anti Bagger Peeps are Fired up....its their turn to eat meat

[Enthusiast]

46. That would be great!

I'm all for it. :thumbsup:

[indimuse]

48. KNR!!

!!!

[progressoid]

50. Hey, what's that I see?

[florida08]

51. if you saw Rachel last night

here's her chart. As you see it's mostly teabaggies/fundies showing up to vote in the GOP. We absolutely can keep and even gain. Now's not the time for complacency. A lot of good democrats are counting on us. Certainly looks like the right is much more consistent than we are in mid terms. That's ok as long as we show up in November. I have no doubt we will..because the alternative is just to nasty to contemplate.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

52. Unrecc'ing for Exessive Cheeriness!

I haven't had my first cup this morning!

Kidding!

Let's change the narrative. This mid-term election, the party in the White House WIDENS its majority.

[Cal33]

53. While I'm glad about your enthusiasm, I also don't underestimate

the power that corrupt and evil leaders have over their ignorant supporters.
I sure hope that you win, though.

[The_Commonist]

55. You're deluding yourself.

You actually think Democrats WANT to have that big a majority?
They are going to do everything in their power to make certain that they either keep the thinnest of majorities, or better yet, that they end up in the minority. That's where they prefer to be.

If you think otherwise, you simply have not been paying attention.

[wpelb]

58. Would that explain Harry Reid's "pet" comment?

Harry Reid: Chris Coons is “my pet”

At the very least, it will preserve something close to the status quo in the Senate.

It will certainly do nothing to help them increase their present nearly filibuster-proof majority.

[Ganja Ninja]

57. If the Democratic party were to actually increase their majority in this election

it would shatter the GOP. The finger pointing between the Republicans and the teabaggers would become very bitter very quickly. I doubt whether each side would cross lines to vote for the other ever again.

[SecularMotion]

60. More Losses in 2010 Could Push GOP to Brink of Collapse

It couldn’t happen again, right? Republicans have gotten slaughtered in two straight elections. 2006 saw a fifteen-seat majority in the House evaporate, leaving nothing behind but a minority of the same size. In the same year, a five-seat majority in the Senate turned into a 51-49 minority. Just two years later, Democrats delivered another crushing blow, taking an additional 21 seats in the House, and eight more in the Senate. In just two years, the GOP population on Capitol Hill decreased by 52 Representatives, and 14 Senators. In both houses, Republicans are dangerously close to being rendered politically irrelevant by supermajorities that could override any attempts to block Democratic legislation.

http://www.eyesonobama.com/blog/content/id_45198/title_More-Losses-in-2010-Could-Push-GOP-to-Brink-of-Collapse/

[JoePhilly]

65. YUP ... if we get out and vote, we'd drive a deep wedge between ...

the crazy tea party and the slightly less crazy GOP.

They'd splinter further.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

84. GOP failure to take control of either chamber will result in a devil of a fight within the GOP

With all the built-in advantages the Republicans have going in to the 2010 mid-terms if they can't take control this time then when could they? Falling short provides nothing for their leadership to crow about. They will still be the minority party with no direct power of influence. They're going to be seen as impotent. And the Tea Parties and Republican Establishment will blame each other for the failures.

[HughMoran]

62. I think we can flip NH

Hodes is a good guy.

[Blue State Bandit]

63. With numbers like that, we can live w/o Arkansas.

Blanche can bite me.

[Pryderi]

64. I'm going to go with Nate Silver's predictions, as gloomy as they are, they seem to be

based more in reality


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Average outcome after 100,000 simulations Updated Democrats Republicans Other
Senate Sept. 7 52.1 47.5 0.4
House Sept. 9 209.7 225.3 0.0
Governor Sept. 15 19.5 30.2 0.4
About FiveThirtyEight Methodology »Blog Contributors »

[Cognitive_Resonance]

81. Track Nate's next few updates. nt

[CLANG]

66. But if we get 68 seats - there goes their main excuse

for towing the corporate line: "we don't have the votes!". Even with the bluedogs we could get 60 on every vote. The progrssive aganda could be rammed down the GOP's throats, except that the "corporatists" don't want that!

[MilesColtrane]

67. There's a difference between fired up and manic.

Your scenario is about as likely as the unemployment rate dropping by 5 percentage points between now and election day.

[newtothegame]

68. Cue the Dean Scream. nt

[existentialist]

69. That's optimism.

I like it.

"Hell, you've got to be optimistic."
(my Father)

[kestrel91316]

70. Even with 69 senate seats we will still hear about how we don't have the

votes to push through a progressive agenda. Just watch.

[AlbertCat]

74. #59: We can win North Carolina.

Well, when I turn on the local News down here in Wilmington, I see Burr ads 3 to 4 times before the news is done. Boy are they lame and uninformative! But not as lame and uninformative as not being there at all.... which is what we have with the Dem challenger who is so invisible I can't even remember her name! Where are her ads?

When is the actual Dem Party gonna get fired up? Am I supposed to write an ad and get it on the air for her?

[wisteria]

77. I love your post! n/t

[mistertrickster]

78. I live in Kansas, and we've got a GREAT candidate running. It could happen. nt

[DrSteveB]

80. we can win Arkansas with blanche trailing by 16%?

Let's hope so: http://arkansasnews.com/2010/09/15/poll-boozman-continues-to-hold-17-point-lead-over-lincoln/

[JDPriestly]

82. Taking seats is not the issue.

Whether those who take the seats will support the Democratic platform, Democratic bills -- that's the question.

This is not a football game. It isn't about points. It is about substance, about how to solve problems, about how to work together as free citizens in a free country, about controlling our military machine, about whether members of Congress are representing us. the American people, or whether they are representing multi-national corporations. I find the OP rather annoying. Sounds like some professional campaign shtick.

Forgive me, ProSense, if I am wrong, but your post really annoys me. No, I'm not fired up about the fact that Obama appointed the Cat Food Commmission. No, I am not fired up about Obama's refusal to even allow single-payer, public option proponents to sit at the table and discuss their ideas about health care provision. No, I am not fired up about Obama's plans for education. No, I am not fired up at the Obama administration's failure to prosecute the Wall Street criminals who caused the economic break-down. no, I am not fired up at the lack of good initiatives on balancing our trade deficit. No, I am not fired up at the lack of jobs.

No, I am not fired up at the disregard of Rahm Emmanuel, Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. No, I am not fired up. I'll vote Democratic because I'm in California and I like my local candidates, but I am not fired up at the prospect of more Ben Nelsons, Landrieus, Baucuses, etc. in Congress. They are only a tad better than Republicans in my book.

[h9socialist]

85. The way to stick it to 'em is to stick it to 'em!

Let's get fired up before Social Security and Medicare are cancelled, and teenage masturbation is a felony! Not to mention the redeployment of combat troops in Baghdad, and complimentary Bibles in all public schools.

[JNelson6563]

86. If this happens we'll need a suicide watch thread

There will be some DUers that will definitely be suicidal if we win that bag on election night. Months and months of hard work spreading negative vibes will come to nothing, yeah that can be frustrating.

I am helping with some Dem campaigns and can't wait till election night! W00T!!

Julie

[Ramulux]

88. I might die from shock if that happens

If we were to gain seats my head might literally fucking explode, I have spent the last year mentally preparing myself for big losses and for them to all of the sudden gain seats would fry my brain.