Poll: 77 percent of young voters say they will turn out for midterms

[babylonsister]

Poll: 77 percent of young voters say they will turn out for midterms
By Elise Viebeck - 09/15/10 03:13 PM ET


A new poll released by Rock the Vote on Wednesday showed that in spite of growing cynicism among young voters, 77 percent are planning to go to the polls in November.

Pollsters attribute this enthusiasm from the group's overwhelming confidence (83 percent) that their generation can successfully reform the country, even though 59 percent say they are more cynical about politics than they were in 2008.

Looking toward the midterms, a majority of voters are paying close attention to the races. In spite of some growth in the GOP's overall favorability, President Obama has maintained his appeal among young voters, with half saying that his endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. Only 26 percent said the same about former Alaska Gov. and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R).

more...

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/119005-poll-77-percent-of-young-voters-planning-to-turn-out-for-midterms

[tularetom]

1. Looks like the liberal media obituaries for the Dems may have been premature

Not that it will stop them but they might look even sillier by November.

[DrSteveB]

18. How many House seats do you think the Democratic Party will win or lose

in November?

[tularetom]

24. I have no clue

But I think they will probably do better than the TV blowhards predict but not as good as they could if they started acting like Democrats and shit canned all this "centrist" crap. They've been handed a golden opportunity with the expiration of the bush tax cuts. I think Obama knows what to do but it sounds like some of the blue dog wusses are starting to get cold feet.

If they punt on middle class tax cuts until after the election they're probably dead meat. If they show some spine they can probably minimize their losses.

[smalll]

2. Um, perhaps 77% of kids will say they plan to turn out for their OWN midterms --

There's no way the kids are voting this year.

[tridim]

4. What other mid-term is there other than your own?

:shrug:

[smalll]

6. I mean midterms as in midterm exams (as opposed to finals) -- /nt

[Beetwasher]

7. Well let's see YOUR data

Instead of yr broad based insults of our nations young voters who we should all be hoping turn out in droves. U sound disappointed in this data.

[Radical Activist]

9. Are voting age adults "kids?"

[prolesunited]

11. Perhaps they are not as jaded and cynical

as you appear to be.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

14. "77 percent are planning to go to the polls in November."

Reading hurts your brain, doesn't it?

[Codeine]

26. He may have a point; saying it and doing it are two different things. nt

[Starbucks Anarchist]

34. He never has a point.

[Jennicut]

17. I was not a kid when I turned out in the midterms during the late 90's and early 2000's.

I may have been in my 20's but I was not a "kid". I was an adult. We expect them to act like adults so treat them that way. I work with two very intelligent young women right now who are 20 and 22 and they are very engaged. I am 34 myself and as someone who is still considered a young adult, I know I am interested and involved.

[Codeine]

28. To be fair,

the sort of people who post on DU are the politically energized outliers -- we aren't, and weren't, like most people. I've never missed an election since I became old enough to vote, but I recognize I am not representative of the norm.

[smalll]

35. 34 does still count as young, and as long as you're healthy, Jenny, I'm sure

you're virtually as beautiful as you were in your early 20s.

But don't let it fool you. Today's 20-year-olds were born in 1990. All they've ever known is rare and well-controlled "playdates" when they were little ones, the XBox, the internet of the Youtube Era, and Ritalin.

Today's kids have an extreme form of what the Buddhists call "hummingbird mind" -- they can't focus for more than a minute or two. They have no interest in the midterms; for them, everything today is about Snooki, or Lady Gaga, or (worse) "Ke$ha", or the Biebster. Without a President to vote for, they (or at least the vast majority of them) can't focus.

[Jennicut]

39. Gee, what would you think of my kids? They were born in 2004 and 2005.

Yes, the twenty-somethings are attached to their cell phones and whatnot but they aren't stupid. I am just saying treating these young adults like they have some responsibility is better then simply writing them off. Who knows what they may do some day? My generation is too small to make major changes and frankly, there are too many Gen Xers who are too conservative. These are your future liberals and members of the Dem party. They grew up with Bush as their first major President and are heavily influenced by that. I would say we might not be able to totally count on them but we should put the effort in to treat them like adults if we want them to participate. You know, respect does matter.

[gkhouston]

29. It would surprise and impress me if the youth turnout were that high.

I'll take it as a good sign that so many of them intend to vote.

[LiberalFighter]

31. Even 1/2 that would win elections for us.

[vaberella]

3. I already got my ballot. I'm overseas.n/t

[catgirl]

5. Good for you!!

Cheers to the overseas voters, especially the young ones!! :-)

[Radical Activist]

8. All polls would be meaningless if anywhere near 77% of young voters show up.

The polls are all based on who they expect to vote and youth turn out is not expected.

[Exilednight]

10. I would really like to think the young vote is going to turn out, BUT .........

this poll was done by Rock the Vote whose job it is to encourage young people to vote. It's like Walking into Home Depot and asking people if they are do it yourselfers.

Of course they will get a high rate of encouraging responses.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

12. The pollsters may be well off the mark already. Part of the genius of the Obama 2008 campaign was

the focus on using e-mail and text messaging technology to establish long-term links to new voters. They've maintained those links and the data bases. Those are very powerful tools that can be used to mobilize friendly voters. Mid-term elections are typically low turnout events, and a even a modest boost from leveraging these resources could have a huge effect on the outcome.

[LiberalFighter]

32. Agreed.

I asked one of those organizers last week what was going on throughout the country. They are very active. Out in the field doing what they are suppose to be doing. Something that was not done in previous mid terms to the extent it is now. 1994 had their crazies but nothing like the teabaggers. And more independents will vote Democratic than vote with crazies. Democrats were blinded in 1994. Not in 2010. The internet was still in its infancy. The internet is blossoming now providing tools that create a better networking process.

[tomm2thumbs]

13. you mean the ones with cell phones that don't get included in any polls whatsoever??

How can that be? The polls can't be wrong!

In the Republican game of cards, Dewey defeats Truman, remember...

[Phx_Dem]

15. They better. Hopefully, they won't disappoint like they did with Dean in 2004.

[Peacetrain]

16. Oh that would be so sweet....

That would be a sock in those blabbermouths who say youth do not care. They got their hats handed to them last time..I would love to see it again

[tritsofme]

19. Put out a poll and ask how many attend church services each week.

It will be a lot higher than the actual number. People lie to pollsters and give "socially desirable" answers all the time. The number is also meaningless without knowing the level of interest of other age groups to compare.

Interesting article from Nate Silver that explores this dynamic in polls, and whether you might get more honest answers from robopollsters as opposed to live interviewers.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/broadus-effect-social-desirability-bias.html

[ShadowLiberal]

20. I'd be skeptical of any poll showing 77% turn out among any group in the mid terms

I think it's just an outlier.

[Codeine]

27. People say things but rarely follow through on their promises. nt

[FirstTimeVoterAt37]

21. Narrative breach!

[applegrove]

22. This is wonderful and I'm sure the numbers will go up as Obama revs up the campaign.

[underpants]

23. So the poll numbers don't include people who never had a landline>?

Wow I only knew that 3 years ago

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. Another polls shows differently, sadly...

From Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/15/rock-the-vote-poll-young-yepublicans-excited_n_717935.html

<snip>

Young Republicans are more energized about upcoming elections and more likely to show up on Election Day than their Democratic counterparts, according to a Rock the Vote poll released Wednesday afternoon.

The GOP enjoys a nine-point enthusiasm advantage over Democrats: 60 percent of young Republicans indicated they are very likely to vote, as compared to 51 percent of young Democrats. They also have a five-point interest advantage -- 20 percent to 15 percent -- among young voters who say they are paying a lot of attention to the election.

With all their "insurgent" candidates, Republicans should be able to turn these findings to their advantage, GOP pollster Brian Nienaber said.

</snip>

[rasputin1952]

30. Both percentages mean nothing w/o the number of Registrations...

If there are 100 young registered R's...that mean 60 of them might show up..

If there are 200 young registered D's, that means 102 of them might show up.

Point is, w/o including the number of registrations, the whole poll is terribly askew.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

36. You're absolutely right! Likely and Registered Voters are two different things!

[AspenRose]

33. I saw many college-aged students organized and campaigning on Sunday.

They will vote.

[WI_DEM]

37. 77% did 77% even turn out in 2008? I hope so, but I doubt it.

[Kitsune]

38. As a 'young voter' I have never missed a single election.

I'm the sort of person who gets excited about a jury duty summons. I am a nerd. Civic processes make me squee. The problem with this is that I've gotten a lifetime's worth of examples of how participation does fuck-all to actually improve matters and I'm not even 30 yet.

I'm going to vote this November, and I'm going to yell at all of my friends to do so as well, but when your choice is between an insane crank and someone who has been in Congress for 30 years and sold out 29 of them ago, if not sooner, well, it's hard to be enthusiastic about the future. Mostly I'm just holding on in hopes that a technological singularity happens and I can get off this planet and move to a convenient Lagrange point.