Battleground Poll: Generic ballot tied, 45/45. Dems fortunes not as grim as media coverage suggests.

[jefferson_dem]

...

In a generic matchup between the two parties, those surveyed were split 43-43 when asked if they would back a Republican or a Democrat on Election Day. This is good news for Democrats and at odds with many other public polls, which have shown Republicans holding a single-digit edge.

Better yet for Democrats, in several key regions with numerous House and Senate seats in play — namely, the Midwest and Northeast — they hold a 5-point advantage, suggesting the party’s congressional fortunes aren’t nearly as grim as the media coverage might suggest. (See: POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll Results Event, Watch Live)

In the West — defined as Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington — Democrats hold a blowout 51-31 generic advantage. Those numbers, however, are tempered by findings that should send shudders down the spines of Democrats in the Mountain West: In that eight-state region, where the party has made significant recent inroads, the GOP held a 24-point lead.

Overall, the likely voters polled said they anticipated Republicans will have a big night, picking up the 39 seats necessary to win the House (45-36, with 19 percent uncertain) and the 10 needed to recapture the Senate (46-37-17).

<SNIP>

President Barack Obama is not getting blamed for the terrible economy. When asked who is most to blame, George W. Bush (25 percent), large financial firms (20 percent) and Congress (15 percent) topped the list. Obama was faulted by only 11 percent. This helps explain why the White House continues to point the finger at the previous administration.

The vast majority (63 percent) feel the country is headed in the wrong direction and hold unfavorable views of the jobs Republicans (59 percent) and Democrats (57 percent) are doing.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1780B312-18FE-70B2-A8A20AD2AAAA1D24

[FBaggins]

1. That's the best news I've seen all week.

Battleground is one of my favorites.

And yes... I think it's better than O'Donnel

[DCBob]

2. good news... tide turning once again..

lets just hope it keeps going this way until election day.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Even better--the poll was of 1000 likely voters. The MOE of 3.1.

This is the first in a series of six bipartisan polls that will be conducted for POLITICO and The George Washington University as part of the nearly 20-year-old Battleground survey. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationally between Sept. 7 and Sept. 9, was conducted and analyzed by two widely respected pollsters, Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and Republican Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1780B312-18FE-70B2-A8A20AD2AAAA1D24

[jefferson_dem]

4. Bump...

For good news. :)

[Beetwasher]

5. Peakng Properly

It's all in the timing

[Marsala]

6. Democrats haven't been paying attention

Average Democrats aren't lacking in motivation because they're disappointed. It's the opposite. They're complacent. In their minds, Obama and Congress are doing an okay job, so why would the country vote against them? And in the same way, why bother voting?

Hopefully the greater focus on the election will bring things closer. I think the House will be very close, and we probably have close to a 50% chance to keep it.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. Looking better every day. nt

[scheming daemons]

8. Good news... look for the FUDmeisters to swarm in an try to put a damper on it

[tritsofme]

9. This is a poll with a sterling 20 year track record, however the relevant data point would be a

comparison between their numbers on the generic ballot before other recent elections.

For instance if Republicans trailed the generic ballot in 2002 or 1998 in this poll and still won a majority in the House, that would definitely provide the sort of context we need.

These headline numbers don't tell me nothing, but this is defintely a poll to watch. When they released their election-eve prediction in 2004, I knew Kerry was cooked, they nailed it on the head. Not sure what they did in 2008, but I will be keeping my eyes on this outfit going into November.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. It's a noisy poll, but it keeps coming back to being even.

I think this is the election year that defies all prognosticating. I think it is going to come down to who has the superior GOTV effort.