PPP: one reason for lack of Dem enthusiasm in '10? They don't believe the GOP will win congress

[WI_DEM]

So why vote? right!

Democratic voters are a lot less sold on the GOP's chances. Only 22% think they'll take control of the House and just 17% think they'll get the Senate. That could be part of the problem in motivating the party base to get out this year. If the rank and file don't think there are going to be serious consequences for the party if they don't vote it doesn't give them much incentive to go do it. There's some precedent for that already this cycle: post election polling in New Jersey and Virginia showed most of the people who stayed home were happy with how things were going. They had no sense of urgency about voting and their party's candidates paid the price


meanwhile:

Republican voters are extremely optimistic about their party's prospects for this fall and that may be part of what is driving the high level of enthusiasm on their side. 74% think their side will get back the House to only 7% who disagree and 62% think they'll get the Senate with 14% dissenting.

Among all respondents 64% said they were 'very excited' about voting this fall. But with Republicans who think their party will take back power that figure is 78%. The conviction that their votes are going to bring about a change in control of Congress is driving GOP voters out to the polls.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Pab Sungenis]

1. One reason for lack of enthusiasm is

the failure, on a large part, for the Democratic Congress to deliver on 90% of its agenda. And most of this has to do with the cowardice of Harry Reid and (to a lesser degree) Nancy Pelosi.

[WI_DEM]

2. So don't vote and let the republicans control and things will get so much better

I hope that "progressives" are smarter than that.

[Pab Sungenis]

5. I didn't say I wasn't going to vote.

I said that's one of the reasons for a lack of enthusiasm.

[onehandle]

3. Yeah, morons. Sleep in on election day. Wake up and have an orange man setting the agenda. nt

[Pirate Smile]

4. TPM on this:

In the Clouds

Josh Marshall | September 16, 2010, 12:06AM

An interesting nugget from PPP. According to their latest poll, Republicans are extremely bullish on their chances for recapturing Congress -- 74% think they'll capture the House and 62% think they get the Senate. That's pretty optimistic for the Senate, but maybe not too far off on the House. But Democrats look likely not to know what hit them on November 3rd. Only 22% of Dems see a House loss and only 17% one in the Senate.

Now, this raised a few different thoughts for me. One was that, as PPP notes, Dems seems really out to lunch on what seems to be brewing on election day. But it also suggests that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm is tied to not thinking anything particularly bad is going to happen for their party. So if the stakes and the foreboding climate become more clear, that could get Democratic base voters more jazzed up to turn out to vote.

Who knows? It's possible.

One other thought too though. I haven't looked back at the polling data. But my recollection is that in 2006, it was the same, or reversed, depending on your perspective. Polling pointed to a Democratic landslide all through 2006. But Republican voters were generally more bullish on their parties ability to hold Congress. And weirdly, Democrats were too. Democrats were not as confident as the polls suggested they should be. I take from this that Republicans always think they're going to kick butt -- both when they are and when they're not.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/09/in_the_clouds.php?ref=fpblg

[DrToast]

6. Biden needs to sound less confident

It is a possibility that we lose the House and he needs to tell people that.

[RaleighNCDUer]

7. I think you are confusing 'enthusiasm' with 'scare tactics'.

Enthusiasm comes from voting FOR your side. Scare tactics is voting AGAINST the other side.

I just want to see something to vote FOR.