Is there a formula to translate generic ballot polls into seat predictions?

[DrSteveB]

What is the historic correlation between the two factors?

[tridim]

1. I think it goes something like this..

If the Republicans have a small generic lead, the Democrats will be "trounced".

If the Democrats have a small generic lead, the poll is completely ignored, and the Democrats will be "trounced".

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. I do not know a formula, but the

basic deal is that we need a substantial lead to be even because Dems are more concentrated in congressional districts--lots of "wasted" Dem voters

The break-even point is anywhere from Dems +3 to Dems +8. I don't know the most up to date view of that. (It does change over time.)

I think the last Gallup generic ballot poll before the 1994 election was Dems and Pugs tied.