Is the Dems' Bush strategy finally gaining traction? (2 national polls suggest it may)

[Pirate Smile]

Is the Dems' Bush strategy finally gaining traction?

Okay, so we now have two national polls suggesting that the Dem strategy of tying the GOP to Bush may finally be gaining some traction. For Dems, it's not a moment too soon.

As I've noted here before, polls have steadily shown that the public may not be buying the Dems' central message -- that a vote for the GOP is a vote for the Bush policies that ran our economy into the ground. But that may be changing, if this finding buried in the internals of today's New York Times poll can be believed:

If the Republicans win control of Congress in November do you think they will try to return to the economic policies of George W. Bush or won't they try to return to the policies of George W. Bush?

Return to policies of George W. Bush 47

Won't return to George W. Bush policies 36

That's not all. Buried in the National Journal poll last week was a finding that attracted no notice:

By a plurality of 45 percent to 33 percent, poll respondents were more likely to say that congressional Republicans are offering an economic agenda similar to Bush's than to say they are proposing something different.

Why the shift? This is speculative. But my bet is that the shift is being driven by the debate over whether to extend the Bush tax cuts, which has dominated the news in recent days. The unanimous Republican support for extending the Bush tax cuts, especially for the rich, may have focused public attention on the Dem argument that Republicans want nothing more than a return to Bush policies.

Of course, even if the public is beginning to buy the central Dem case about the GOP and Bush, there's still no indication it will help limit Dem losses. Today's Times poll finds high anti-incumbent sentiment and widespread discontent with Obama's performance on the economy. Dem control of Congress is still in peril.

But the poll does also find that a whopping 72 percent think the GOP has no plan to get us out of our mess. Could that reflect Dem messaging about Bush? And if nothing else, growing public acceptance of the Dems' message about Bush is another sign that the fight over the Bush tax cuts is a political winner for Dems. After all, is there any issue that more clearly dramatizes the Dem case about the GOP and Bush than this one?

UPDATE, 12:31 p.m.: A top Dem pollster warns House Dems that they must hold a vote on extending the tax cuts for the middle class in order to galvanize their unenthusiastic base.


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/

More from that update:

Top pollster to Dems: Hold a vote on middle class tax cuts!

If House Dems hold a highly-charged vote on whether to extend the middle class tax cuts, it will go a long way towards exciting the lackluster Democratic base, by proving to rank and file Dems that the party is willing to actively fight Republicans on their behalf, a top Dem pollster told me in an interview.

The pollster, Stan Greenberg, made news this week by presenting the Dem caucus with data showing that the debate over the Bush tax cuts is a winner in general. But in our interview, he focused specifically on whether Dems should stage a vote on extending the middle class tax cuts -- something Dem leaders may not do, because moderates are balking -- and suggested doing so could help solve some of their worst political problems.

"A vote will make this issue real, and bring out the clarity of the Democrats' position," Greenberg told me. "This is an election that's being profoundly shaped by who's engaged. Republicans are engaged. They are turning out in large numbers."

"You have got to give Democrats reasons to vote," Greenberg continued. "Things have to be at stake for Democrats to vote. This is an opportunity to make politics relevant to these voters."

Some Dem leaders have suggested that if Republicans block such a vote in the Senate a clear enough contrast between the parties will have been drawn, making a House vote unnecessary. But Greenberg dismissed this argument, saying that Dems should hold the vote to prevent the issue from fading from the headlines.

"If this gets blocked in the Senate without a visible filibuster, and if the House does not vote, this issue goes away," Greenberg said. "This issue is only real if you hold a vote."

Greenberg added that a vote would convince the base that "finally, Democrats are really fighting." He added: "Taking this to a vote sends a very clear signal that we're serious about this issue, and that we're taking it to the Repubicans."

Listening, Dems?


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/09/top_pollster_to_dems_hold_a_vo.html