Cook moves CT to tossup???

[FBaggins]

Little help please. I'm getting ready to leave for vacation so I haven't been following things as closely as I usually do.

I just noticed that Charlie Cook has moved the CT race to a tossup. Nate Silver still has the race as pretty solid D.

Have I missed some news?

[blm]

1. old news would help....Cook is a master at setting up GOP friendly narratives

he's HARDLY an unbiased pollster

[FBaggins]

3. He's not "unbiased"... he's a Democrat.

But he calls them straight (and has an exceptional track record).

[blm]

8. not the Charlie Cook I've been watching for over 20 years

.

[FBaggins]

10. Then you have an active imagination or haven't been watching very hard.

No offense intended, but this is really a case of people who see a professional odds-maker honestly set the odds against his favorite team... and other fans pretending that it makes him a fan of the other side.

There is no question that Cook is a long-time democrat. He campaigned for McGovern and worked for Senator Bennett Johnston and the DSCC for goodness sake.

[blm]

13. so did Clinton and he turned rightward easily...

once Cook became a staple on MSM he had no problem joining the narrative.

[FBaggins]

14. Lol... now Clinton is a right winger?

I guess that says all we need to know about how far afield you've gotten.

So who do you trust to make electoral predictions?

[blm]

16. Clinton often adopted rightward policies...ever hear of triangulation?

Are you stuck in 1992? I suppose Carville is still single and you never watched Our Brand is Crisis?

My view is not foreign to most DUers. Or Rachel Maddow. Or anyone who bothered to scan the BCCI report.

[FBaggins]

19. Your claim was not of a lack of purity... but of the existence of bias.

There's no way you can make a sane argument than Bill Clinton is biased toward republicans. That if he says that a race is competitive it's really a dishonest attempt to shift the race toward republicans rather than a professional assessment of where the race actually stands.

You didn't answer the question. Who are the UNbiased analysts?

[Mass]

2. I saw that, but it makes no sense whatsoever. The closest poll was 6, the other one was 9,

and two internal polls, one from a democratic firm, the other from the GOP, have the race up 15 for Blumenthal, and up in high single digits for the other race (all polls he refers to in his analysis)http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/3343

Now, I dont know if he has many states polling above +5 that he has as tossup, but I think he may have jumped the gun in this case.

[FBaggins]

4. He has a few of the R seats as tossup

where the republican is ahead in the mid single digits... in fact, I think that all of the R tossups fit that description.

...but those are races where poll after poll has shown the race in that range. This is one or two polls that could easily be outliers.

I confess that I've been on again off again worried about this race since the quinnipiac poll has shown nothing but continual tightening from a 40+ point gap to single digits... but it seems quite unlikely that there's enough time left in the race for the trend to be very dangerous.

[CTyankee]

36. I'm in despair over Blumenthal. I feel this is slipping away from him.

His ads are tepid, even tho they trumpet all his good work on behalf of the people of CT. And everybody with a pulse in CT knows who he is. His face has been everywhere for over 20 years. He's taken on the bad guys and fought for the little guy.

I can see how Cook and others could figure that he's gonna lose this race. I am praying for an intervention of some sort to expose McMahon as the hideous person she is...but the hour is late...and getting later. I'm worried...

[Aramchek]

5. you really love Charlie Cook, eh?

[FBaggins]

6. Yes

Love his analysis anyway.

He's widely regarded as one of the best (if not the best).

Do you have a preference for someone else? If so, who?

[Beetwasher]

7. Thats odd, Ive seen nothing to support it

Cook is usually more careful but this could b an error.

[FBaggins]

11. I agree. I suppose it could be to avoid moving those R seats.

The four most competitive republican-held seats all have high single digit R leads now. Maybe he figures if he leaves CT as leans D he would eventually get pressure to move all four R tossups to the right a notch.

[tritsofme]

9. This is what Nate Silver had to say about the CT race today:

I think this is a smart analysis. The race may be tightening, but it is unlikely McMahon will overtake Blumenthal. He is discussing the race in the context of his Senate model:

Another opportunity that Republicans may be considering is Connecticut, where two recent polls of likely voters give the Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, a lead of 6 and 9 points, respectively. Here, the model is more skeptical of their chances: although a lead like Mr. Blumenthal’s is surmountable under most circumstances, the new polls, from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen Reports, show there are almost no undecided voters in the race (and have Mr. Blumenthal polling above 50 percent). This is perhaps to be expected, since Mr. Blumenthal, the state’s Attorney General, and his opponent, Linda McMahon, are familiar figures to voters, with Mr. Blumenthal keeping a high profile and Ms. McMahon having put millions of dollars of her own money into advertisements.

While the race in Connecticut has tightened considerably since the spring, there is no evidence that it is doing so further, and with the supply of undecided voters nearly exhausted, Ms. McMahon may be unable to make up much further ground. Although the forecast model’s call — it makes Mr. Blumenthal a 98 percent favorite — is too assertive for my tastes, and although the race is certainly close, its outcome is perhaps not all that uncertain.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/after-delaware-g-o-p-senate-takeover-appears-much-less-likely/#more-1049

[book_worm]

12. there was a recent poll which had Blumenthal up by only six points 51-45

how that rates "toss-up" I don't know? It was a Quinnipiac poll, too, which had the CT primary all wrong in its' polling of the Gov race. If anything it should be "leans Dem"

[Cosmocat]

30. A six point spead is different for a D v an R ...

An R up 6 points is a mortal lock ... A D up 6 is within the margin of error, even if the actual margin of error would be 3 ...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. EXACTLY!! Wouldn't want to lower the bar for Democrats! n/t

[FBaggins]

33. Don't you think that it would be wise to check before claiming that?

Cook has four republican seats rated as tossup. All four have consistent polling leads. Frequently in excess of six points.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

15. Cook has WA Senate race as a tossup. nt

[FBaggins]

18. As it should be.

WA is just about the definition of a tossup.

Incumbent frequently below 50%... challenger frequently leads in a number of polls. enthusiasm gap favoring the opponent.

That's a tossup in just about anyone's book.

The race appears to have shiften back toward Murray slightly, but her lead is smaller than any of the four republican tossup seats.

Tossup doesn't mean that we're going to lose... just that either side could win.

WA makes sense... CT doesn't (to me).

[secondwind]

17. That probably why Obama is there now, fundraising. I think Blumenthal will win nevertheless.

[Jennicut]

20. It is lean Dem in my opinion. I live in Connecticut and McMahon has a slim chance but

I think she is too unlikable to win. She has plenty of money but she is kind of an embarrassing candidate with the wrestling stuff (and I used to watch that stuff, I know all about it). Plus, Blumenthal is someone with a rep for fighting for the little person and has been a very active AG for 20 years, he is still well liked here. Cook is essentially an idiot.

[Dawson Leery]

21. Blumenthal has taken to the radio.

[Jennicut]

23. And I saw a few nice, positive ads on tv the last few days.

Just regular CT people, with stories of how Blumenthal has helped them as AG. I really liked the ads. McMahon's ads are so grating.

[Dawson Leery]

25. Richard's latest ad is a play on McMahon's negative ads.

The speaker makes it clear that Linda is all about negativity, then Richard comes on to state his plans.

[karynnj]

22. There is not a speck of red on the real clear politics list - even the full list

The closest poll is Blumenthal ahead by 6% - (51, 45) Not really a toss up.

[LiberalAndProud]

24. As far as I could tell from the article, the least favorable poll is a 6-point advantage.

Another poll shows a 15 point advantage.

I can't figure out by any stretch how that makes a "toss up". I am having a really difficult time understanding the general narrative from the press this season. It is just topsy-turvy.

[Dawson Leery]

26. A DSCC insider poll puts it at 22.

Also, the poll in question which shows Blumenthal at a 6% advantage
oversampled the GOP by 10%.

[customerserviceguy]

27. The President went to Connecticut today

We'll see what effect it has on Blumenthal's poll numbers. In the meantime, McMahon will continue to pour mass amounts of her cash into the race. I just get the most basic cable channels (2 thru 21) on the budget package from Cablevision, and I see her ads on TV all the time. That may ultimately make the difference at the end.

[golfguru]

28. How did Charlie Cook call Scott Brown race in MA?

If at all he called it or not I don't know.

[FBaggins]

29. He moved it from safe D to Leans D on January 7th

then moved it from Leans D to tossup a week later.

[Teaser]

31. This is Cook's gimmick

he moves the largest fraction of races to "tossup" status of any of the big analysts. Why?

Because it maximizes his percentage of "correct" predictions. How do you say a "tossup" prediction was wrong?

[FBaggins]

34. Historically, roughly half of his tossup calls go each way.

The wave elections are where most of the tossup races go one way or the other, but over several cycles, his "tossup" call has been quite accurate.

[Teaser]

35. personally I find "Tossup" to be a cop-out

which is my point.

If he only has intuitions about the obvious races, what use is he? I can write a polling algorithm that does exactly the same thing as he does then.