GA-GOV POLL shows tight race: Deal 45, Barnes 41.

[jefferson_dem]

Poll shows Deal 4 points ahead of Barnes
Governor’s race remains tight; fight likely to get ugly

By Melissa Weinman

Republican Nathan Deal is holding onto a slight lead in the gubernatorial race, according to a poll released today by the Georgia Newspaper Partnership.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 625 Georgians likely to vote in November's gubernatorial election. The poll was taken Monday through Wednesday; news broke Wednesday that Deal owes $2.3 million on a business loan taken out for his daughter's failed Habersham County business.

The results show that Deal has the advantage with the support of 45 percent of those polled. Democrat Roy Barnes is slightly behind with 41 percent. Libertarian John Monds claimed 5 percent, and 9 percent of those polled are still undecided.

The numbers shed light on what is sure to be a tight race between Deal and Barnes - the results fall within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error.

"If it's within the margin of error, that's significant," said Ross Alexander, a political science professor at North Georgia College & State University in Dahlonega. "I think it will still be an extremely close race given the political climate of the state."

Alexander said he believes revelations about Deal's personal finances could have narrowed Deal's projected lead over Barnes and likely will have implications for the rest of the race.

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http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/154/article/38028/

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. Great news. Barnes is within striking distance. nt

[izquierdista]

2. Let's see

A crooked politician who can't even collect enough graft to save his ass from bankruptcy vs. someone who colored people vote for. It's enough to dull the point on any good ol' redneck's hood!

[GoCubsGo]

3. AJC has them in a dead heat

42% to 42%: http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2010/09/17/insideradvantage-and-channel-2-poll-nathan-deal-roy-barnes-in-dead-heat/

We get the campaign commercials, as well as Georgia news on the other side of the Savannah River. I'm surprised that Deal is tied/ahead. He's your typical corrupt rethug, and from the sound of it, he should be in prison, and not running for office.

[Stevepol]

7. The AJC had Barnes up by 11% over Perdue in 02,

and Barnes lost by 5% pts, a statistical impossiblity. In a state where democratic elections are not feasible (all votes counted in total secrecy, voting machines able to be safely rigged by some cabal among the Repubs, no possibility of audit or recount), there's really no way to even guess what the result will be. If the Repubs in question don't get around to rigging the machines, Barnes might win. I personally think he won in 02, but of course, neither I nor anygody else can say for certain, any more than Perdue can say for certain that he won. It's purely faith-based elections in GA I'm afraid, as it is in most places in the US.

[book_worm]

4. This could be a Dem pick up as Deal's business interests are under scrutiny

[catgirl]

5. K & R

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I've cautioned about this for 8 years, on DU and elsewhere

Alaska and Georgia are the two worst polled states in the country. Inevitably the more conservative candidate is understated by many points. For whatever reason, the polling models are way off.

Guys like Nate Silver rely on polls for projections. That's fine as long as the polls are accurate, which normally is the case. In Alaska and Georgia you can't take them at face value. I couldn't stop laughing in 2008 when Nate's site, and Pollster.com, and here, and everywhere were scrambling for explanation when the Begich/Stevens senate race in Alaska and the Obama/McCain margin in Georgia didn't resemble the late polling. There were even desperate attempts to find a couple hundred thousand missing votes in Georgia. Of all the results, those two were doubted. What a shock.

The problem, as always, was with the numbers before the vote, not the vote count itself. In this case I'm afraid Barnes is in considerably worse shape than these margins indicate, or any polls will suggest. In Alaska the Murkowski situation provides an opportunity but I'm certain the same dynamic will hold up, our candidate overstated.

Ignore, per usual. I'm sure I'll be shaking my head again in 2012 when Obama is tight in a Georgia poll. It makes for excellent betting opportunities, if nothing else, an undeserved bargain.