PA-SEN not looking so good for us. PPP has it at 51 / 46. Toomey (Clubs for Growth) over Sestak.

[jefferson_dem]

:(

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[elleng]

1. Wouldn't put money on that, just because of my anecdote:

Worked at DNC Voter Protection Hotline this afternoon, and most of the calls I received were from PA, asking for info about their polling places, and similar technical stuff. PA is INTERESTED in Dems, wants to vote!

[brentspeak]

2. "The story here is an inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama"

In the Senate race Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 51-46 and in the race for Governor Tom Corbett is up 52-45 on Dan Onorato. The story here is an inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama- and voting Republican because of it. The President's approval rating within his own party is only 73% in Pennsylvania, with 21% of Democrats disapproving of him. Those Democrats unhappy with Obama are leaning strongly Republican, planning to vote for Toomey by a 68-23 margin and for Corbett by a 69-25 spread.

What that leads to overall is 15-19% of Democrats voting Republican in these two races. Meanwhile GOP voters are extremely unified, giving each of their nominees 88%. Independents are splitting pretty evenly so it is that party unity advantage that has the GOP candidates in a position to win here.

As is the case for him throughout the Midwest Obama's very unpopular in Pennsylvania with 54% of voters disapproving of him to just 40% who think he's doing a good job. Outgoing Governor Ed Rendell has also fallen strongly out of favor, posting only a 34% approval number while 53% of voters disapprove of him. As we saw in Wisconsin earlier this week the combination of an unpopular Democratic President and an unpopular Democratic Governor has the potential to be lethal for the party's hopes of keeping some of these offices under their control.

The Health Care "Reform" bill will go down in history as the dumbest act of self-defeating legislation in US political history. And for all that, a GOP congress will gut the law of its meaningful regulations while retaining the outrageous captive consumer mandate for the sake of the insurance industry. A total disaster all around.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Nailed it.

Those Toomey voters surely would have signed on with Obama ... er ... Sestak ... if only we had passed single payer ... even though we couldn't have passed it ... with the current composition of the Senate ...

Ace analysis.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[brentspeak]

11. I think you'll find that the bit about Obama comes from your *own link*

And yes, you can expect a copy of your post to be forwarded to the appropriate people in charge. Have a nice day.

[jefferson_dem]

14. Where at the link does it say anything about healthcare?

We all know the right wing echo chamber has made serious inroads at telling outright lies and demonizing Obama. Sorry to be so bold but I get a bit offended at seeing the same here at DU.

Go ahead and forward whatever you like to the powers that be. Tuesday will not be pretty. I hope the mods are ready to ferret out the trollish posts and the trouble-makers... whoever they are.

[brentspeak]

9. I'm attacking this joke of a law from the real Democrat side

Not the corporate GOP-leaning Democrat side. From the FDR/Truman/JFK side, not the useless DLC side. The Democratic base either hates or doesn't care about this law, and that's no one's fault but the people who wrote and signed the bill into law. The legislation has managed to pi$$ everyone off, a political miscalculation that guaranteed that the decent parts of it were doomed to be overturned by a resurgent GOP-controlled Congress. If the Democratic leadership was so smart, the legislation would not have trigged such hostility and/or apathy from its base, while at the same time, feeding the hatred on the right. FDR was smart enough to know that Social Security would be embraced by the nation by both liberal and conservatives, and would be politically invulnerable for generations.

This election season challenge has NOTHING to do with the health bill. NOTHING ! It has to do with one number and one number only: the unemployment number which would be 13 or 14% if the R's had been in charge.

The Democrats retained and grew their House and Senate majorities in 1934, in the middle of the Great Depression.

Q.E.D.

[jenmito]

13. You NEVER have a positive thing to say from the "Democrat side."

:eyes:

[jefferson_dem]

15. "Democratic base either hates or doesn't care about this law."

Easily proven false. And speaks volumes about your mindset.

[blue neen]

18. I live in western PA. In fact, I got the call from PPP yesterday afternoon.

There is a Democratic registration edge in this area of the state, but you'd never know it. Richard Mellon Scaife--Pat Toomey's Club for Growth buddy and billionaire owns all of the local newspapers. This area has an elderly population that still relies on newspapers for their news...but they're not getting news, they are getting total teabag propaganda spewed at them day after day.

There are daily attacks on Obama, daily attacks on Nancy Pelosi to the point of brainwashing. Believe me, these people are not talking about the health care plan not being LIBERAL enough.

Walk into any diner in Westmoreland, Armstrong, Butler, Indiana counties. You'll see a bunch of old white men sitting around drinking their coffee, looking at Scaife's rag newspapers, and complaining about "that you-know-what Nancy Pelosi". They can't tell you WHY they don't like Obama or Pelosi, but I can tell you that they have definitely bought into the very subtle racism and sexism of what they're reading everyday.

They pay for those Scaife newspapers with their Social Security checks. The most ironic thing is that Pat Toomey would love to see those Social Security checks come to an end.

If they vote for Pat Toomey, they are voting against their very own best interests, however Club for Growth, Richard Mellon Scaife, the Chinese and Saudi funded American Chamber of Commerce have spent an absolute fortune in PA making sure that Pennsylvanians do just that.

It's not about the fucking health care plan, dude. It's about the Supreme Court and the Citizens United case. Maybe you could come here to PA tomorrow and make some phone calls for Democrats. We could use the help here in the trenches.

Go, Joe Sestak! I will love to see you as my Senator.

:dem:

[brentspeak]

21. I donated $10 to Sestak through ActBlue a couple months ago

After I read (here) that he didn't have enough money to run ads until the tail-end of the campaign. I won't be able to phone bank in the next couple of days, but wish I could. I have first-hand experience at being spammed by the Club For Growth: we in NJ's 5th district were robo-called by anonymous attack phone ads against Democrat candidate Ann Sumers back in the open-seat Congressional election of 2002, Republican Scott Garrett being the unmentioned beneficiary of the robo-calls. Later, it was revealed that the robo-calls were financed by the Club For Growth. Unfortunately, Garrett won that election and looks to hold onto his seat yet again. I believe that Sestak has a real chance, however, and don't accept this PPPoll as the final word.

[Codeine]

12. +1 and well said. nt

[Dawson Leery]

3. I am doubtful of this poll.

PPP has some polls showing the GOP stronger than they actually are.

[tritsofme]

16. PPP is a Democratic aligned pollster

So probably not the strongest of criticisms.

[Dawson Leery]

17. PPP has Foley ahead of Malloy by 2.

PPP is the only poll to show this. At the same time, Tom Foley is highly unpopular.
I question the samples they are using.

[thewiseguy]

19. PPP has the only recent poll for that race

MRG has the second most recent poll and they had a tie race with Foley having the momentum:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ct/connecticut_governor_foley_vs_malloy-1357.html

[book_worm]

4. Luckily other polls show it closer than 5 and we'll have to see what the final morning call poll

shows. It will come down to turnout.

[Dawson Leery]

5. +1

[muntrv]

10. Pennsylvania DUers, prove that poll wrong this Tuesday.

[Bravo Zulu]

20. Will do,

I guarantee Joe will win!