WV-SEN POLL: Manchin 51 (+1), Raese 46 (+2)

[jefferson_dem]

Good news. We need this one. :bounce:

Manchin favored in WV

The Senate contest in West Virginia is between Joe Manchin's popularity and Barack Obama's unpopularity and in the end it looks as though Manchin's popularity will win out. Manchin leads John Raese 51-46 in PPP's final look at the race.

Manchin is the most popular politician we've polled on anywhere in the country this year and it's by a wide margin. On this final poll his approval rating hit the 70% mark with only 22% disapproving of him. Usually you would expect someone with those kinds of numbers to have an easy time of it but Manchin's been hampered by efforts to tie him to Barack Obama and national Democrats. Obama's approval rating in the state is only 31% with 61% of voters disapproving of him.

About a month ago it looked like there was a very real chance Manchin could lose. But three key things have put him in a position for victory:

-John Raese did not prove to be a particularly strong opponent. The first time PPP polled the race, his favorability was 41/35. On this final poll his favorability is 41/47. As voters have gotten to know Raese and make up their minds about him they've generally found him to be unappealing. It would take an extremely formidable candidate to beat someone like Manchin-Raese doesn't seem to be that guy.

-Democrats in West Virginia aren't having the same kind of enthusiasm issues that are plaguing their party throughout most of the country. John McCain won the state by 13 points in 2008 and those planning to vote this year supported McCain by a basically identical 12 points. Unfortunately the lesson for Dems here- nominate your most popular politician anywhere in the country- is not particularly transferable to other states.

<SNIP>

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/manchin-favored-in-wv.html

[book_worm]

1. If Manchin wins I think Dems will end up with 51 or 52 Senators.

[jefferson_dem]

3. 50 with CA and WV. -- 51 with WA. -- 52 with IL. -- 53 with NV. -- 54 with CO.

That's my best case scenario.

[book_worm]

4. I think CO is more likely to go Dem than Nevada or Illinois

Bennet has actually been truly neck and neck with Buck in the polls while in IL and NV the GOP candidate has lately been up by about 4-points.

[thewiseguy]

9. Not a single poll in the last month shows Bennett with the lead

[book_worm]

10. you're wrong--two recent polls have given Bennet a 1-point lead:

and two polls show it dead even:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Buck Bennet Undecided Margin
Marist/McClatchy 10/26-28/10 615 LV 49 45 3 +4R
YouGov/Polimetrix 10/25-28/10 855 LV 48 49 - +1D
RBI (D) 10/24-26/10 501 LV 42 43 8 +1D
CNN/Time 10/20-26/10 829 LV 47 46 - +1R
Rasmussen 10/25/10 750 LV 48 44 6 +4R
PPP (D) 10/21-23/10 818 LV 47 47 6 0
Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/19-21/10 621 LV 47 47 - 0

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/15/10-co-sen-ge-buvb_n_726580.html

and besides I never said that Bennet was leading I said I thought he had a better chance than the Dems in IL and NV:

[thewiseguy]

11. You are right, but those two polls are not included in the RCP

I would not take those into account:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html

Buck has maintained a steady lead for over a month. PPP will have another CO poll out tonight or tomorrow morning. They are the ones that show the race being the closest.

[book_worm]

12. Why the RCP doesn't include PPP, but does include Rasmussen is just plain wrong

PPP has hardly been strongly democratic this year, as there PA result shows. Besides the 2.3% Buck lead in the RCP is actually better, for instance, than Reid has in Nevada.

[thewiseguy]

13. PPP is included

YouGOV or that other IBD polls are not included.

My feeling is that PPP will show Buck leading in their latest poll. They had a tie last time.

[book_worm]

14. You're right

I still think CO will be closer than Nevada or Illinois.

[thewiseguy]

2. Manchin has a 70% approval rating

PPP says the only reason this race is close is because he is a democrat.

[Politics_Guy25]

5. Thank god for this poll

Gallup is out with their final pre-election poll and it is the most frightening poll I have ever seen in my 18 years of following US Politics. Somehow, someway, we seem to be holding the senate line though.

So glad to see Manchin pulling it out here. It pretty much guarantees us a senate majority.

[book_worm]

6. Gallup's likely voter model is shit.

[thewiseguy]

7. There is almost no way that the democrats would lose the senate

Well as long as Liberman does not decide to switch parties. It is probable that we may have a 50-50 deal. I believe that depends on the Washington race.

[jefferson_dem]

8. That Gallup shit made my heart skip a beat.

Literally. For all the critics, they have always been and will always be the industry standard. Whatever the case, Wednesday is about to suck.