Gallup’s Final Generic Ballot Numbers: GOP 55, Democrats 40

[BrentWil]

Looks pretty bad. Here's hoping the Pew poll is closer to reality.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/Republicans-Appear-Poised-Win-Big-Tuesday.aspx

[glen123098]

1. Some people have very short memories.

[budkin]

2. Pundits are in for a shock on Tuesday night

[vaberella]

18. Agreed. n/t

[Bitwit1234]

3. I DO NOT believe all these crappy butt polls

you people have got to know that there in no way in hell people don't remember what the republicans did..also remember this, there are more registered Democratic voters than republican.

[book_worm]

4. or the final ABC/Post poll which has GOP up by only 3

[Drunken Irishman]

5. If it really is 55-40, Democrats will lose at least 70 House Seats.

To put this into perspective, in 1994, Republicans only had a 4-point margin of victory overall and gained 54 seats.

[Ter]

12. If a 4 point margin is 54 seats...

A 15 point margin could be over 100.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Have A Hard Time Believing Gallup Is Right And Not The "Consensus" Number Of Seven To Eight Points

If they are right this could be more like 1894 than 1994 and the results could actually change the nation more than the results of almost any election in history. In this media age it will de discussed until the next election. A fifteen point spread would bring in candidates who themselves never thought they would win.

Unfliipingbelievable...

[earthside]

6. Brace yourselves.

Gallup at 15 percent is a bit out there ... but probably not by much.

From what I've heard around a rather moderately Democratic part of a western Denver suburb in the past few days ... well, it is pretty sour amongst the electorate.

I'm just sayin' ... keep hope alive and all that, but be prepared for some unpleasant results Tuesday night.

[Arkana]

7. Yeah right.

[grantcart]

8. Pollster.com has been ripping Gallup's methodology the last two months

Their scenario of LVs has been called "unbelievable".


For example on their generic ballot they show more African Americans voting for Republicans than Democrats.


Having said that I expect a hard night in the House. Hopefully we can limit the damage to 35 seats.

[tritsofme]

9. That is nasty. On the eve of 1994, Republicans and Democrats were tied at 46% in this poll

Before 2002 Republicans led 49-45, and in 2006 Democrats led 51-40.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124010/generic-ballot-provides-clues-2010-vote.aspx

Losses could be much worse than what the consensus had been.

[Teaser]

11. they won't be worse

.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Or this poll is off by a lot.

The fact most other polls show it closer suggests this one might be a bit off.

[Teaser]

10. We'll likely lose the house but those numbers

are so not gonna happen.

Sadly, though, no one will notice Gallup's epic fail, when we lose the house by 2 or 3 seats.

[liberalpragmatist]

13. It's always best to look at the totality of polling

At GOP +15, Gallup's a huge outlier. The totality of polling suggests about a 6 point lead.

Which, btw, is still dreadful. But not apocalyptic.

You never say never, so Gallup *could* be right. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[rufus dog]

14. So it is real or did they need a poll to push all day tomorrow?

15 points seems to be wildly inaccurate compared to historical standards.

[backscatter712]

15. Gallup's on crack.

There's no way that RV is only down by 4, but LV is down by 15 - something's severely fucked up with their modeling.

[Ramulux]

16. Ummmm no

There is no way in hell they have that much of a lead. Even if the GOP got some sort of unwarranted big last minute boost it wouldn't be anywhere near this big. I would question a 10 point lead, but 15 is just not realistic.

I dont want to be biased or sound too optimistic, but this poll is horseshit.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. That's Why You Have To Look At All The Polls And Not Cherry Pick

The average of all the polls is about seven to eight points.

If Gallup is really off by one hundred percent they are wasting a lot of money beccause they have more PhDs working for them than the Pentagon.

[Thrill]

21. Dumbass country

.

[Jennicut]

22. So this means we would lose 100 seats? Because that is about the equivalent to a 15% lead.

I just don't think that is realistic. I could be wrong but 100 seats?