update--PPP: Miller (R) 37% McAdams (D) 30% Murkowski (R) 30%

[book_worm]

Favorabilities of the Alaska candidates- McAdams 50/30, Miller 36/59, Murkowski 37/53

This is on PPP Twitter:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

Not sure what the actual numbers will be yet for horse race, but bet that McAdams is in the thick of it.

Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska. 37% of voters say they'll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski.


Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one. Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.

How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? It's because 92% of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56% of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31% of them are going for Lisa Murkowski.

The high number of voters who like McAdams, dislike Miller, and are voting for Murkowski place the race in a whole different light than has been thought of the last few months. Murkowski's campaign, rather than propping herself up at the expense of Miller, may actually end up propping Miller up at the expense of McAdams. You never know how things would have unfolded in a two way race but Murkowski seems to be taking a lot more voters away from McAdams than she is from Miller.

It appears that Murkowski will lose this race. There are 2 main reasons for that. The first is that she retained little goodwill from Republicans after deciding to make an independent bid. Only 27% of GOP voters are planning to vote for her on Tuesday, down from 31% from a PPP poll earlier in October. The second reason Murkowski's headed for a loss is that she failed to dominate with independents. She is slightly ahead with them, getting 34% to 32% for McAdams and 31% for Miller. But they're not providing her with a strong base of support the way Democrats are for McAdams and Republicans for Miller.

In a cycle that has seen a lot of strange races, this one may well be the strangest. It would be premature to write off anyone at this point but Miller does look to be the favorite headed into the final stretch.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

[Blue_In_AK]

1. McAdams is infinitely more likable than Lisa or Joe,

and the way he has conducted himself in this very nasty campaign has caught everyone's attention, even people who say they're not going to vote for him because he's too liberal or too inexperienced. Lisa and Joe are down in the mud, slinging it like crazy, and Scott's just floating above it all, calm, cool and collected. I think that's what's impressed me most about him, that and the fact that he's proud to be a Democrat.

[Qutzupalotl]

10. He needs an ad with kids in a classroom

throwing paper and shooting spitballs at each other. He's the adult in the room.

[sohndrsmith]

2. From July - so they may have revised their methodology since, hopefully:

"For those using an automated method -- like SurveyUSA, Rasmussen and PPP -- the regulation is a total barrier. The automated (IVR) pollsters simply cannot interview respondents by cell phone"

full article:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mobile_phones/

I think (rather I hope) that if this is an issue, it'll be proven out on Tuesday in blindsiding the GOP/TP in as many states/elections as possible...

[Blue_In_AK]

3. I honestly do think they'll be blindsided here.

A very interesting statistic we heard today at a town hall is that the undecided vote in Alaska has swung from 6% last week to 20% this week. It seems highly likely that those are Democrats and left-leaning independents who are rethinking their original plans to vote for Lisa. I'll be phone banking some of those Lisa-leaning Democrats tomorrow to see how they're feeling these days.

Scott definitely has the buzz. The other two only have the drama.

[sohndrsmith]

21. Blue, I hope you're right... : ) n/t

[karynnj]

22. I hope you're right - lso want to thank you for all the thoughtful posts you have made

explaining this complicated race and Alaska to the rest of us.

I know people placed no trust in the earlier poll that showed McAdams surging, but this poll suggests that just that is happening. A shift of that magnitude TO undecided at this late stage is amazing. (Does that mean that the numbers here are of those who are decided - not the whole population?)

[book_worm]

4. I think if Murkowski is being seen as fading and that McAdams is being seen as having

a serious chance that some of the Dems who are saying they will write her name in will at the last minute vote McAdams.

[thewiseguy]

5. Do not get excited. Just look at the previous PPP poll for Alaska.

McAdams had a 44/26 favorable rating. Miller was at 35/58. Murkowski at 48/46.

Back then McAdams was trailing Murkowski and Miller both by 9 points.

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/9/AK/14/uuPqM

[book_worm]

6. Yes, he certainly has gained a lot of ground--mostly at Murkowski's expense

if the sizable number of Dems (over a quarter of her voters) decide at the last minute that she can't win I could see them going to McAdams. Alaska is an unpredictable state.

[Blue_In_AK]

8. This race is very fluid.

Every day there is some new little twist that shifts voters around. I've never seen anything quite like it. Especially for a newbie, Scott has run an amazing campaign. I think a lot of people have been surprised by his poise, especially when taking on such highly competitive and ethics-challenged opponents. I think he has a very good chance. What he lacks in experience, he makes up for in common sense.

[vaberella]

19. He seems to be lackking experience in the national arena.

Politically he's been in the field of politics for a while it would seem. I'm surprised Miller was able to push as far as he did. But then again as my friend likes to say---Alaska like many other states are on teaparty crack. :D

[karynnj]

25. There are good major channges from that poll

Though Miller's favorability numbers stayed as bad as they already were - there is a very major shift in Murkowski's. She is now becoming nearly as negatively viewed as he is. While it is likely true that some of her negatives may be coming from people preferring Miller, who moved from simply preferring him to hating her, her negatives would be troublesome even if she were on the ballot. The idea that a candidate with these numbers can win in a write in vote strains credibility. On the other hand, McAdams numbers improved.

The details of the DK poll really show that Murkowski's chances were overblown by the media. It is interesting that the results reported were the very top line - even though subsequent questions broke out who people intended to write in. The difference is small, but there is a psychological difference to saying they are tied and saying Miller is ahead. Here, if the same thing is true - it will lead to Murkowski being in last place - and not on the ballot. This is interesting because why the story has been that Miller is imploding - the real story is that Miller may be very limited by his negatives, Murkowski is imploding. From the numbers, it looks like Murkowski's numbers are tanking and McAdams, by being on the ballot and having numbers at least as good, might continue to gain the people voting for Murkowski to stop Miller.

It would be better for this trend if the election was a few weeks away.

[Ter]

7. Wait a second...

I thought Miller was in third place in the last poll?

[Blue_In_AK]

9. There's no way Joe Miller is that high.

The favorable/unfavorable numbers look about right, although I think Joe's unfavorables are probably a bit higher, but the percentages they'll take in the election are way off.

I thought Lisa was surging last week, but events here in the past few days have recharged Joe's portion of the Republican base and have sent some moderates and Lisa-leaning Democrats back to Scott.

I really think anything can happen here.

[saltpoint]

24. It's no fair, Blue_In-AK -- Alaska is having all of these

breath-taking political races the last two cycles.

Dammit, and this one is incredibly interesting.

You folks are obviously doing something right.

:thumbsup:

[vaberella]

20. His position is changing depending on poll. n/t

[Metric System]

11. I REALLY wanna see Palin's pick defeated in her own state!

[FBaggins]

12. What? How on earth does he pull his biggest lead after his worst weeks of news?

I like PPP... but this doesn't seem to make any sense.

Did they come up with some REALLY tight screen/question for the write-in issue?

Not their only iffy poll today (I hope). Paul up by 15%?

[golfguru]

13. Poll numbers are skewed when a write-in candidate is involved

30% poll number could mean only 25% will write in the
correct name after showing up.

[Blue_In_AK]

14. They even mentioned Lisa's name in this poll,

which really skews it.

I think the inflated numbers for Joe have got to be a big mistake. There's no way he's got that many votes here. I just don't feel it on the ground.

[Ter]

15. 37% isn't exactly a lot in Alaska

That's likely his base. That's probably the percentage of those on the extreme right in that state. Another 35% are either regular conservatives or moderates, and the rest are liberal.

[Blue_In_AK]

16. I really honestly don't think Joe has that big a base here.

He's too extreme for even our right wing, especially with all the religious bs that he's trying to push. Alaska consistently rates as one of the least religious states in the union, and we are still suffering from the Palin fatigue syndrome, as well, so I just find these numbers hard to accept.

By the way, the Alaska state legislature is pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, so all the stories you hear about how red Alaska is really aren't borne out. Sure, we elected Ted Stevens year after year, but now that he's gone, things are in a state of flux. Lisa Murkowski is no Ted Stevens. And Joe Miller REALLY isn't.

[Ter]

17. I dunno, you might be right

I mean, I know Alaska is like 60% or even 65% registered Republican. That's why I think 37% there isn't outside of the question. That's still 63% against him.

Yes, it has a lot of Democrats in the legislature, but that's local. Many people who vote Dem in a local election would always vote for a Rep in a state of national election. Alabama and some other states are like that.

Like I said, I have no idea if I'm right or not, we'll find out in 48 hours or so. :)

[Blue_In_AK]

18. No, that's not correct.

The breakdown is 15% Democrats, 26% Republicans and the rest are registered as independent, undeclared, nonpartisan, or some small party. I just checked these figures with the Division of Elections website a couple of days ago. That's the way it's always been here. The vast majority of people are not affiliated with either major party. Here's the link to the statistics. The composite is at the very end of the chart. http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/vi_vrs_stats_party_2010.08.03.htm

[Ter]

26. OK you are right, but...

It's still 70% conservative or so. Most of those independents aren't liberal. Some are secessionists.

[Blue_In_AK]

27. No, you're still not correct,

but who am I, an Alaskan, to argue with someone from New Jersey? :rofl:

[Ter]

29. I've been all over, but never to Alaska

However, I'm obsessed with politics, and study every state. It is not blue friendly to say the least. Liberals are just a small minority, but we'll see. Democrats can win statewide, but the circumstances have to be extraordinary, like this one.

[saltpoint]

23. I want to see a poll that has McAdams soaring into an

insurmountable lead and Joe Miller drawing literally eleven votes.

In the off-chance that that doesn't happen, I'd settle for a narrow victory for McAdams.

[David Zephyr]

28. McAdams may just be the big surprise of the evening.

Come on Alaska!

[MixedDetroitman]

30. Wow. PPP really screwed up on this one

Murkowsky ended up with 41%.

[obama14]

31. As per Fux McAdams bows out