Final PA Tracking Poll Shows Independents Evenly Split in PA Senate Race

[liskddksil]

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Final Tracking Poll

Toomey - 48 (+3)
Sestak - 44 (+1)

The good news is that independents are evenly split 41-41. The bad news is that 19% of Dems are crossing over to Toomey while only 13% of Republicans are crossing over to Sestak. Yet this sample shows that Dems are only represented by 2% more than the GOP. Whereas the actual registration gap is much higher, a million voters. If Democrats can unite in the last 48 hours around Sestak, and turn out at 2006 or higher levels, this race is definitely winnable.

[book_worm]

1. that's pretty much what PPP found--indies close but high Dem crossover

but you are right if more dems than predicted show up to vote then Sestak has a chance.

[ps1074]

2. Something is wrong with the sample

There is no way every fifth (20%) democrat cross over and vote for someone to the right or Santorum. Usually the cross over vote is 7-10%. In 2006, when Casey beat Santorum by 18 poins (59 - 41), the dem cross over vote was 7% and the republican cross over vote was 14%. If 20% of the democrats indeed vote for Toomey, it will be a blowout of similar proportions.

The other fishy thing is the likely voter model. There are about 1 million more democrats in PA than republicans. For Toomey to win an election where the independents split even, he'll need a presidential election year republican turnout and a middterm election year democratic turnout. I doubt republicans are THAT more energized.

[BlueMTexpat]

3. I'm very much hoping that you are right!

Keeping my fingers crossed!

[Cosmocat]

7. Yeah ...

in this cycle where the MSM and Rs are painting Ds as puppy beating space aliens, I can see more cross over than normal, but 20 percent crossover from a DARN good candidate like Sestak and to a VERY right wing guy like Toomey is just really hard to believe ...

Last three big state elections, Casey, Rendell and BO, the poll averages have undershot the D percentage by about 2 to 3 points ... You noted the Casey 59-41 win over Santorum, the RCP average of polls going into that election was near spot on with Santorum at 41 percent, but Casey was only at 54 or so ... They undershot both Rendell and BO's final percentage by a few points, too ...

I think we are seeing the pollsters in mass having the story drive the analysis this cycle, but I think that has been the case in Pa for the last two cycles with the MSM WANTING the state to be more "in play" than it was ...

It is in play this time for sure, but I think they likely are short selling what Sestak has as they did with Casey, Rendell and BO ... IF it is within two points or so going in, I think that makes it even ...

[saltpoint]

4. I'm hoping that crossover percentage is somehow

off and that Sestak will keep it within normal range and go on to win this one.

Toomey is as extreme as Angle, IMO, and more dangerous because he behaves like a normal person.

I'm rootin' for Joe.

[Cosmocat]

5. He has run a real stealth campaign, and worse ...

if the entire nation did not collectively have its head up its rear end, the man is a hard right WALL STREETER ... The Rs and MSM have the sheep going down so many stinking rabbit holes, but where everyone SHOULD Be fired up about is wall streeters, and this guy is probably the biggest wall streeter running this election ...

But, thousands and thousands of spooky ads about sestak and whatever else ...

[saltpoint]

6. Yes. The Far Right has the fat wallet.

Especially after the Supreme Court opened the floodgates.

I hope someind of clarity and common sense prevails and that the blue turnout is enough across the state to give Joe a win here.