Quinnipiac Poll--final PA survey: Toomey (R) 50% Sestak (D) 45%

[WI_DEM]

Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey holds a 50 - 45 percent likely voter lead over Democratic U.S Rep. Joe Sestak in the race to be Pennsylvania's next U.S. senator, while Republican Tom Corbett, the attorney general, is cruising with a 52 - 42 percent lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County executive, in the race for governor, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today.


The GOP candidates' domination among independent voters is the reason for their leads, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey conducted by live interviewers and completed Saturday, finds. Toomey leads Sestak among independents 52 - 39 percent and Corbett does even better, leading 53 - 34 percent among independent voters.


"The candidates each hold their party bases pretty well, each getting more than 80 percent of the votes of their own party members," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But it is independent voters, as is often the case in close elections, that swings the balance of power."


In the governor's race overall, 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and 14 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind. More Onorato supporters, 17 percent, say that is the case than the 11 percent of Corbett backers.


"It is difficult to see how Dan Onorato becomes Pennsylvania's next governor," said Brown.


Likely voters give Onorato a 40 - 36 percent favorability rating compared to Corbett's 51 - 25 percent rating.


In the Senate race, 5 percent of likely voters are undecided and 13 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. Here too, slightly more of the Democratic candidate's supporters say they might change their mind than those backing Toomey.


Toomey's favorable/unfavorable ratio is 47 - 32 percent compared to Sestak's 40 - 40 percent split with the likely voter pool.


"The Senate race has been neck-and-neck most of the way with Toomey slightly ahead. It looks like that is how the candidates will cross the finish line," said Brown.


From October 25 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,244 Pennsylvania likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1529&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

[mikelgb]

1. Toomey and Sestak are running for the Presidency?

:shrug:

[WI_DEM]

2. I don't understand your question

does it say somewhere in the article that they are running for president?

[mikelgb]

6. No, but you posted this in General Discussion: Presidency

does the ": Presidency" mean anything to you?

[polichick]

7. Good grief, I hope you're kidding. nt

[KingFlorez]

8. This board is full of talk about Senate polls and such

Not sure what your point is.

[golfguru]

10. Was Obama a senator before he was elected president?

How about McCain, Dole, Humphrey, JFK, LBJ, McGovern?

Oh yes, senators are very relevant towards presidency.

Besides do you know of a "General Discussion - Senators"
board here?

[ps1074]

3. Hmmm

PA party registration numbers:
Democrats - 4 311 000 - 50,7%
Republicans - 3 132 000 - 36.85%
Others - 1 000 000 - 11,8%

Total registered voters - 8 500 000

I jsut ran some numbers and for this to be true, the dem turnout must be 40% and the republican turnout must be 60%. Even then, the difference is less than 5%. If you belive the voter enthusiasm gap will be more than 20%, then you will believe Toomey is ahead by 5%.

[WI_DEM]

4. that is the big question of all of these polls, are the likely voter models correct

if so then it could be a long night for dems--if not, dems may surprise.

[ps1074]

5. yes, but it is really hard to believe

It is really hard to believe the enthusiasm is so big. For Toomey to win this, republicans will need 2 in 3 republicans to vote versus only 1 in 3 democrats to vote. Unbelievable.

[Imajika]

9. Are you assuming all these registered Dems are voting Dem?

For a Republican to win they need to get a lot of crossover vote, and Toomey will get quite a bit.

You have to remember, the country has far more registered Democrats than Republicans. Many, many registered Democrats will vote Republican - especially in an election season like this.

For a very long time Democrats dominated at the state and local level. That registration gap still exists today.

Remember Reagan Democrats right? There are lots of those kind of voters.

[enough already 2]

11. I can't fucking believe this is going to happen

I live in Pa. I can't imagine these two neanderthals being anywhere near power, particularly Toomey.

[femmocrat]

12. This makes me ill.

What the hell is wrong with PA voters?