Final Fox News/ Pulse Polls for NV, CO, IL, WA

[WI_DEM]

The latest surveys were conducted on Oct. 30 by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News. Each survey included 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 points.

The latest Fox News Battleground state poll shows Republican Sharron Angle now leading Reid by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Reid dropped two points from the last Fox poll of the Silver State two weeks ago

Colorado Republican Ken Buck is closing strong in his bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

Buck gained 4 points from the Fox News battleground state poll taken two weeks ago and now leads Bennet 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. For a Senate challenger to be leading so late and be above 50 percent is a serious sign that Bennet may be headed for defeat.

The race for Colorado governor also continues to show American Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo closing in on Democrat John Hickenlooper, now trailing by a scant 3 points. Republican Dan Maes has largely been abandoned by members of his party for Tancredo, a former five-term Republican member of the House.

Hickenlooper now takes 47 percent of the vote to Tancredo’s 44 percent. Maes drew just 6 percent support, down from 10 percent two weeks ago. Seventy three percent of Republicans backed Tancredo over their party’s nominee.


Republican chances to capture the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama are improving markedly in final days of the election.

Rep. Mark Kirk doubled his 2-point lead in last week’s Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, and now leads Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent.

Giannoulias continues to suffer from Democratic defections to Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, who drew 6 percent support, including 8 percent of Democrats.

In the state’s gubernatorial election, Republican state Sen. Bill Brady added a point to his margin over incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn from last week’s poll. Brady now leads Quinn by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent. In this race, the Democrat is suffering at the hands of two minor candidates, the Green Party’s Rich Whitney and independent Scott Lee Cohen.

Whitney and Cohen are taking a combined 10 percent of the vote, largely from Democrats or liberal-leaning voters. Cohen, a successful pawnbroker, won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor but was chased out of the race by Quinn and others after allegations of domestic violence emerged.


Incumbent Sen. Patty Murray has grabbed a narrow lead in the final Fox News battleground poll in Washington State.

Murray leads Republican challenger Dino Rossi by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, in the poll of likely voters. Three weeks ago, Rossi led by 1 point and Murray led by 1 percent in late September. The race seems certain to head down to the wire.

Democratic Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has been unable to close the gap between him and his Republican challenger, former Rep. John Kasich.

Strickland needed to see a breakthrough in this last Fox News Battleground state poll of likely Ohio voters, but instead still trails by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/11/01/fox-news-polls-republicans-finish-strong-key-states-eve-election/

[still_one]

1. What is a likely voter, and how is that determined? /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. By His Or Her Likelihood To Vote

Respectfully, that's pretty well established.

[still_one]

3. and his or her likelihood to vote means they are republican, white, and older, and those NOT likely

to vote are Democratic, young, and minority

at least that is what I have read, along with whether they own a landline or not

It is well established by who?

Past history, which isn't always a reflection of future events

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. About 60% Of Registered Voters Vote In General Elections

About 40% of registered voters vote in mid term elections

At this point looking at the intentions of all registered voters is pretty much meaningless.

To determine how likely a person is to vote is they ask the person how likely it is they will vote, how many times did they vote in the past, do they know who the candidates are, do they know where their polling place is, et cetera.

[still_one]

5. Thanks for the insight /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. But Your Point Is A Good One

We know what a registered voter is. You either are or you aren't. Defining a likely voter is much more difficult. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. But ,again, looking at the intentions of registered voters, on the eve of an election is not very helpful.

It is interesting to see the wide divergence in so many polls between the intentions of registered and likely voters because it is commonly assumed non voters and voters share essentially the same attitudes; i.e. if everybody voted the results would be the same. If these likely voter numbers hold up that assumption will be brought into question.

[HughMoran]

6. The text is strangely biased in favor of Republicans

I wonder why that is? :boring:

[WI_DEM]

8. very true because all of those states are actually within margin of error

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Because It's Fox

I told my girlfriend that I wouldn't be surprised if the Repubs have a big night that they have confetti falling from the rafters at FOX and they start popping champagne bottles.

They are the media arm of the Republican National Committee.