My final look at the Governor's races and predictions

[WI_DEM]

My Predictions:

Democratic wins
Arkansas
New Hampshire
New York
Colorado
Connecticut
Maryland
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Vermont
Minnesota
Ohio
Oregon
California
Florida

Analysis:
The three I'm less than certain about are Florida, Connecticut and Ohio. The GOP has the momentum, it seems, in the Governor's race in CT. Two recent polls have Foley leading narrowly, but I believe if the Senate race goes solidly for Blumenthal that it will be enough to pull Malloy over the line. Ohio, clearly Strickland has the momentum according to several polls--even if Kasich is narrowly leading. Also, Strickland appears to have a lead in early voting--PPP put it at five-points. In Florida, Sink recently has had a small lead in most polls. I'm hoping that Meek still being in the Senate race will bring out a strong African-American vote. I am worried about statistics showing that the GOP has a big lead in early voting, however.

GOP wins:
Nebraska
Wyoming
Alabama
Michigan
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Arizona
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Utah
Illinois
Iowa
Nevada
Maine
Georgia
Wisconsin
Texas
New Mexico

Independent:
Rhode Island (Chafee)

Analysis:
Early on I had hopes for Wisconsin, but it appears WI will not be friendly territory for Dems on November 2. I haven't seen one major independent poll showing Danish ahead in New Mexico. Mitchell in Maine is being hurt by an independent candidate. I also had hopes for Texas but appears that Goodhair is pulling away. Most major polls in IL show Quinn down 4-8 points.

Democratic pick-ups (6) Hawaii, Vermont, Minnnesota, California, Connecticut, Florida

GOP pick-ups (11) Wyoming, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Wisconsin, New Mexico

Independent pick-up (1) Rhode Island

Right now I'm predicting a net pick-up in Governorships for the GOP of 4 (with Dems taking 6 GOP governorships and independent taking 1 GOP governorship, while GOP picks up 11 Democratic governorships). If Dems actually do carry CA and FL--those would be two big bragging rights for Dems. However, I wouldn't be surprised if GOP picks up between 4-6 Governorships.

[ananda]

1. People will get what they voted for.

I hope they are ready for it, but I kinda doubt it. Those whirling target
glasses are firmly fixed right now.