Myth-Busting Election Night Coverage

[Joanne98]

On election night pundits fill air time speculating on what it means if a particular race is or is not called by the media. I have been inside the boiler rooms calling election outcomes for the media since 2002, so I know how this works in practice. While not as cool as blowing up stuff -- like the Mythbusters do -- here are some election night myths that I will bust to help you cut through the election night chatter:

MYTH 1: Exit Polls Are Used to Call Elections. The primary purpose of exit polls is to help explain why people voted the way they did. If an exit poll confirms pre-election polling predicting a wide victory margin for a candidate, they may sometimes be used to call a race at poll closing. For any of the competitive races, actual election results are used to call the election outcome.

MYTH 2: Early Exit Polls Provide a Sense How the Election Will Unfold. In the vacuum of time before races are being called, the media may report some cross-tabulations from the exit polls. This may give an impression as to how the election may play out if a key demographic group is breaking in one direction or another. While exit polls are useful because they are known to sample from the universe of voters -- unlike "likely voter" models -- there are numerous survey methodology issues beyond statistical sampling error that may affect exit poll results. The direction and magnitude of these errors are revealed when actual election results from the exit poll precincts are compared to the survey results. This error is known as "Within-Precinct Error" or WPE. Once election results are reported, the exit polls are weighted to the election results. Take any exit poll results released before election results are reported with a boulder of salt. The early exit poll results will likely change once the exit polls are weighted to the election results.

MYTH 3. The Speed of Calling a Race is an Indicator of a Close Race. This is one of my pet peeves. Pundits will tell us that we will know the overall direction of the election on how quickly a particular race is called. The premium is making the right call, not making it quickly. The folks in the boiler rooms wait for hard election data to call the high profile races, with a good cross-section of election results from throughout a state. If a heavily Democratic or Republican area of a state is not reporting, the race-callers will wait until that region reports. Sometimes a region takes their time to report their election results -- for whatever reason -- and races within that state cannot be called until they do. So, while it is true that close races are not called early, it is not true that all uncalled races are close.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/myth-busting-election-nig_b_777639.html

[Bitwit1234]

1. Well during Kerry's lost exit polls didn't mean anything did they

An overwhelming wave of voters said they were voting Democratic, person after person after person. BUT when the votes were (""counted??"") Bush won. How come. I will never understand that. Republicans are the ones who say oh the exit polls will tell, did they.

[Supersedeas]

2. probably not a topic of the corporate conversation tonight