ABC exit poll - not good

[ps1074]

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/2010_elections/National?ep=house

Male (49%) - voted for Democrat 43% - voted for republican 55%
Female (51%) - voted for democrat 49% - voted for republican 48%

If these numbers are really true - it means a 5% republican lead in the generic ballot.

[KingFlorez]

1. This will come down to individual races

If we can pull out victories in all the right places, we win. Hopefully, we can perform well in those races.

[Renew Deal]

2. And an 11% lead is a big problem

[DrToast]

3. Demographics seem weird

I know minorities vote less in midterms, but 79% of the respondents being white seems very high.

[bornskeptic]

27. ccording to the Bureau of the Census, as of 2009 79.6% of the US population is white.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

[karynnj]

29. Thanks - I thought it was less as well.

[DrToast]

33. Not true

Hispanics are included in that number. Scroll down to white persons not Hispanic. That's 65.1%.

[prolesunited]

4. Polls aren't even closed

and it's a generic ballot. It's not even from today.

Why are you posting this shit?

[ps1074]

8. it's not even from today?

it says 2010 elections exit polls. I believe it is from today.

[vaberella]

13. How do they get the numbers for this?! Did you wonder about that?

It makes no sense. Try not to eat everything the MSM puts out there.

[onenote]

23. why do you think it can't be from today. do you think they don't tabulate results until the end?

Its an exit poll. Folks have been voting and exiting all day long. They've been polled all day long. There is nothing odd about exit poll results coming out during the day while the polls are open. I recall people relishing the results of similar polls in 2008.

[Aramchek]

5. leave that trash at ABC. up until an hour ago, they had Breitbart in their Election Coverage

[vaberella]

10. +1. n/t

[Blue Owl]

6. I'm not worried

This poll (brought to you by the people who almost hired Andrew Brietbart) is all they fucking got to cling to.

[DrToast]

7. Things may be bad, but early exit polls aren't very reliable.

[Quixote1818]

9. .

[Bombtrack]

11. Sorry about my gender n/t

[stopbush]

12. Er, it's a 5-point difference. You need to adjust for the percentages

as they are calculated against the sample. Women make up 51% of the sample, so X% of 51 is more than X% of 49, etc.

If women made up 75% of the sample, men 25%, then 100% of the men voting one way would be equivalent to 33% of the women voting one way.

Simple math.

[Sheepshank]

15. I couldn't figure out how to say it...

nice job...not worried. and for thosE with the simple math....it DOES NOT equal an 11% difference

[ps1074]

18. Yeah, sorry - more like 5%

eom

[Raine1967]

14. It's been a decade since anyone did exit polls.

F*ck ABC (America Breitbart Corporation) and Screw the exit polls.


This is the last gasp at their stupid f*cking enthusiasm gap meme.

BE American: VOTE and screw the exit polls.

[karynnj]

20. They did a real exit poll in 2004 - and I've seen none since then

[Drunken Irishman]

24. They did exit polls in 2008.

They didn't leak 'em, tho. Every news organization does exit polls for major elections.

[karynnj]

28. They not only did not leak them - they did not really use them to predict races

until enough votes were on the screen to make it obvious. (I KNEW that Indiana was likely a win long before they called it - because it was close and nothing from northwest Indiana (DEM) was in because they are on Chicago time. )

[Drunken Irishman]

30. It depends...

If the exit polls had a candidate winning by a solid margin, they called the state. That's why they called Pennsylvania essentially as the polls closed. Thought to be a tight race, exit polls suggested Obama would win comfortably and they called it. Something similar happened in Ohio. I believe they called that state with only 20% of the vote in - which was in stark contrast to when they called it for Bush in 2004 (late into the night).

[karynnj]

31. Sorry - I didn't know that - as it was one year that I did not watch the returns

at home. I was with several other JK group people in MA at the Democratic celebration - which was awesome.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. I bet!

I was watching. I was surprised when Pennsylvania was called so early. Everyone kept saying it'd be close and the polls closed and essentially right as they closed, they called it for Obama. At that point I knew we'd win. Ohio was another surprise. I was watching FOX when they called it and Rove was doing the election coverage and talking about how Republicans can't lose Ohio and then...what do you know, they call it right there.

But you're right. In close, extremely tight races, they won't use exit polls until they feel comfortable enough. Which was not always the case. In 1992, they called Georgia for Clinton based on exit polls alone and that was right as the polls essentially closed. Clinton won Georgia by .06 points. That's how close it was. No way, in today's day and age, do they ever call a state if it's THAT close. But they did back then.

So even before the 2000 fiasco, they almost had egg on their face (though it wouldn't have mattered,as Clinton would have won even without Georgia's electoral votes).

[Quixote1818]

16. There is a bright spot there. Dems did better than Republicans in the West and East

Republicans killed us in the South where we were going to lose anyway. Where we may have the most damage is the Midwest.

[karynnj]

17. I suspect this is test data

It is not for a specific state or race and the demographics look wrong - the US has not been 79% white for a long time. Not to mention the polls are not closed and different people tend to vote at different times.

If you set this to any race - by picking a state and race, you get,

"No data currently exists. Please check back once polls close in this state."

The data already in there is likely from their regular poll.

[golfguru]

19. Exit polls

These are NOT official results, just exit polls:
Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)

[northernlights]

21. if you understood statistics, you'd know that does NOT mean an 11% republican lead...

You'd also know that, as presented, those numbers are meaningless. Even fully presented, probably not real meaningful.

In a very red state, say Idaho, you could have republicans outnumbering democrats 2:1.

In a very blue state, it may be closer, but with the dems ahead.

[Phx_Dem]

22. It shows the media was full of shit when it said Dems have lost women.

[Jennicut]

25. I would take 5% over the 15% Gallup was shoving down our throats.

The House would be a closer loss and we could easily win it back in 2012.

[DrToast]

26. Yep. 5% would be underperforming the polls for the GOP

It's still enough to lose the House if it's true, but it wouldn't be as bad as some were worried about.

[defendandprotect]

34. Where in the hell are the other 51% of males ... and 49% of females ...????

Looks like efforts to suppress the voting comes naturally to both Dems and

Repugs--!!!

It's the POPULIST stuff that brings them out!!

We need a "legalize marijuana" referendum for NJ in 2012!!