Good News (Potentially): Rep Chandler (D) up in KY-06 bellwether.

[jefferson_dem]

Everyone (Nate, Cook, etc.) had KY-06 as a toss-up. It has been referred to as a key bellwether, at least insofar as we have such things.

Democrat Chandler is up 53/47 now, with 55% in. http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/kentucky

Picking the bellwethers in the national bellwether 6th District
October 31, 2010 By Ryan Alessi 1 Comment

As the election returns first start to slowly trickle in Tuesday evening, pundits will be focused on Kentucky, and specifically Central Kentucky, to try to get a handle on what kind of night it will be.

The 6th Congressional District, which covers a tightly-bunched group of 16 Central Kentucky counties, is on every national observers’ watch list. And votes for incumbent Democrat Ben Chandler and Republican challenger Andy Barr will be among the first to be counted.

The Cook Report, Rothenburg Report and New York Times have rated the Chandler-Barr contest as a toss-up for the last two weeks. And Nate Silver at the Times’ fivethirtyeight blog set up his Election Night hour-by-hour tracker on Sunday.

Each seat has a “magic number” of how many seats the Republicans are likely to take if they win that particular seat. In the case of Kentucky’s 6th District, Silver has calculated a net gain of 62 if Barr unseats Chandler. The GOP needs to pick up 39 to take control of the chamber.

Although Silver did offer a caveat:

I’d be a little bit more cautious about reading too much into the two Kentucky districts on our chart, the 6th and the 3rd, just because Kentucky is a fairly idiosyncratic state to begin with, and both the polling and the Senate race have been strange there. Still, John Yarmuth’s 3rd district, which encompasses Louisville, reflects a strong potential upside case for the G.O.P. if they were to win it.

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis, a Republican who represents Kentucky’s 4th District, told Pure Politics that he believed if Barr upsets Chandler, it would mean a Republican wave of more than 60 seats. If the race is a nailbiter, it will likely mean a net gain of 50-55 seats, Davis said.

So what should Kentuckians be looking for to get a handle on the direction Barr and Chandler’s race is going

<SNIP>

http://politics.mycn2.com/2010/10/31/picking-the-bellwethers-in-the-national-bellwether-6th-district/

[book_worm]

1. yeah--do it!!

[Cognitive_Resonance]

2. He's hanging strong 53%-47% with 358/640 precincts (56%)

Good sign!

[Drunken Irishman]

3. If his margin stays above 50% (51-53) with 70% in, he'll win.

[Tansy_Gold]

4. I'm reccing this just because some spelled bellwether correctly!

:evilgrin:


TG, NTY

[Robbins]

5. Good

This Is sign of Democrats could keep the house.

[FBaggins]

7. No it isn't. But it's a sign that we might not lose 60-70.

Unfortunately, there are some comparably endangered seats in IN that are way off in the other direction.

What it boils down to? It's too early to get a good handle on the bigger picture yet... and if you're in the East, it's too late to do anything but watch.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Right.

Perhaps this will help set the firewall in place and then we'll see what the damage is.

[jefferson_dem]

6. KY-06 -- 2008: McCain (R) 55%, Obama (D) 43%. 2004: Bush (R) 58%, Kerry (D) 41%

[FBaggins]

8. KY-06 -- 2008: Chandler wins 65%-35%

n/t

[Jennicut]

9. It has been called for Yarmuth. At least their is a check next to his name

as the projected winner. http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/kentucky

[HughMoran]

10. Looks OK so far for these incumbent Democrats

Chandler up 6, they called the race for Yarmuth!

[book_worm]

11. Hot dog!

[HughMoran]

13. Crap! Chandler is up by only 2 points now.

Chandler , Ben (i) Dem 81,829 51%
Barr , Andy GOP 79,748 49%

[jefferson_dem]

14. Tight as a tick...

:scared:

[vaberella]

15. Is Kentucky gonna go blue?! huh. n/t

[HughMoran]

16. Not exactly

These two are incumbents trying to hold onto their seats.

[vaberella]

17. Oh...kk. n/t

[HughMoran]

18. Holy crap - Chandler up by only 147 votes with 96% reporting

Yikes - another nail biter.