My very pessimistic prediction about the next two years: how the Republicans will keep winning.

[EmilyAnne]

I keep hearing people say that the coming gridlock will play into the Democrats' hands because we will be able to blame the Republicans for being obstructionists.
That's a nice thought, but they have already been obstructing every chance they can, they proudly declared this as their chief strategy from the moment President Obama was elected and the electorate does not seem to have much of a problem with any of it.
I think that the Republicans having control of the House will now make the Democrats look like obstructionists.

This is how I think the next two years will play out:

ANY attempts at legislation in the next two years will be subject to Republican whim.
They will get all the credit for any legislative action, even if the action is unsuccessful.

How will this happen?
Republicans in the house will present their bullshit.
The conservadems in the House, terrified of losing their jobs after seeing what happened last night, will vote for this legislation so they don't appear to be too liberal.
They can then claim to be able to reach beyond party lines, be bipartisan, etc.

Then the legislative battle will be taken to the Democratic Senate where the ruling Democrats will look like obstructionists. The House will say, "on NOV 2, 2010 the American people spoke and elected us to do our stupid thing. And all the Democrats do is block us at every turn."

The Republicans will come up with all sorts of BS legislation. None of it will need to be practical, sane nor possible. It doesn't matter. The disastrous results of their policies will never be seen because they will never be passed. The loaded jargon will be blasted from the floor of the House, Senate and the MSM. Americans will believe that these bills are the answer to our financial problems. Shit, they will believe that these bills are the answer to their personal financial problems. Americans will remain ignorant about basic economic principles.

Come 2012, people will be fed up with the obstructionist Democrats who won't let any of these wonderful bills pass.

If the Democratic Senate does actually pass some Republican House authored bills, the Republicans will take credit for being the authors.

If the Democratic Senate introduces a bill to the Republican House, the Republicans will unilaterally strike them down, but they won't be seen as obstructionists because, after all, they're only the House. The Democrats are the ones with the real power of the Senate and the Presidency.

So, please, tell me how this is not possible.
Tell me how this is not consistent with the Republicans we have been dealing with for the last two years.

[BootinUp]

1. You are presuming that the republicans can hold together the same

as they have. There will be some splintering on their side, especially as rhetoric heats up from our side based on them having more responsibility. We already know that the teabaggers are looking for a fight with their own party.

[EmilyAnne]

3. God, I hope you are right.

It just seems that despite all of their idiocy, they will all come together and vote in lockstep.
Especially now that they have tasted a bit of victory.

[mazzarro]

6. Rethugs Splintering Will Not Be Important

It is the messaging that accompany their actions that will matter. The rethugs and Faux Noise - dutifully followed by the MSM will frame the issues as detailed in OP and the Dems, as usual, will be ham-fisted and not be able to meet that challenge and will rather duck and hide from the fight. I think we are in for a rough ride for quite a while unless someone with the caliber and vision of Gov. Howard Dean takes over the DNC to start confronting the DLCers in the Democratic party!

[iamjoy]

2. Sorry, Can't Do It

I share your fear. Heck, the Democrats had 60 seats in the Senate and still whimpered and cowered before Republicans. They aren't going to be able to even come close to stopping filibusters now. And I think House Republicans claiming good bills are held up in the Senate.

We never quite learned how to sell ourselves did we? The "Liberal" media sure hasn't helped.

Americans thought the measly healthcare reform that passed was socialized medicine, rather than additional regulations on the insurance industry. They believed President Obama was behind the bank bailout and the stimulus didn't create a single job.

[hollowdweller]

4. Totally Agree

Now it could go exactly the opposite, with Dems introducing legislation that has broad popular support, allowing the GOP to stop it and hitting THEM as obstructionists, defining them.

BUT- So many dems are in the pocket of big money they will never do this, because any legislation that would be popular with the public that would show a difference between the GOP and the Dems would be unpopular with the big money donors.

Look for instance at financial reform. The dems did not crack down as hard as public opinion would have allowed. They watered the bill down. The GOP was able to say "It doesn't end too big to fail" and were actually able to gain the populist high ground on it.

Look at health care. The public option was popular. Allowing medicare to bargain on prescription drug prices and bills allowing reimportation to drive down costs was popular. Yet to please the big money donors the dems abandoned those popular reforms and included the mandate and some cost savings from medicare. This allowed the GOP to actually take a populist high ground on it about gov't mandates and cutting medicare.

Look at the jobs offshoring bill. Popular. Bogged down in the senate.

The Dems have good ideas they are just too beholden to industry to write a clean bill and too crappy at politics to write legislation they can spin to their advantage.


SO, the GOP will win as you say.

[doc03]

5. I can see them coming up with one bill after another to

abolish every tax in existence. Of course the Senate will have to kill it and the Democrats will get the blame as always. Then you have Obama and his cat food commission, their number one agendas will be to cut SS and the Democrats being spineless will go for it. Then one thing for sure the Democrats will get all the blame, hell the Republicans may even block it in the House and claim they saved SS. They got time they will be able to abolish it all together in 2013.

[sweetapogee]

7. I think

the senate will introduce very little in the way of major legislation between now and 2012. They really have nothing to gain and everything to loose. The house pukes on the other hand must introduce legislation, make good on promises.

How does all this play out?

It is true that we still hold the senate, however (and I have mentioned this in the past), we have 21 + 2 indie seats up for re-election (compared to 10 puke seats) in 2012. Some of those up for re-election are in states like PA (my state) which just went solid puke.

I give an example of three senators that may well vote with pukes are: Nelson (FL), Casey (PA) and Brown (OH). This is not good for President Obama 2012 no matter how we try to spin it. The republicans can make budget cuts in areas that will not affect much, offer tax cuts and the economy may just improve on it's own due to economic cycles. I respectfully disagree with the OP, in my opinion the senate dems have less power even with a slight numbers edge due to the fact that so many dems are up for re-election next cycle. Given the difficulties dems had passing legislation with a 9 seat advantage this cycle makes it hard for me to see anything other than a center/right leaning senate.

If someone could offer a rational rebuttal, please do so.

[GOTV]

8. Yes, the GOP will continue to make it clear that they cannot save America no matter what happens

... because of Obama and his evil Dem henchmen.

And if we continue to act like everything is alright and we're getting such great stuff done the GOP wins again.