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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:40 AM
Original message
Trying to make sense of the election
More than 30 blue dogs lost in the House.

Alan Grayson lost.

House blue dogs Charlie Melancon and Brad Ellsworth ran for Senate and got crushed.

Blanche Lincoln got crushed.

Russ Feingold and Joe Sestak lost. Paul Hodes got crushed.

What was the problem: Not progressive enough or too progressive compared to the Republicans/teabaggers who won? Did the candidate who lost support the President's agenda too much or not enough?

These were not national elections. They were very much the result of the dynamics in each state. The media, local and national, likely played a significant role in the outcomes.

Also, there are still a lot of people who vote in Presidential elections and simple don't vote in mid-terms, and it appears the party out of power is always more motivated.

Was complacency a problem? Was it apathy?





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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
1. Could be they were outspent; people
might buy what the roves of the world were selling because they weren't interested enough to delve into the differences between candidates. And the economy; lots of angry people wanted to 'throw the bums out', again without thinking it through and recognizing they were voting the same bums back in who screwed up the economy in the first place.

Very disheartening. We lost some good people.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Exactly
"'throw the bums out', again without thinking it through and recognizing they were voting the same bums back in who screwed up the economy in the first place."

A lot of incumbents lost, except in safe red or blue.

Another thing is that a few Senate races involved no incumbents IL, KY, ND and WVA. The races in IN, LA, NH and PA involved incumbents from the House. Dems came very close in PA and IL, where there was a Green and a Lib candidate in the race.

Of those eight races, Dems won only one.

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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:46 AM
Response to Original message
2. It was weak Dem policies that didn't do enough to help people who've lost jobs and homes and 401K's.
The Fat Cats went unpunished and got fatter. The foreclosures continued - even on bogus paperwork. Compromises with Rethugs and corporations lead to weak, watered down legislation. Health care? OMG.

Obama failed to LEAD. He was weak. And so much was a continuation of the BUSH bullshit - the wars, the spying.

Someone started a thread in GD: SQUANDERED. Word.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:48 AM
Response to Original message
3. 9.6 Unemployment Did Us In
I am in Grayson's district. Real unemployment U-6 or whatever they call it is 20%
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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. same here but the Democrats did nothing, no jobs, no HCR
and most of all the biggest missed opportunity in a lifetime,.........
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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
4. I have read many of your posts, I am not surprised you dont get it!
instead of lighting a fire under Barak Obama you wanted to through rose petals while knocking anyone who knew what BOs lack of action would bring. I voted straight dem and knew it would mean little or nothing. But I will always remember your harsh attacks.

Have a nice day
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Actually,
Edited on Wed Nov-03-10 08:07 AM by ProSense
you're the one who doesn't get it. See items 2-4 here.

You think a huge Republican win is a result of not being progressive enough?

Don't make me laugh!

"lighting a fire under Barak Obama you wanted to through rose petals "

Yeah, flowery speeches, pretty words, cult, Messiah and all that crap.

Give me a fucking break.

And it's "Barack."

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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. why dont you just move forward. hold while you still can
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
8. By working with the GOP in a spirit of bi-partisanship Obama/Dems failed to draw a clear distinction
The GOP did not appear to be a significant impediment to the goals of the Obama administration. We didn't get some of the big things we wanted and we know that that's largely because of the GOP and blue dogs but instead of the Obama admin going all out to get everything we wanted, then visibly and regrettably compromising to get something done and then making it clear we got so little because of conservatives in the House and Senate Obama quiently worked with both sides to get something that would pass and then told us how great it is.

So to the rest of the country that doesn't follow things as closely as we do, what do they see?

They see an Obama administration and a Dem establishment working happily to get something done and then getting a bunch of bills passed that they are oh so happy about. The GOP and the conservative establishment raises the kind of hell that wins elections and what's the conclusion: Obama and the Dems got what they wanted and the country is going down the tubes.

How else can they vote?
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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. There you go eloquent and succinct, thank you!
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. I don't buy that
This was not a case of people not seeing the difference.

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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. I didn't say people don't see a difference
What they see is Obama and the Dems getting what they want. We see them cheering the HCR and finreg bills they got. What they don't see is a disappointed Obama who can't get what he needs to fix the economy because of the conservatives he has to work with.

So what should the voters do? We say "give Obama more and better democrats". But to people that don't read about politics every day that makes no sense. The Dems control everything. They're getting bills passed that they say are great (with only occasional grumbling that they would have liked to get about 10% more) and the economy still sucks. "What could Obama do with more Dems?" they think "Continue to get stuff he thinks is great but doesn't work? No thanks!" and "no thanks" is what they said.

The GOP on the other hand make it very clear that things are not going their way at all. Even though HCR is largely their ideas they still trash it. They WON on HCR and they still trashed it.

It's a pretty start contrast.

You sound confused on why the election went the way it did. You link to a column that brings out exit polls that the writer uses to stress that the results are "strikingly crazy". You are both confused because you don't understand how the voters see the last two years. The voting electorate are not crazy. They may be poorly informed and they may be lazy thinkers but they are not crazy. They are voting for what they perceive is in their best interest. If you and Steve Benen can only conclude they are crazy, you will not be able to figure out how to win the next election.

Don't buy what I'm selling if you don't want but to me it seems like a clear and straightforward explanation of why the election went the way it did. If you don't agree find an explanation that you like that doesn't depend on the voters being crazy.








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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Perfect
What they see is Obama and the Dems getting what they want. We see them cheering the HCR and finreg bills they got. What they don't see is a disappointed Obama who can't get what he needs to fix the economy because of the conservatives he has to work with.

By all account, they don't see any of it. Remember the claim is that the Dems messaging failed, and most people don't know what this WH and Congress have accomplished.

So what should the voters do? We say "give Obama more and better democrats". But to people that don't read about politics every day that makes no sense. The Dems control everything. They're getting bills passed that they say are great (with only occasional grumbling that they would have liked to get about 10% more) and the economy still sucks. "What could Obama do with more Dems?" they think "Continue to get stuff he thinks is great but doesn't work? No thanks!" and "no thanks" is what they said.

How does that translate to a voting out Democrats and giving Republicans about 60 more seats in the House?

The GOP on the other hand make it very clear that things are not going their way at all. Even though HCR is largely their ideas they still trash it. They WON on HCR and they still trashed it.

You seem to thing that do nothing was the solution. Do you really believe that whatever health care bill had passed, Republicans wouldn't have trashed it with the same results?

You sound confused on why the election went the way it did. You link to a column that brings out exit polls that the writer uses to stress that the results are "strikingly crazy". You are both confused because you don't understand how the voters see the last two years. The voting electorate are not crazy. They may be poorly informed and they may be lazy thinkers but they are not crazy. They are voting for what they perceive is in their best interest. If you and Steve Benen can only conclude they are crazy, you will not be able to figure out how to win the next election.

No, actually I'm not. This was expected. There was no need to believe the trend would be different. In fact, keeping the Senate is a huge coup.

The confusion comes from believing that there is logic to be applied here. That if the President had done it your way or any number of other people's way, the outcome would be different and more positive.

Don't buy what I'm selling if you don't want but to me it seems like a clear and straightforward explanation of why the election went the way it did. If you don't agree find an explanation that you like that doesn't depend on the voters being crazy.

That's the other problem, selling stuff isn't going to change anything. Selling Grayson's way didn't help him keep his seat. Selling Feingold's way didn't help him keep his seat. Feingold ran on health care reform, and was damn proud of it.

The only thing left now is to sell Howard Dean as the party's savior, and that misses the point of this election.




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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. I do think that different actions could have resulted in a different outcome
By all account, they don't see any of it. Remember the claim is that the Dems messaging failed, and most people don't know what this WH and Congress have accomplished.


I agree. I wasn't saying they understood the content of HCR or finreg. Yes the Dems messaging failed, that's clear, they lost. If their messaging goal was look at the good stuff in these bills they had to fail. These bills are too complicated and the explanations always have too many bullet points for people to digest and understand in numbers that sway elections. Also it was very easy to paint them as big government programs that even if they might do some good are too expensive for us to afford right now - all lies but an easy message to sell.

How does that translate to a voting out Democrats and giving Republicans about 60 more seats in the House?


It's simple isn't it? You vote out the guys that didn't fix your problems. Ah but we did fix their problems, you might say, right here in paragraph 231, subsection K, item 25,... bzzz! You lose.

One way you can avoid that kind of wrath is to concentrate your message on what you didn't get (not in the last month but from day one) and make clear whose fault that is. Don't say you got 90% of what you wanted and then not expect to get 90% of the punishment. If you got what you wanted, accomplished what you wanted to accomplish and I'm still hurting then I have no sympathy for you do I? Obama should not have said HCR is 90% of what we wanted and is a great triumph (or a fucking big deal) even if it is. He should have said HCR is deeply lacking since the Republicans would not let us add the public option and drug re-importation which we really wanted and maybe we can fix it in the next congress.

Then they should have done that with finreg and every other important piece of legislation.

You seem to thing that do nothing was the solution. Do you really believe that whatever health care bill had passed, Republicans wouldn't have trashed it with the same results?


I don't think Obama should have done nothing. I think he could have done less, I mean he did a lot and look how badly things went. OF COURSE the GOP would have trashed any alternative HCR bill and it would have had the same results if Obama and the Dems did the same thing. When the Obama administration passes the XYZ bill the GOP will say how it's the worst thing yet done by the admin. Unless the bill is so perfect that people will know the GOP is is just playing politics but if XYZ is flawed and missing pieces that were popular and easy sells to the voters don't tell them it's 90% of what they wanted. Tell people it's unfortunate that XYZ is as timid as it is but given the conservative climate in congress we just couldn't get better. "If I get a better congress in 2011 I promise I'll add the teeth to XYZ" he should be saying.

But what do they say? "XYZ is a historic bi-partisan bill that will finally solve the problems that have plagued us for decades. Working with leaders of both parties we've ... blah blah blah". If XYZ contains unfortunate compromises - the story should be about who caused those compromises.


That's the other problem, selling stuff isn't going to change anything.


Selling is how elections are won because, unfortunately, most voters will not go out and research the issues on their own.

Selling Grayson's way didn't help him keep his seat. Selling Feingold's way didn't help him keep his seat. Feingold ran on health care reform, and was damn proud of it.


Hey, I was a big proponent that Obama and the Dems should go way more progressive but I see the election results and I've modified my views. I see that a more progressive message did not protect anyone.

I learned from this election. Did you?


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alsame Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. And when you start off from a position of compromise in order
to be bi-partisan, you are giving too much credibility and respect to Republican ideas.

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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Yes. Obama's actions often appeared to say the GOP and I are not so far apart ...
He acted not like someone who saw the GOP calling him a socialist and accusing him of creating death panels. He acted like we all want the same thing we just differ slightly in the details.

He certainly did not act like our ideas are generally good and their ideas are generally bad and that his job is to push the GOP minority into the corner as much as possible.
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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-10 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
17. But for the teabaggers, it would have been much worse.
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