The Dems held their usual base--why the dems lost was Independent voters swung heavily to GOP

[book_worm]

Dems can't win an election alone--when we won in 06 & 08 it was with strong support from independents we didn't have it this time:

Independent voters, who in 2006 mostly voted for Democrats and helped end the Republicans’ 12-year majorities in the House and Senate, this time turned just as strongly against Democrats, according to surveys of voters who were leaving polling places. Two other groups who recently supported Democrats — suburban residents and college graduates — also gave Republican Congressional candidates more votes this year.

Democrats drew support from their traditional base — younger voters; blacks and Hispanics; those without high school diplomas and those with post-graduate education; less affluent voters; black women; union members; and Easterners.

Women have been among the Democrats’ most loyal supporters, giving them a majority of their votes in all but one of the past 14 election years. But the size of that traditional advantage appears to have narrowed this year. Since 1982, when exit polls first measured support, Republicans only once received the same share of women’s votes as Democrats — in 2002 — and Democrats lost their narrow Senate majority that year.

Voters who described themselves as moderates preferred Democrats by a significant margin, and liberals preferred them overwhelmingly. But the two groups were outnumbered by conservatives. Moderates were a smaller share of the electorate on Tuesday than they were in 2006.

While the survey results were good news for Republicans after two devastating election cycles, there were warning signs for the party’s long-term prospects.

The few demographic groups that preferred Democrats included some that are considered significant in the composition of the future electorate. One was voters under age 30. The others were Hispanics and Asian-Americans; both groups, which have objected to the Republicans’ tough stands against illegal immigration, are among the fastest-growing constituencies in the country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/03/us/03exit.html?src=mv

[Turbineguy]

1. Demographics don't fit

on a bumper-sticker.

RW ideology does.

[earthside]

2. I blame this development ...

... completely on President Obama's decision to go with the Wall Street insiders on economic policy.

Sorry, to say, independent voters came to understand that Pres. Obama and by extension the Democrats in Congress were not on their side. I, for one, do not blame Speaker Pelosi -- House Democrats did try to advance the populist, progressive agenda.

But, Pres. Obama's lack of fight for the things passed in the House poisoned the independent electorate ... they did not see him as a leader willing to go to the wall to fight on their behalf, even if it meant taking a loss.

And, my prediction is that once again this White House is going to try and relive the past and adopt Pres. Clinton's post-1994 strategy of moving to the right. It won't work this time because Clinton had a real, growing economy by 1996. If the Fed goes ahead with creating trillions of dollars out of the blue, we're going to have debilitating inflation by 2012 and Obama and the rest of elected Democrats will be defeated.

In other words, letting Pres. Obama off the hook for yesterday's severe rebuke is only going to encourage policies that will further destroy Democrats and progressives.

[chill_wind]

3. Which was predicted. And unemployment was the largest issue

driving the anger of Independents, whose ranks have grown in the last 2 years as the largest self-identified voting bloc.
Both parties have lost affiliates, but Dems appear to have lost more.

"According to the latest Gallup poll, 40% of Americans identify themselves as Independent, a higher percentage then either Democrat (30%) or Republican (26%). That's up from 33% Independent, 29% Republican and 37% Democrat at the same time last year. Clearly, both parties have lost affiliates, though the Democrats appear to have lost more than the Republicans."


from July:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/unemployment-fuels-independent-voters-anger/19557419/

[treestar]

4. What do they want, though?

Who are these independents, and what do they want?

Are they centrists? It would seem to be so.

Also factor in that fewer vote in midterms. Is it the independents? Base voters vote in midterms.