Looking ahead to the 2012 Senate races

[onenote]

Hopefully, we can regain our footing and our momentum and retake a number of House seats in 2012, although at this stage it would be absurd to start making predictions about how many, etc.

Of greater concern is our ability to hang on to our Senate majority. The numbers for 2012 are not particularly good: of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, only 10 are currently held by repubs, and only 2 of those look like good targets for pick ups -- Snowe in Maine and Brown in Massachussetts. The only other seat I see us having even a remote shot at taking would be Ensign in Nevada.

On the flip side, there will be 21 seats held by Democrats, and 2 seats held by independents (Lieberman and Sanders) on the line. Among those seats are a number of moderate to conservative Democrats in reddish/purple states that a lot DUers consider DINOs and would like to see cast aside -- both Nelsons, Jim Webb, McCaskill, Casey. Even some of the bluer state incumbents, such as Feinstein and Cantwell, have often been criticized here. Manchin has to face the voters again, so West VA could be in play.

Again, not making prediction. Just a head's up that we have our work cut out for us and that the way that some forty percent of the Democratic Senate caucus votes over the next two years may well be influenced by how they read the electoral tea leaves.


The Complete List of Senate seats up for grabs in 2012:



Democratic incumbent elections
Dianne Feinstein of California
Tom Carper of Delaware
Bill Nelson of Florida
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
Jim Webb of Virginia
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Independent incumbent elections
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Republican incumbent elections
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
John Ensign of Nevada
Bob Corker of Tennessee
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Orrin Hatch of Utah
John Barrasso of Wyoming

[pstokely]

1. It's a political lifetime away

The economy will still be the big issue. Higher turnout will help us in the bluest states. The purple states will have the biggest races

[Kber]

2. I was just wondering about this, actually.

somehow DU always comes through when I'm looking for information.

Thanks!

[Hawkeye-X]

3. I expect EVERY Democrat to challenge the incumbents

and primary those who are blue dog Dems with true blue Democrat.

Kyl, Lugar, Ensign, Wicker, Corker, Hutchinson, Hatch and Barrasso need to be outed and removed from 2012 Congress.

[onenote]

6. Good luck with winning senate seats in Texas, Utah, Mississippi,

Not. Going. To. Happen.

As I said, we should have at decent shot at unseating Snowe and Brown, and an outside shot at knocking off Ensign. But that's it. And we have our work cut out for us in holding onto some of the seats we now occupy.

[sadbear]

4. In 2006, we ran against bush. And we won.

We don't have bush to run against anymore. Hopefully by 2012, we can either have something to run for, or someone else to run against (perhaps Boehner and little mr. paul.)

[pstokely]

8. Maybe an improving economy

Or an obstructionist house

[karynnj]

5. Ensign may not run - I don't know what is happening with the ethics charges

Hatch will be 78 and Lugar 80 - but if things are like they are now winning in Nevada, Utah or Indiana would be tough.

[onenote]

7. As I said, Ensign's seat may be vulnerable. But whether its Hatch or anyone else

Utah is not in play. The illegitimate spawn of Carl Palidino and Christine O'Donnell would cruise to victory in Utah. Indiana also is tough these days, although not necessarily impossible.

[karynnj]

10. Quite agree

I did find this article that shows that legal fees are eating Ensign's funds - and he can't raise money now. http://www.lvrj.com/news/ensign-fundraising-dwarfed-by-legal-fees-105127789.html

Indiana could work if there is a really good Democratic candidate.

[pstokely]

9. Winning in Utah is impossible, at least without Dean

[karynnj]

11. Dean is good, but he is not a magician.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. I just hope Alzheimer's hit them early enough

so they can be even more fucking insane, addled with dementia and shit-flinging that will eventually lead to mass-explusion of the Senate Rethuglicans and maybe House Rethuglicans...

[Cosmocat]

12. Casey?

Why would anyone want to "cast aside"?

Not every D is going to be Sherrod Brown, but Casey is OK, took down Santorum, and we just fell short in trying to get REALLY good guy in Sestak in ... You rally around Casey, who has won a lot of statewide races, and is solid and you hold the seat ...

The margins are too short in the Senate to be playing not liberal enough with who you got ...

[onenote]

13. I agree.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

14. Perhaps the Tea Party of 2012 could "O'Donnell" a couple on the Rep. incumbents? nt

[onenote]

16. that would help guarantee us Maine, Mass and maybe NV and IN

But in light of the results from KY, I think even an O'Donnell or Angle could win in states like Utah, Texas, or Mississippi,