Was Clinton written off after the '94 defeat?

[PlanetBev]

I can't remember off the top of my head, but I would imagine the conventional wisdom was that he was a one-termer.

Anyone remember?

[bluestateguy]

1. Yes he was

And the hand-wringing lasted well into late 1995, when his numbers finally cleared 50% again.

[emulatorloo]

2. Yes. Reagan also written off after midterm elections n/t

[Milo_Bloom]

3. Remember, Perot was the difference in MANY states.

[StevieM]

10. Opinion polling contradicts that often-stated position

In 1994 polls showed Perot taking equally from both candidates. And you couldn't even say that until Election Day itself--until then Perot had been shown to be taking more votes from Clinton than from Bush. That's why Bush insisted on Perot being in the debates.

In 1996 polling clearly showed that Perot took more votes from Clinton than from Dole.

Steve

[Milo_Bloom]

13. No one really knows what the impact was.

But, the fact is that his participation in the race changed the landscape.

[krawhitham]

90. And Palin will be the 3rd party candidate in 2012

[Fresh_Start]

4. THEY thought they had him knocked out of the fight

especially when they started all the investigations.
However many of us saw through the bullshit (serial womanizers calling other serial womnizers unfit)
As I recall we voted for Clinton because we believed that they wasting OUR TIME and MONEY on their petty investigations instead of doing the jobs they were elected for.

[gkhouston]

29. +1. I recall hearing that sentiment expressed over and over again. All the

time and money that was wasted on Whitewater and all they came up with was Monica. Nobody gave a shit and we were sick to death of hearing about it on the news night after night after night. The Capitol Steps even had a song at the time to the tune of "Somewhere (Over the Rainbow)" called "Let's Get Over the Bimbo".

[PlanetBev]

5. I appreciate this input

People are talking like it's the morning after the election, 2012.

[AndrewP]

7. I'm in the middle of a deep study of President Clinton.....

he was very much written off by many in December 1994. He also had a number of people on the left who were talking of mounting a Primary challenge as well.

So this HAS happened before, and a lot more recently than many think.

Personally, I think there is one big political difference between Bill Clinton and President Obama though. Clinton had been through a number of tough re-election battles in Arkansas, even losing one in 1980 as well as losing a race for congress in the 1970's. He was much more battle tested and aware politically then President Obama.

Plus President Clinton had an economy that was surging upward by 1995.

[denem]

14. Clinton was a better communicator. Obama is an excellent campaigner,

and after the 2008 primaries, a more than handy debater, but he lacks WJC's natural, straightforward, people skills. AND Bill and Hillary seemed to do best with their backs against the wall. For Barack, that's uncharted territory.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

57. Yes! Bill Clinton needs to help Obama effectively communicate

The Dems did good things, but they are terrible at communicating those things in simple, slogan-y ways.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

88. Everyhthing Else Is Commentary

"... President Clinton had an economy that was surging upward by 1995."

[Rageneau]

6. Gingrich said that Clinton was 'irrelevant' after that election.

[niceypoo]

8. Clinton didn't compromise on his 1993 economic plan

It passed with zero republican input and zero republican votes. When it kicked in, his popularity went through the ceiling.

Not a lot to compare here.

[WI_DEM]

9. Actually unemployment was 5.5% in when Dems lost Congress in '94--the vote

in '94 was against Clinton's Health Care Reform. The Clinton Economic Plan basically was not a stimulus but spending cuts and tax cuts.

[frazzled]

11. Al Gore had to break the tie

7 of the 57 Democrats voted against it with the Republicans; the final vote was 51 (with VP Gore)-50.

This cannot be compared to the Health Care Bill. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 was contentious (because it raised tax rates on the wealthiest 1.2%), but it was not complex. And it was in part an outgrowth of the early 2000s recession, like the 2009 Stimulus bill. The health care bill, by contrast, was trying to create an entirely new program from scratch--one that had been fought and battered before and in which there were a thousand cooks with a thousand ideas.

The political climate today is actually way more contentious and crazy than Clinton faced in 2003.

Also, remember the other legislation Clinton passed in that year: Don't Ask, Don't Tell, NAFTA. Youd've been screaming your head off.

[niceypoo]

12. Clinton didn't give in to the right

He did it in spite of them. He used the bully pulpit to garner enough votes. He did it the same way LBJ bullied Medicare through.

Your right, it definitely can't be compared to the way the healthcare bill went through (compromised down to fumes).

[TwilightGardener]

15. Yeah, he was a scrapper. I really do love the HCR bill that Clinton passed.

That was an historic achievement.

[niceypoo]

16. He wasnt willing to compromise everything away for zero votes

...and he didn't include every republican idea. Yeah, what a sissy he was.

[TwilightGardener]

17. LOL at the idea of Bill Clinton standing strong against Republican ideas

and compromise. The inventer of triangulation.

[niceypoo]

18. Clinton won every budget fight

And he didn't budge on his economic plan. Nothing you say changes that.

[AndrewP]

24. LOL at not seeing how Bill Clinton twisted the right in knotts

[TwilightGardener]

26. Actually, I have no big beef with Bill Clinton. Just pointing out that

the myth-making (in order to portray Obama by comparison as the MegaFailure, the UnStrong, the World's Biggest Sissy) is getting out of hand.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. You're wrong.

Clinton's original economic plan called for a smaller stimulus than what we saw from Pres. Obama that he could not get through. Two prominent Democrats opposed it (Nunn and Nelson) and because Republicans voted in unison, it was whittled down to nothing.

Here is an article about that from Mother Jones (http://books.google.com/books?id=HecDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT53&lpg=PT53&dq=Clinton+stimulus+1993+-obama+%22nunn%22&source=bl&ots=aZvFykz4iN&sig=OT57-2HFPrUhGFNiy9GqmcTXYx8&hl=en&ei=pw7TTLaYAY-WsgPn3qXNDg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBIQ6AEwADgK#v=onepage&q=billion&f=false">1993).

Since then, Clinton has radically scaled back the size of his public investment program, only to see his meager twelve billion dollar "stimulus" package defeated.

[great white snark]

20. Can it be?

Rewriting of history to disparage Obama?

Thanks for the perspective Drunken Irishman.

[niceypoo]

22. No, it cant. See post # 21

lol

[niceypoo]

21. Clintons plan was about balancing the budget (deficit reduction), not stimulus

Clinton got rid of supply side. Apples do not equal oranges.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omnibus_Budget_Reconciliation_Act_of_1993

Omnibus budget reconciliation act of 1993

Act designed to help reduce the federal deficit by approximately $496 bil­lion over five years through a restructuring of the tax code. The fol­lowing include some of the major provisions that have an impact, on financial planning:

1. Establishment of a new top tax rate on ordinary income (wages, interest, dividends, etc.) of 36% on taxable income alone: Applicable Filing Status ThresholdMarried individuals filing joint returns $ 140,000Heads of households 127,500Unmarried individuals 115,000Married individuals filing separate returns 70,000Estates and trusts 5,500
2. Establishment of a new 10% surtax on individuals with taxable income in excess of $250,000; except for married individualsfiling separately the surtax applies to taxable income over $125,000.
3. Establishment of a new 39.6% marginal tax rate, which includes the above 10% surtax, to be applied to taxable income in excess ofthe $250,000. Long-term capital gains are not subject to the higher rates, and will not be taxed at a rate higher than 28%. Since thepassage of this Act, the maximum long-term capital gains tax has been reduced to 20%.
4. Establishment of a new two-tiered progressive Alternative Minimum Tax rate schedule for noncorporate taxpayers as follows: married individuals filing a joint return would pay a 26% rate on Alternative Minimum Taxable Income up to $175,000, and a 28% rate on Alternative Minimum Taxable Income in excess of $175,000; married individuals filing separate returns would pay a 28% rate on Alternative Minimum Taxable Income in excess of $87,500.
5. Exemptions under the Alternative Minimum Tax increased as follows: to $45,000 from $40,000 for married individuals filing jointreturns; to $22,500 from $20,000 for married individuals filing separate returns, as well as estates and trusts; to $33,750 from $30,000 for single individuals.
6. Elimination of the dollar limitation cap on self-employment income and wages subject to medicare hospital insurance.
7. Establishment of new maximum estate and gift tax rates as follows: for transfers between $2.5 million and $3 million, a 53% rateis applied; for transfers in excess of $3 million, a 55% rate is applied.
8. Deductible of allowable meals and entertainment to the extent of 50% of costs.
9. No deduction for club dues permitted; however, particular business expenses such as meals and entertainment incurred at a clubare deductible to the extent of 50% of costs.
10. For the publicly held corporation, no deduction permitted for compensation paid over $1 million for any one of its highest fiveexecutives.
11. For qualified retirement plan contributions, a reduced compensation ceiling from $235,840 in 1993 to $150,000 beginning in1994. The $150,000 ceiling is to be indexed according to the inflation index each year beginning in 1996.
12. For Social Security recipients, up to 85% of Social Security benefits taxable for married retirees with income in excess of $44,000and for single retirees income in excess of $34,000.
13. For self-employed individuals, a deduction as a business expense up to 25% of the premiums paid for health insurance coverage forthat individual, spouse, and dependents.
14. Repeal of the luxury excise tax of 10% on boats, aircraft, jewelry, and furs. The luxury excise tax of 10% indexed for inflationremains for automobiles in excess of $30,000.
15. Maximum corporate tax rate increased to 35% on taxable income above $10 million. For the personal service corporation, the flatrate is increased to 35%.

[Drunken Irishman]

71. Stop with the revisionist history bullshit.

Clinton proposed a stimulus bill in Feb. 1993, a month after taking office.

http://tech.mit.edu/V113/N8/stimulus.08w.html

[hollowdweller]

80. Clinton didn't need stimulus

If he didn't create new stuff and cut the deficit Greenspan agreed to keep interest rates low which stimulated the economy.

Now interest rates are low as hell and it's not helping. Middle class is in crisis now. Partly because of NAFTA and dereg passed during Clinton.

But I'm not knocking Clinton. He did the best he could at that time. Times are difft now.

[AndrewP]

25. Didn't you get the memo that President Clinton is a Right wing Republican???

Yeah, me neither. But it plays well here.

[LawnLover]

81. Clinton asked the right to "meet him in the center"

That isn't giving in?

[Mass]

23. This was before 94. In 1994, Clinton was considered dead by the media and the GOP as well as

many Democrats. He had lost the election.

BTW, most Obama bills passed without 0 republican votes, so I dont see what the difference is.

[quiller4]

44. It passed with zero public Republican input because he invited

key Republicans in to help him write it and incorporated some of Doles suggestions from the '92 campaign. That coupled with some backroom negotiating brought key Republicans on board from the jump.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

47. Most of Obama's legislation passed with zero republican votes too.

He had to compromise to get DEMOCRATIC votes. Remember? It was less than 2 years ago.

[bluestateguy]

76. Yes he did

I don't know what your level is of acceptable compromise vs. capitulation, but....

the original plan called for a so-called BTU tax, or a broad based energy tax, but Democrats from energy producing states would not go for it. The BTU tax was then scotched and replaced with a 4.3 cent gas tax increase.

He also had to promise some of the wavering DLC Democrats that he would put together another package of spending cuts after the budget was passed, so as to secure their yes votes on the budget that passed in August 1993.

[brentspeak]

27. As much as Clinton sucked (NAFTA, financial deregulation, etc.), he at least had political instincts

and knew how to fight back against the Republicans.

[CBR]

28. Obama is the first black person elected president. I think he proved his

political acumen.

[niceypoo]

30. Campaigning acumen is not political acumen

[CBR]

32. Well I am glad Clinton's political acumen led to the 1996 Telecommunications Act

NAFTA and a GOP takeover in 1994.

I think dismissing how difficult it is to be a black leader in this country and win a national race is quite interesting.

[niceypoo]

39. Changing the subject?

Of course you are.

[CBR]

42. Addressing my concerns... of course not.

I addressed my thoughts on Clinton's political acumen. What are your's on Obama's troubles through the lens of race and its impact on society and perception?

[niceypoo]

43. You mentioned nothing about Clintons political accumen

You whined about legislation that you dont like. Apples and oranges.

[CBR]

45. Again -- avoidance.

I think, given the outcomes of the stated legislation, that his political acumen was capitulating to the right and it failed the nation in the stated areas. Do you like the 1996 Telecommunications Act? NAFTA? Was the 1994 election a positive step forward for America?

Now, how do you think race is affecting the perception of President Obama from all sides of the political spectrum? Do you think it places barriers that other previous presidents may not have faced in the public discourse? What is your opinion on the skills it took for a black man to be elected as the country's leader?

[niceypoo]

46. You are driven by hatred of the Clintons, IMHO

Thus you keep trying to change the subject

[SemiCharmedQuark]

49. Well if that isn't the pot calling the kettle black.

You brag that Bill Clinton had zero Republican votes knowing that Obama had zero Republican votes too. I hope that's just hate, because the news talked about it enough that anyone over the age of 9 knows it.

[niceypoo]

53. *lol*

Wow, did you miss the point or what? No republican votes is a given. It is the reaction to the GOP's stubbornness that matters.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

55. If it is a given, then why did you mention it?

Why not add these to your list of things Clinton did:

Clinton breathed air!
Clinton ate food!
Clinton had a pet!

[niceypoo]

61. You completely miss the point

...intentionally I suspect

[CBR]

50. Nope... no sale. I like the Clintons. Hubby and I had a split household

during the 2008 primaries and I would have gladly voted for HRC in 2008 general. I do not agree with all the moves made by President Clinton; namely, the 1996 Telecommunications act. It is the field of research I work in and it is disastrous for media ownership. I do think, however, that he made positive steps forward for our nation and was certainly leaps and bounds better than the alternatives.

I also like Obama and feel similarly about him. I do not like some of the moves he has made; namely, his non-aggression towards banning mountaintop removal. At the same time, I feel that he has made positive steps forward for our nation and is certainly leaps and bounds better than the alternative.

I think they have different styles and I like some attributes of both.

Now, why are you avoiding the questions regarding race and its impact on the differences in perception between the two? Race is an important component of the Obama dynamic and it seems many progressives do not want to touch it with a ten foot pole. It is sad commentary on the state of the left's political discourse.

[niceypoo]

59. Race had nothing to do with it

IMHO and Obama himself downplays it as a key dynamic.

[CBR]

60. He has to downplay it... that is part of the racial dynamic itself. nt

[niceypoo]

64. Race was a non issue during the campaign

Obviously intelligence trumps skin color in the minds of most Americans.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

65. ROFLOL!

The fact that you could type that without collapsing in laughter says it all.

[niceypoo]

75. How was race a factor?

Please elaborate on how race had a role in the outcome

[CBR]

67. I am talking about the way he has been treated while President...

I think in 20 years, many scholars of race and society will look on the first two years of the presidency and see familiar trends in the differing standards set for black leaders versus white leaders. I know people in those fields in my department are already beginning to formulate those studies and discuss the dynamic.

Also many of the things that were thrown at him during the campaign had a racial dynamic -- arrogant (see uppity), Jeremiah Wright (see angry black nationalist), muslim (see scary brown person)

[SemiCharmedQuark]

69. Hey, here's a fresh one for you:

http://wonkette.com/429461/sarah-palin-favorites-obama-blood-church-sign-photo#more-429461

[niceypoo]

78. Those were right wing side show 'issues' IMHO

Just because the republican party is racist does not mean that the average American is. Obama's victory proves that we can judge someone by the content of their character. Vitriol is what the GOP does to Democratic presidents. They were just as viscous with Clinton, and were worse during his second term (internet). Obama had the disadvantage that the GOP was already 'seasoned' from their experience trying to destroy the Clinton's.

Thats my theory and Im stickin' to it

[Number23]

85. You damn right they will.

I think in 20 years, many scholars of race and society will look on the first two years of the presidency and see familiar trends in the differing standards set for black leaders versus white leaders.

It won't take 20 years. This type of analysis have been taking place since before his inauguration.

[brentspeak]

31. He knew enough to defeat a tired old GOP candidate who had a deeply controversial running mate

But the only political acumen he's demonstrated while he's been President has been to capitulate to corporate and Wall Street's demands that they get to write any legislation he might get to sign (HCR, FinReg). They write it, he signs it, and then he gets to go in front of the cameras to call it a "win".

[CBR]

33. Clinton won in a 3 way race... nt

[CakeGrrl]

34. In other words, it didn't take ALL that much for him to win.

Diminishing him by lowering the bar. Check.

[brentspeak]

36. In other words, there really wasn't much of an actual "win"

Futher, the horrendous HCR bill -- and the enormous political capital expended getting it passed -- has ultimately transformed what was first thought of as a political "win" into a gigantic, monumental political loss for the Democrats.

[CakeGrrl]

37. So, he basically defaulted into the Presidency and screwed up when he got there

Gotcha. Any fool could've done what he did, eh?

[brentspeak]

38. Obama didn't "default" into the Presidency

but he has absolutely screwed up once he got there. He's not at fault for the colossal Citizens United/corporate billion dollar smear machine launched at him and the Democrats, and that is something to consider (and he should be given kudos for speaking out about the US Chamber of Commerce and outside money in the past month). But that doesn't excuse his weak executive leadership up to this point.

[niceypoo]

41. *lol*

[niceypoo]

40. Naw, no win there

:rofl:

[SemiCharmedQuark]

51. Yep. We should take advice from people that think primarying the first black president is going to

result in a big "W" for the Dems.

[Name removed]

48. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Beacool]

54. I have no clue to whom you are referring.

I've been too busy to come here frequently.

:shrug:

[CBR]

56. We already know that electing the first black president meant nothing

to you and was trivial in your opinion. You saying Mickey Mouse could have done it demonstrates your complete lack of understanding regarding the enormous barriers faced by racial minorities in this country.

[Beacool]

63. No, I'm not trying to underestimate the struggles of ALL minorities in this country.

And that includes gays and women (even though women are technically not a minority). My point is that Obama to me was all smoke and mirrors and had very few actual accomplishments in 2008 to warrant winning the nomination of his party. I'm referring to governing, not academic achievements. I think that he is a very smart man who probably means well, but who should have waited until he actually had some practical experience under his belt before he decided that he was ready to run the largest economy in the world in one of its worst economic times. Everyone should have a little self awareness and humility. Experience does matter in life.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

66. Im sorry, what political position did Hillary Clinton hold?

She was a senator and...?

[CBR]

70. Well I am talking specifically about African-Americans and their

unique struggles in the history of our nation and how those are playing out now and how Barack Obama was able to overcome many barriers in 2008; thus, showing stunningly acute political/campaign acumen. I think people are too quick to dismiss these factors and how they are still impacting our perceptions of the President. It is like we are afraid to discuss this stuff on DU or it is outright dismissed on here.

Women and LGBT face similar struggles and certainly HRC faced and continues to face sexism. If she had won it would also have been a remarkable turning point for our national history.

[Name removed]

72. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Beacool]

77. Do you see why people rather not talk about race?

No one wants to have an honest conversation. It's easier to hurl the dreaded epithet.

:-(

[Number23]

86. Yeah. We're supposed to ignore the bill, feathers and webbed feet

And call you a unicorn, right?

[CakeGrrl]

73. Ah, riding the Anti-Obama bandwagons to level your insults

And parroting the old condescension "it didn't take any effort to win".

Of course, it would've been an accomplishment if your golden girl had done it.

But, she didn't.

True then, true today, true tomorrow. Insulting the POTUS won't ever change it.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

93. By co-opting their ideas?

:rofl:

[Deep13]

35. Yes, and rightly so.

The only things he accomplished after that were diplomatic and legislation that collaborated with the Rs.

[Beacool]

58. You can't compare 1994 with 2010.

As much as so many in the media, the left and the right love to do so. Any opportunity to pile on Bill is always a good excuse to start the thrashing anew.

It's very simple, the economy was good in 1996 and Bill won reelection quite easily. If the economy improves and unemployment goes down between now and 2012, then Obama will in all probability be reelected. If the economy still is in a slump, say hello to a Republican presidency.

Now as always, "It's the economy, stupid."

:shrug:

[Uzybone]

62. Damn, you mention the Clintons and PUMAism breaks out

bottom line, neither Clinton nor Obama should have been/ should be written off due huge midterm losses.

[treestar]

68. The internet was not around, but I do not recall him being constantly

trashed by alleged Democrats.

[Ter]

91. For the last time, it was around

Mosaic Web Browser came out April 22, 1993. Why everyone says there was no internet in 1994 boggles my mind.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosaic_(web_browser)

[liberalpragmatist]

74. Frankly, the reaction to 1994 was FAR WORSE

Yes, most people are disappointed or upset about the results Tuesday, but so far I've seen nothing like what it was in 1994.

In 1994, the CW was so strong that Clinton was dead meat that mainstream outlets ran numerous stories about how Clinton might not run for reelection. Every wing of the party - unfairly in many cases - piled onto Clinton. Not just the left, but the center, and the right.

Part of the problem was that nobody had foreseen Democrats losing Congress, and Democrats didn't think they had favorable demographic trends in their favor. Numerous pollsters and strategists openly thought Clinton was the "last hurrah" of the Democrats, and that they were heading into terminal decline.

The overall reaction was just much, much worse.

[StevieM]

83. In 1994 the MSM was speculating that there wouldn't be a Democratic party in another 10 years.

We got a little bit of that again in 2003 after the California Recall.

I expect the president to handily win re-election.

Steve

[mix]

79. I don't care for Clinton's centrism, but as a politician

he makes Obama look like a rank amateur.

[Jennicut]

82. Yes, he was. And he hired Dick Morris to help him. If Obama loses in 2012

then I want him to do it without trying extreme co-opting of the other side's ideas.

[Name removed]

84. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemocraticPilgrim]

87. Barack is far from down and out, and thoe who lost seats should'nt blame him, every corporate....

force aligned against him. They took on that force whether we believe or not they did which is no easy task.

[DFW]

89. Indeed he was. Al Gore set me straight on that one in March 1995

That was the first time I met both Clinton and Gore. The first thing I ever said to Al Gore was "I hope you two
guys do me a big favor and get re-elected." His answer was a very confident, "Oh, I think we will."

He knew something I didn't. At that same occasion, I overheard newly minted Speaker Gingrich talking to someone
I didn't recognize, and he was saying (not very loudly, either), "we may have bitten off a little more than we can
chew." If Gingrich was right then (no pun intended), and he was, then Bonehead may be feeling his cockiest right
about now. When reality sets in, he'll be a little less cocky, or else receive the same treatment from the voters
in two years that Pelosi got this time.

[DailyGrind51]

92. Newt's ego prompted the temporary shut-down of government thereby elevating Bill in the public eye.