Reid won despite the predictions.
Mark Blumenthal:
Not All Polls Were Wrong In Nevada WASHINGTON -- In Nevada, polls predicted the wrong winner of this week's Senate election. Or did they? While public media polls in late October consistently gave a slight advantage to Republican Senate challenger Sharron Angle, the internal campaign polls gave Democrat Harry Reid the edge and campaign pollsters on both sides attribute the difference to a combination of greater care in modeling the demographics of the electorate, more persistence in reaching all sampled voters and the added value of registered voter lists.
With 99% of the precincts counted, the Associated Press reports that Reid defeated Angle by five percentage points (50% to 45%), but the public polls told a different story. In Nevada, we logged 15 publicly released surveys fielded in October, and all but two -- including all eight fielded in the last 20 days of the campaign -- gave Angle nominal advantages of between 1 and 4 percentage points. While none of the margins on any one poll was large enough to attain statistical significance, the consistency of the results demonstrates that Angle's advantages did not occur by chance alone. Our final "trend estimate" gave Angle a nearly three-point lead (48.8% to 46.0%) -- enough to classify the race as "lean Republican."
But the internal polls sponsored by the campaigns were telling their clients a different story. The final tracking polls conducted for the Reid campaign showed Reid leading narrowly throughout the fall campaign, according to Reid pollster Mark Mellman. Their final tracking poll, conducted during the final week of October, showed Reid leading by five percentage points. "There was really no point," Melman told me, "where Reid was actually behind in this race."
Gene Ulm, partner at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, confirms that their surveys for the Angle campaign showed a similar pattern. "We were typically tied in the low to mid 40s -- which as a rule are not good for any incumbent," Ulm said, while several days of tracking showed them "down by single digits."
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Boehner and McConnell have a 14 percent and 12 percent approval rating, respectively
First order for Democrats, stop allowing Republicans and their media shills to continue vilifying Democratic leaders.
No one is calling for Boehner and McConnell to step down.
In 2007, both Reid and Pelosi had higher approvals than those idiots, and no one called for them to step down after they got their butts whipped in 2008.