Here's the "strong hand" the Republicans think they are playing:
They'll filibuster any attempts in the lame-duck session to decouple the middle-class tax cuts from the ones for the wealthy.
Why?
Because if they do so, one of two things will happen.
A) Democrats hang tough and the tax cuts for EVERYONE will expire. Republicans will then run in 2012 on a platform that Obama broke his promise and "raised" taxes for everyone, even the middle class.
B) Democrats cave and extend the tax cuts for everyone. Republicans will then run in 2012 on a platform that Obama increased the deficit. This is not as powerful of an argument, but they will know that the Democratic base will be upset, and that's a political win for them too.
So here's what you do, Mr. President.
You call their bluff.
Have Nancy pass an extension of the middle-class tax cuts in the House during the lame-duck legislative session. Have Harry take up that legislation AS IS, with no amendments. Now that Harry has a new 6-year term, he can have the stones to keep bringing the bill up... every single day of the lame-duck session. Get the Republicans on the record, over and over again, as blocking middle-class tax relief when they filibuster it. Do this every legislative day until December 31st.
Then... on December 31st, in the early evening, hold a live press briefing. And here's what you say:
As of midnight tonight, the federal income tax rates for every single American will revert to their pre-2001 levels.
As you all know by now, the Democratic party and I tried to extend the tax rates for every American making less than $200,000 but our attempts were blocked by a Republican filibuster in the United States Senate.
They blocked this extension which would go to 98% of the taxpayers in this country, because they wanted to extend them for those in the top 2%.
In effect, they said that if the wealthy can't keep their tax rates, then nobody can.
They held the tax cuts for 98% of you hostage, in order to preserve them for the people who need them the least. Then they shot the hostage.
When the new congress is sworn in next week, they will no doubt try to revisit this issue.
I can not, in good conscience, blow a $700 billion hole in the federal deficit over the next 10 years by extending tax cuts to people like myself, who don't need them and won't spend them.
I have no doubt about the political risks that will come from this. So be it.
But I will not give up on trying to give middle-class America some tax relief.
I will ask congress to draft new legislation to lower the tax rates for those making under $200,000 back to their 2010 levels and make this legislation retroactive to January 1st, 2011.
Many of the freshman legislators that will be sworn in here next week ran on a platform of slashing the deficit and restoring fiscal sanity to the federal budget. I'm going to help them keep their campaign promises.
Thank you, and God Bless America. And Happy New Year.
Then.... every time a Republican tries to claim that Obama and the Democrats "raised taxes", reference the dozens of votes where Republicans filibustered middle-class tax relief.
Actually argue that REPUBLICANS raised taxes. Turn their argument on its head. "We tried to maintain the low tax rates for the middle-class, but the Republicans filibustered it 20 times."
After January 1st, when Americans start to see the increases in their first paychecks, beat on this every day: "We're trying to return tax rates back to 2010 levels for 98% of Americans... The Republican party is stopping us."
Make that message part of EVERY press briefing, every speech, every communication. It's a winning argument.
Harry will still be the Senate leader... he can continue to bring the House legislation to the floor over and over and over again and make the Republicans continue to filibuster. Make it the first vote of every legislative day in the Senate.
The key is to make sure the legislation first passes in the lame-duck session of the House, while we still have control.
Make it painful for Republicans. ("Today in the Senate, for the 58th straight time, the Republicans filibustered a bill that would bring tax relief to 98% of Americans", "America held hostage, day 58")
The Democrats need to pound on "The Republican party is holding the middle-class tax cuts hostage".
"Hostage" is a powerful word. It's a "Frank Luntz" word and it conjures up powerful images. We need to continue to use that word in reference to the Republicans and the middle-class. They're holding you hostage, America... to help their wealthy benefactors.
And the best part is... an increase to the pre-2001 levels doesn't hurt the middle class all that much. The economy will continue to grow, and in fact, the dollar will do much better as our deficit naturally comes down because of the restoration of the Clinton tax levels.
We get the "win" of restoring sanity to the federal budget, and also the "win" of pinning tax increases on the Republican party.
Call their f*cking bluff. It's a political win.