2012 North Carolina: Obama competitive in state against all GOP candidates

[WI_DEM]

First PPP had a poll that showed that President Obama was leading by 5-11 points against all GOP candidates in Virginia and now they show that he is competitive again in NC for 2012 against all GOP candidates. It's really too early to be writing the president's political obit apparently because if he wins VA or NC or both then he wins re-election:

Obama's approval rating in the state is 45%, with 51% of voters disapproving. That makes him a lot more popular than Sarah Palin (36/55 favorability spread), a little more popular than Newt Gingrich (34/43), and about the same as Mitt Romney (33/38). The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

Beyond Huckabee though Obama does about the same or even better than he did against John McCain against the rest of the Republican contenders. He holds Mitt Romney to a 44-44 draw, has the slightest of edges over Newt Gingrich at 46-45, and leads Sarah Palin by a 48-43 spread.

Obama trails by 4-13 points with independents in all four of the match ups but that's really not bad given that most Democrats in competitive races across the state this year lost those folks by about a 2:1 margin. The bigger problem for Obama might be that he's polling in the low to mid 70s with Democrats against all of the Republicans except for Palin, an indication that he still has some work to do with conservative Democrats between now and 2012.

Still in the big picture these are good numbers for Obama. Some were quick to look at the 2010 results in North Carolina and say Obama would have no chance to win here again in 2012 but the reality is that a huge part of the Republican victories was Democrats staying at home and that's not likely to happen again the next time around. If Republicans can't get a better candidate than Palin, Romney, or Gingrich and the Obama wave voters from 2008 get reenergized he has at least a 50/50 chance of starting a Democratic winning streak at the Presidential level in North Carolina.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[JoePhilly]

1. Gotta keep NC blue ... I think we can.

[WI_DEM]

2. These numbers are encouraging especially coming after the midterms

and if the economy continues to gain strength one would suspect they would get better yet. No doubt, though, Hucklebee would be the toughest candidate against Obama in the South.

[JoePhilly]

3. Sadly, the mid-terms brought out the crazies ... too many of the sane stayed home.

I think they will wake up by 2012 ... I'm already hearing about wing nuts in the state senate talking about prayer in schools and similar non-sense.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

6. NC Legislature Under Republican Control For First Time In 100 Years

Keep it blue? Obama and the Democrats better come up with some jobs; unemployment in this state, last I checked, was at about 11%.

http://fansofdan.com/go/2010/11/10/nc-legislature-under-republican-control-for-first-time-in-100-years/

Republicans in Wake County were incredibly well organized, and they'll be even more so in 2012.

[KoKo]

13. Yep and Obama and DNC did shit for Progressive Dem Senatorial Candidate.

If Howard Dean had been DNC CHAIR...NC would be very Blue by now. But, Tim Kaine did shit...lost NC and Wake Country to Repugs. Very sad what went on in this last election in NC.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

18. I don't think it's going to be pretty in 2012, either.

Republicans in Wake County are INCREDIBLY well organized, particularly on abandoning the school diversity policy. Did you read the letters to the editor in today's N&O? They were VICIOUS. And many signed by what are probably comfortable white males in Cary, like Tedesco and Margiotta. There's this perception that all the northerners who have moved down are liberal -- they're not. NC is not blue, it's precariously purple. And, yes, we needed Dean, not that milquetoast Kaine.

Then there's the easily swayed teabagger contingent -- look how close the race between Ilario Pantano and McIntyre was. These people are bat-shit crazy; people like one of my neighbors who proudly proclaims that Obama is the antichrist. She hears this at her fundie church in Raleigh. She and another neighbor went on and on about "voting the bums out," and then I asked them whether they'd be voting for Marshall -- Burr stickers were on their vehicles within a week. Hypocrites. If this trend keeps up, this state can kiss high-speed rail goodbye, which sickens me.

Then there's high unemployment and low-wage jobs:

State settles for luring low-wage jobs
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/09/19/690381/incentive-deals-settle-for-low.html

Like I said, we'll see what two years brings...

[pokercat999]

4. I wonder how Obama does against any challenger in the

primary?

[WI_DEM]

5. Probably in NC very well

Since nearly half of the Democratic primary voters in NC are African-American and they, according to polls, are strongly supportive of the president, that would be a big base of support.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

7. Depends on jobs and the economy.

Unemployment in this state is around 11%...we'll see what two years brings.

[catgirl]

11. Don't forget the pockets of progressives too

He'll get great support around Asheville and Charlotte. In fact, the Charlotte Observer endorsed him
last time (to my surprise!).

[KoKo]

14. Your profile doesn't say where you live...but I live in NC...what you say is

doesn't seem to have a clue with what our Dems "on the ground, politically active" in NC are seeing.

[Radical Activist]

8. Seriously, why do you post so many polls?

[Phx_Dem]

9. No recs for this post speaks volumes about DU these days.

Looks like many DUers are hoping for a GOP President, which begs the question of why they are posting on DU? Free Republic or one of the wingnut sites might be a better fit for some posters.

[catgirl]

10. Perhaps we should visit their sites

and be outraged at every repug....

[CakeGrrl]

12. Yeah, the atmosphere around here has been pretty angry and toxic.

It's still a good place to get the latest developments, but it's becoming a lot like reading the comments on news blogs - better just to read the main story and move on.

[KoKo]

15. Maybe the poster is looking at a Poll about NC that doesn't reflect what NC'linian Dems have seen on

the ground or in their own polling and experiences with the 2010 elections.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. "Nader Underground" Seeks to Teach Us All a "Lesson"

The lesson: Idiot so-called progressives can fall for the same right wing song and dance twice in a decade.

It used to be, the left only made world class political mistakes once in a generation. Now they do it once every couple of years. Are they getting dumber? No. The right wing is getting better at making them feel righteous by destroying themselves. It's actually a remarkable, if utterly embarrassing, display.

[angee_is_mad]

17. 2 late 2 recommend

but will keep kicking!