Will a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012 make it more likely a republican will win

[Pryderi]

Poll question: Will a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012 make it more likely a republican will win

the presidency?

[Ozymanithrax]

1. History tells us that when a sitting President faces a serious primary oponent...

that President and that party looses the White House. This is true back to Johnson.

Of course, there is likely to be someone with the ego to say they will defy history, and a lot of people who will vote for that person.

But a stiff primary challenge against Obama is a Republican wet dream.

[Joe Bacon]

22. OK, let's look at the record...

In 1932, France challenged Hoover. France won the popular vote in all the GOP primaries yet lost the nomination to Hoover. Hoover lost.

In 1936, Upton Sinclair challenged FDR and got wiped out. FDR won.

In 1952, Kefauver challenged Truman and defeated him in New Hampshire. Truman withdrew.

In 1964, George Wallace challenged Lyndon Johnson in Wisconsin, Maryland and Indiana, getting around 30-35% of the vote in each state against stand-ins for Johnson. Johnson won.

In 1968, Johnson beat McCarthy in the New Hampshire popular vote, but lost the delegates. Johnson withdrew before losing to Mc Carthy in Wisconsin.

In 1972, Nixon was challenged by Mc Closkey and Ashbrook. Mc Closkey actually got one delegate. Nixon won.

In 1976, Reagan challenged Ford. Ford lost

In 1980, Kennedy challenged Carter. Carter lost

In 1992, Buchanan challenged Bush. Bush lost

Who could challenge Obama in 2012. Some talk about Feingold, but that would make as much sense as France's challenge to Hoover in 1932...

[Radical Activist]

29. Obama won't have a serious challenger from the left.

He might have a gadfly left challenger, but not anyone who can organize a serious campaign. Obama made progress on too many issues and most of the failures were the fault of the Senate. Major donors and organized left wing groups won't be foolish enough to back a losing challenger.

However, it's possible that a candidate to the right could raise the money to run a serious challenge. Evan Bayh? Nelson?

[Joe Bacon]

36. I wouldn't be surprised if Bayh challenges Obama

And our Corporate-Controlled Conservative Press will pass the "Bayh is a centrist" bullshit...

[uponit7771]

2. Those who don't remember the past are doomed to repeat the bad parts of it

[niceypoo]

12. Indeed, 'bipartisanship' with the GOP is a good example

[onenote]

3. a primary challenge will suck money away from what will be needed for the general election

and thus it can only hurt our chances in the general, not help them.

[marlakay]

4. I am more worried Bloomberg will run

and take the middle and some dems and if that happens the repubs could win no matter who is up...

[quiller4]

37. Bloomberg has said that he will NOT consider a run. n/t

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. Why no choice for 'Virtually guarantee...?' n/t

[JTFrog]

6. +1 n/t

[Mass]

7. No difference. It is because a president is weak he gets primaried, not the other way around.\nt

[Dinger]

8. Yup (nt)

[Milo_Bloom]

11. +1

[NorthCarolina]

13. +1

[MissDeeds]

18. Right

If his approval within his own party is not solid, he's vulnerable. It's on Obama to shore up his base - or face a primary challenge.

[Hawkowl]

27. Yes!

If Obama wasn't such a weak kneed appeaser who shits all over his base, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

[ClassWarrior]

30. +1

NGU.

[impik]

9. I will not vote for another candidate and you can pretty much forget from the black vote

To primary an outstanding president because he is not radical enough? Have fun with president Palin.

[golfguru]

23. Palin will not be the nominee

I will bet my paycheck on it.
Karl Rove, the bush family, Mitt Romney, Pawlenty, Newt, are all against her.
It will be Newt or Romney.
GOP always nominates the next in line by seniority.

[StevieM]

24. I actually do believe that the GOP will buck that trend this time around

...and yet, Palin will still lose. I think Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) will get the GOP nomination.

[AlinPA]

33. The teabaggers control the republican party now. nt

[MzShellG]

32. Im with you....

And thats how a lot of people I know feel. Dems never stick together and thats why we always loose. Divide and conquer.

[stevenleser]

35. And that (the black vote) is one of many reasons there will not be a primary challenge

African Americans are one of the top 5 groups in the Democratic base. You are not going to have a challenge to the first ever African American President by anyone who ever wants to win another Democratic primary ever in their lifetime. You would also guarantee that African Americans would stay home on election day should the challenge to Obama be successful.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

38. I would say they are the top group, at least proportionally speaking.

In fact, I can't think of another group where 90% votes with one party (a great thing for us, BTW).

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. There should be an "Other" option. Why? Because in my view it's way too

early to speculate.

Besides can we afford this president at least two years in office before we starting contemplating his demise? Jeez!!!!

[Arkana]

14. Absolutely it will, and one only needs to look at 1980 for proof.

[craigmatic]

15. Anytime a sitting president is challenged from inside the party it makes it easier for the other

side. It creates a riff in the party that can't be healed by election day. Carter couldn't get enough liberal support to beat reagan in 1980. The first bush couldn't beat Clinton because he'd lost the conservatives. If somebody challenges from the left it'll keep Obama from having what liberal support he has. The only thing worse than a primary challenge to a president's re-election chances is a 3rd party candidate.

[ZombieHorde]

16. No difference, those who decide US elections don't even know what a

"primary challenge to President Obama" is. They probably can't even name the three branches of government.

[bemildred]

17. That would depend on who the General Election candidates turn out to be.

A real or fake primary, as such, means nothing.

[Tesha]

19. I voted "No difference" because...

...no matter what the Democrats do between now and
november 2012, their goose is quite thoroughly cooked.

It would take a miracle for the Democrats to hold the
Presidency and opposing Obama in a primary will make
no difference whatsoever; the Republican candidate will
win.

(Two caveats: If Obama chooses not to run, the Democrats
would be slightly closer to the required miracle. Similarly
if they replaced Obama in a contested primary, but he won't
be replaced even if there is a contested primary.)

Tesha

[Phx_Dem]

20. It won't make it more likely, it will make it definite. n/t

[tritsofme]

21. It really depends on the quality of the challenger.

Let's just say Dennis Kucinich is no Ted Kennedy.

If it is a big name it could be harmful, but if it is just some vanity campaign it will not make a difference at all.

[JCMach1]

25. Our loss would be certain...

[Forkboy]

26. Shame the question even needs to be asked.

[GentryDixon]

28. Herding Cats.

This is why we can get nowhere with our agenda. I cannot believe some seriously want to primary our sitting President.

This man has been in office less than 2 years. He ran and was elected on a bi-partisan agenda. Some are ready to throw him under the bus because he hasn't accomplished all they thought he would or should. He has not had a cakewalk with the party of NO. Give him time. Unless you want to see a Republican sitting in his chair in 2012.

Flame on....

[bigwillq]

31. I don't think it will make any difference

because I don't think there will be a "serious" challenger. They'll be some other candidates on the ballot, but none will be serious enough to prevent Obama from winning the nomination and from it affecting Obama's general election chances.

[Hippo_Tron]

34. From a purely financial standpoint, it does

If there's a primary challenge you have to open the warchest to defeat primary opponents. If you can save it all for the GOP you are in better shape.

[old mark]

39. If it should happen, I doubt it would make much difference-there won't be a real liberal

challenge, and anyone more conservative would be a republican. If the media stays bought by the GOP, I believe they will win in '12 anyway-provided they are not too idiotic in Congress...

mark

[Robbins]

40. Reality People

A primary challenge will help Republicans win.And If Obama loses kiss the senate goodbye.

Q did a poll with Palin ahead among Republicans but losing against Obama.Mark my words here.
Republicans go for frontrunners.Palin may very well win the nomination Inless Huchabee and Gingrich
split the teabagger vote allowing Romney to win.Obama will face Palin or Romney In 2012.You think
they will be better than Obama.A primary challenge raises the danger of President Palin or
President romney.