
Race for 2010 Remains Close; Democrats Recover Slight Lead
Republican lead among independents narrows significantly
by Frank Newport and Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrats have regained the slim edge they enjoyed earlier this year over Republicans in the latest update of Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, and now have a slight 48% to 45% lead among registered voters. After having been behind in July and October, Republicans had moved ahead by four points in a Nov. 5-8 poll conducted just after the off-year elections.

"The current poll reflects the narrowest margin in favor of the Republican candidate among independents since July, when the gap was one point."
The major cause of the movement between November and the current poll is the changing preferences of independents. In the latest poll, conducted Dec. 11-13, independent registered voters tilt only slightly toward the Republican candidate, by 44% to 40%. In the November poll, independents' preference for the Republican candidate was 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain the allegiance of their bases, with 93% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and an identical 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/124661/Race-2010-Remains-Close-Democrats-Recover-Slight-Lead.aspx