Something can be a fake reform sell-out and still be worth voting for

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I think the increasingly deformed HCR bill should pass. I would vote for it.

Two reasons:

1) On balance it would help some folks.

2) Non-passage would be a crushing political defeat with ramifications.


I am sympathetic to most of the counter-arguments but am ultimately unpersuaded. One year from today we will have lost almost all practical ability to move legislation... even average mid-term loses guarantee that and we are probably facing something worse than average mid-term loses.

So there is no second act here.

Considerations of what would be better (most things) fade when we recognize that no matter what we do (within the realm of what we might conceivably do) the next congress is going to be even more conservative than the one we've got.

IMO.

[high density]

1. At this point I think it's a political defeat either way

Either it totally dies (unlikely IMO) and it's, "The Democrats failed you again!" or it passes and it's, "Look at this worthless costly bullshit the Democrats are foisting on you!" Then when it does pass, a few years after it takes effect everybody wonders where the nonexistent cost controls are. Democrats and Obama (not Lieberman or the Repukes) then get blamed for passing something that doesn't do a thing to control rising costs.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. I see that, and long term it might be politically worse than zero

There is a potential political time-bomb aspect to a bad bill.

But this feels like a sort-term teeter-point to me... if something passes Obama can keep striving to be Bill Clinton, if nothing passes I think Obama becomes Jimmy Carter.

[high density]

7. Obama seems ready to sign anything that is called "health care reform" at this point

I think we could have a bill that does nothing but demand health insurance companies print their invoices on green paper, and we'd have the WH and half of congress telling us this is the best way to fix the health care crisis.

I suspect once the bill is signed the media is suddenly going to jolt to the left and start attacking Obama and the Democrats for not doing enough to fix the problem or standing up to the likes of Lieberman and Snowe. All of the flaws will start coming out and they'll turn any short-term political victory into an albatross. They'll make Obama look silly for claiming victory. I'm not sure where the voters turn at this point, because the Repukes obviously don't have any other better ideas.

[RaleighNCDUer]

10. It is possible, what you posit, but there might be an upside to it -

if the press does immediately start attacking the bill that passed, that would put pressure on congress to start adding amendments to the bill to fix it. Murdoch media could hardly attack the bill as it stands AND attack the fixes offered to address the very shortcomings it is complaining about.

The bill, as it is, is a monster and parts of it tick off almost everyone. Further amendments added to it would address specific points, none of which would suffer the antipathy individually that all would in aggregate, making the fixes much easier than the passage of the bill itself.

Maybe.

[Inuca]

9. I don't think so

don't assume that most people are so involved with what's going as most of us here, or as knowledgeable of the details or as obsessed with having a PO, etc. Whether we like it or not, most people are not hard-core liberals nor teabaggers, but somewhere in the middle, and pay attention to politics only occasionally, if at all. To many of these people the bill, even devoid of some of the teeth we would have liked to see, would still bring something positive. And once something is passed and brouhaha quites down a bit, some of the issues that have been left to the side may be tackled again, maybe successfully. OTOH if the bill dies, we get NOTHING, the political implications would be much worse in my view (Rs gloating that they managed to kill HRC because they "listened to the American people" vs. continuing to attack it), and even more importantly there will be no significant effort to a comprehensive overhaul of the health care system for God knows how many years. This is MUCH WORSE than a political defeat.

Incidentally, if you want a further argument why nothing is much worse than something, I happened to listen to a few minutes of Laura Ingram on the radio while driving to work. She was chatting happily with Michelle Bachman, Bachman said and Ingram agreed that dems should understand that passing no bill would hurt them LESS than passing "this monstrosity of a bill". So those who say that it's better politically for the dems to kill the bill at this point happen to agree with Bachman and her girl pal.

[Inuca]

2. Agree n/t

[napi21]

4. I posted something similar last night. I want it to pass, even

though a part of it will adversly affect me. We are part of a Advantage Plan, so I know ins. is going to cost more when they get revised. I'd go a step further than you & say that many people will be helped under almost any new bill when pre-existings & kicking people out are eliminated. College students can stay on their parents ins. longer, & many other improements will happen. The #1 reason I want this bill to pass is because I really want our DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT to succeed! I hate the ins co's every bit as much as all of you do and I hate to see THEM benefiting, but I learned a long time ago that you should never let anger prejudice your final decision.

[Armstead]

5. or....a more conservative Congress might actually even be more reasonable

I know that sounds like heresy, and it's not what I'm hoping for, but hear me out. I'm looking for the silver linings in a situation that is already very cloudy.

The Republicans are uniformly against this because it is the only action they can take right now. They also don't want to give the Democrats ANYTHING, so they can have it as a campaign issue.

Let's assume the worst for a moment and say the GOP does get somewhat of a majority. It is possible that some among them would actually be willing to deal in good faith because they know that something is needed. Democrats are not going away and could work with even a handful of reasonable Republicans to get some good things done. And maybe Obama will get a chance to enjoy his wet dream of building a bipartisan concensus.

The Republicans would not likely go for a public option. But some might be receptive to opening up medicare to more people and other concessions, in exchange for some of the things they want like "tort reform" (which is not a bad idea in theory).

And is is unlikely the GOP would impose mandates and the corporate giveaway of forcing people to buy private insurance. Even though they are also in bed with insurers, they are smart enough to realioze that mandates don't fly with their base. (And unlike Democrats, tghey actually do care aboput their base.)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. That would require losing both houses, IMO

My nightmare scenario is also, unfortunately, the mathematical likely scenario: We lose all practical control (because of conservadems) but retain nominal control.

Then two more years of even more intense dysfunction and no incentive for pugs to govern. Democrats are forced to own de facto republican policies. Obama loses in 2012.

So I can see some of what you're saying.

[Armstead]

12. Maybe if more secure Conservadems might also be more reasonable

or not...

[TheKentuckian]

8. Pass that over here

Apparently, you haven't been watching the same Republicans that I have. They aren't going to do a damn thing that doesn't put money in control into a certain few hands and have no interest whatsoever in actual governance. There will be no programs for the public good. Any piece of crap we can cobble out now will be infinitely better than whatever cup of hemlock and federal bankruptcy they will "compromise".

Tort reform is also a boondoggle designed to eradicate individual rights and justice while securing the profits of big insurance. Its just a bullshit talking point not a policy. I don't get this pretending that these so called reasonable Republicans are going to appear out of thin air when they clearly are having to run wacko-Reich to have any chance at winning their party's nomination.

Sooner past bargaining to acceptance the better rather than dreaming up fantasies to keep a dream alive in your mind but certainly not in reality.

[Armstead]

11. I didn't say it was ideal but...

I do think there are some Republicans who would actually be willing to work with Democrats, but who are constrained by the GOP emphasis on unity.

I know the dangers of excessive "tort reform" but some aspects of the concept do make sense. And I'd be willing to trade that off for concessions from them that would actually help improve the system.

Let me put it more simply. It couldn't be much worse than what Democrats have done to ourselves with a majority.