Do you really believe Obama won't get a 2nd Term?

[HeroTwins]

Who's going to beat him?

How's it all going to go down?

Inquiring minds want to know...

[elleng]

1. No

[xchrom]

2. you're hearing this from someone who does not like obama: he will run and win in 12. nt

[Amerigo Vespucci]

13. Agreed...

...I'm not necessarily at the point where I can say I don't like him, but I thought (and still think) that caving on the tax cuts for the Bush Have Mores was absolute and utter bullshit.

Also getting in bed with a guy from GE who sent a truckload of jobs overseas.

I'm still holding out faith that at some point Obama will do something that shows a profound and unquestionable belief in the working class.

But whether he does or not, I'd bet the farm on his getting a second term. The only way that wouldn't happen is if the GOP came up with someone so completely charismatic and free of damage that Obama wouldn't stand a chance against him/her.

I do NOT see that happening.

[jonnyblitz]

30. same. I cannot stand him yet i know he will win again. nt

[Beacool]

42. I agree with you on both counts.

I too can't stand him and yes, he will win reelection. Bush Jr. got reelected too, didn't he?

:shrug:

[Celeborn Skywalker]

55. Better than

whoever the Republicans put up, I'm sure. So it's better he win than the alternative.

[Name removed]

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[Moral_Imagination]

75. Bill Clinton too...

Who was far to the right of Obama.

[Very_Boring_Name]

84. I wouldn't say I don't like him, but I certainly haven't been impressed. I agree with you 100%

[leveymg]

3. Obama and the Senate Blue Dogs have done everything they can to insure another set of major losses.

Odds are, we'll lose the Senate, and possibly the White House in '12. I don't see the Democratic base adequately mobilized in 18 mos if the GOP chooses a half-way sane candidate.

The Center-Right Democratic leadership have committed collective suicide by moving ever-more Rightward. The GOP did two things right: they kept their base mobilized and voted in a disciplined manner. If only the Democrats had done the same things.

[dionysus]

8. .

:spray:

[HeroTwins]

14. so who is this "halfway sane" Repub that will lead them to the promised land?

I know you want Obama to "learn his lesson" by losing.

But what I am asking for is a real series of events for how that happens.

You can say "it's all over" all day long,
but, in the end, you haven't said anything until you describe how that occurs.

[leveymg]

16. It's not what I want - if Obama had "learned his lesson", it should have been the '10 mid-terms.

He apparently didn't, and has moved even further to the Right.

Based on the NH Straw Poll, I can see Romney or Pawlenty getting nominated and winning in '12. Even a wildcard, Mr. Combover "You're Fired", might win if he threw enough money at getting elected.

[Name removed]

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[leveymg]

18. I rethought Huckabee. Please, reread my comment, and come back again.

Huckabee didn't do so hot in NH the other day, but we're a long way from the GOP Convention.

[HeroTwins]

19. In the end Romney has no shot because he's Mormon.

The Religious Right will never support him.

Pawlenty has the charisma of wet rag.
I doubt he is even capable of winning the Primaries, but if he did, Obama would take him apart.

And I'm not even going to dignify Trump with a response.
But, thanks for the laugh. :)

[leveymg]

24. Romney took 11 states in '08 primaries, including some w/strong Relig. Right

presence among the primary voters: Michigan, Nevada (caucus), Wyoming, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana (caucus), Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska.

He came in second in 11 more: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, West Virginia, Illinois, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, California.

I disagree that he will necessarily be rejected by the fundamentalists the next time around. The Teabaggers seem to be the dominant populist force within the GOP now, not the fundies. They overlap, but aren't the same group.

Pawlenty's not all that wooden. He may even be trained to talk.

[pscot]

25. Jeb Bush

[HeroTwins]

36. now that's funny!

[zipplewrath]

85. Romney type

If the economy weakens in 2012, he could have real trouble from any one perceived to be "better" than Obama on economic issues. McCain really screwed up when the economy collapsed. But Obama could have been in trouble when the collapse was happening if someone had credibly come out and articulated a position (which McCain could not). It could have really hammered Obama.

The same thing could happen again. It merely depends upon how the markets move, especially the job markets. A disaster in Afghanistan/pakistan wouldn't help either.

It's hard to say, now, who exactly would be a major threat to him in the spring, it has been noted that there aren't alot of republicans running forward to start campaigns. The perception is right now that it is better to wait and announce once his numbers have dropped. That perception is based upon the presumption that there are economic woes to come. Unemployment starts to run out again in 13 months. If that results in a weakening economy, it could spell trouble for him. Afghanistan only exacerbates that because by next year we'll know just how big of a draw down is going on there, if at all. If he is successful in drawing down, and it explodes, he'll be in trouble. If he doesn't succeed, and there is major trouble, he'll be blamed for encouraging it in the first place.

[DrDan]

4. if he doesn't get the unemployment numbers down, he won't

[great white snark]

5. Nope.

He'll easily win a second term.

[ChazII]

6. He will win a 2nd term. n/t

[meow mix]

7. have no idea here. nothing makes sense

this administration has ruined politics for me. i dont even care as much anymore.. whatever

[onehandle]

9. He is 100% focused on getting re-elected and will succeed.

That's 100%.

[SheilaT]

10. I'm not going to guess how it will go down over the

next two years, but Obama will almost certainly be re-elected.

1. The Republicans do not have a strong central figure they can unite behind. I think however their primaries play out, they will tear each other apart, and I don't see the kind of reconciliation such as Hillary Clinton did at the Democratic National Convention in 2008 happening with them.

2. All those tea-baggers, both the ordinary citizen version and the ones recently elected, are going to learn several things: cutting spending isn't as easy as they think. It's not at all like cutting back on your own personal budget. Yeah, everyone wants to cut spending, but not the spending that benefits me. If they shut down the government they will finally understand just how many ordinary people work for the government, how many paychecks come from the public sector. If they actually try to effect cuts to Social Security or Medicare, they will have open revolt on their hands. They may actually get away with raising the retirement age and lowering benefits some thirty or forty years down the road, but that's totally unnecessary.

3. Barack Obama is well liked by a significant percentage of Americans, more than the majority. It will help a lot if he finds his backbone and actually stands up and fights for a lot of the things he promised when running for office.

4. There are too many unknowns out there, too many things could happen between now and November 6, 2012 to make any real specific predictions, especially about who he'll finally be running against. Nonetheless, while I don't see him as unbeatable, I do think that in the end he'll be re-elected.

[rurallib]

11. I would say he should win, but the media offensive against him

will be unlike anything ever seen.
I am not talking about the ads, i am talking about corporate media and its 24 X 7 X 365 witches brew of lies, distortions and ommissions plus the pile on of talk radio.

[Dan]

29. why would the media complain?

he has found a place that a lot of GOP find acceptable.

He will win.. and I hope that a Dem wins,

[OKNancy]

12. No, I don't believe that

He has a lot going for him, despite the whining minority here.

[bowens43]

23. So you don't mind the he completely abandoned the principles

he was elected to promote? This is the reason that our nation is in decline. There are those among us who will forgive any outrage and make excuses for any lie. They expect our politicians to lack conviction and to cave to money, greed and vanity without exception.

You are right, he will probably get a second term, after all, he'll carry a large chunk of the right wing vote this time around and many Democrats just don't give a shit about doing the right thing. They'll blind vote for anyone with a (D) next to his name on the ballot.

[Davis_X_Machina]

15. Easy...

...the Feingold-Dean-Grayson-Warren-Weiner-Kucinich-Mosler-Franken-Sanders machine will sweep all before it!

The problem is finding bumpers big enough to fit the stickers.

[Hello_Kitty]

20. As of right now his reelection prospects look very good.

A lot can change over the course of 2 years as we've all seen.

[bowens43]

21. Any republican other then Caribou will have a good shot at it.

If Obama keeps on the path he has taken, many in his base will not be casting a ballot for president in 2012.

[HeroTwins]

26. quit pretending like you represent the base.

[Recursion]

37. No, a bitter sliver of the Democratic electorate won't vote for him

The problem with echo chambers is you start to believe your own spin...

[Dawgs]

64. You probably thought the same thing in 2000.

Difference now compared to then is that we had peace and prosperity.

Unless you think Nader wasn't a factor.

[Recursion]

66. Much less than a lot of my fellow moderates do

I'm not persuaded that Nader "stole" many votes from Gore (and I don't like the word "steal" as if every liberal's vote was somehow "ours"). I think he raised overall turnout so it's not a zero-sum question.

[CakeGrrl]

45. Then any Republican in the WH is partly their lazy fault. n/t

[Codeine]

52. His base is not the whining contingent at DU.

Democrats roundly support President Obama in every poll taken.

[DainBramaged]

72. I guess you consider opinion whining........

Yup, certainly not the enlightened contingent.....certainly not sheep.......

[doc03]

22. It depends on the economy and there

seems to be no consensus of opinion on that either. You listen to the people that should know and for everyone that says the economy will improve you have another that says we are doomed.

[DJ13]

27. It doesnt matter

The real question should be, does he deserve one?

The jury is still out on that, but to me it isnt looking good at this time.

[BlueIris]

28. Yep.

Again, because I feel he has simply lost too much support in too many areas in too little time for an election victory in 2012 to be believable. Mainstream media won't spin an election victory it can't sell, so he's done. I further believe Obama already knows this. Also, I sincerely doubt he ever wanted this job to begin with, clearly doesn't want to be doing it now, and will be relieved when he gets to acknowledge he won't be doing it come 2013.

As for who will challenge him--my guess is whoever the Party elite/corporate elite/intelligence community thinks it can work best with. I doubt it will be much of a challenge, either, as those influences won't have to work too hard to move him into the WH.

[HeroTwins]

35. boy, are you going to be surprised!

[CakeGrrl]

44. "I sincerely doubt he ever wanted this job to begin with"

Sure, no big deal receiving an unprecedented number of death threats becoming the first black president with a wife and two young girls. He'd risk that over something he didn't much care about. Yeah. Right.

:eyes:

Interesting how far some will go to justify their desire that he be defeated in 2012. Projecting a lack of interest in the job on the President to help you reason that he's given up? Maybe in your bubble, but out in the real world, things look different.

[Moral_Imagination]

76. Interesting...

So why did the "Party elite/corporate elite/intelligence community" pick Obama in 2008?

[David__77]

31. I think the powers that be will make that happen.

It would be destabilizing to the system for Obama not to get reelected. His defeat would create a type of social polarization that would be very unfavorable to the ruling class. I take some small comfort from that fact.

[DJ13]

32. I take some small comfort from that fact.

I dont take any comfort from that.

If you're right (and I think you are) that means Obama will be even more beholden to the ruling class in his last term.

[David__77]

34. That's why it's small comfort.

It's slightly better than outright fascism, and will likely consolidate certain "democratic norms." Maybe I should have said "very small comfort." Of course Obama does and will implement the ruling class agenda, but we should have known that.

[dionysus]

40. ROFL.. so when he winds handily, it'll be because it was "stolen" from the repukes?

:rofl:
:spray:

[David__77]

43. No. Didn't say that at all.

...

[customerserviceguy]

33. I figured if the Rethugs nominated either Palin or Romney

then President Obama would have an easier time of it, as both of them have parts of the Repuke base that cannot stand them.

If someone else emerges from the shadows, a fresh face perhaps, then I'm not sure. Palin, Romney, Hucksterbee, and Gingrich all have baggage from past elections to carry, I don't think that's the case with a Mike Pence or a Mitch Daniels. If one of the two of them finishes second or strong third in Iowa, then they could pick up steam heading into Southern primaries. There wouldn't be a lot of time for the public to vet them before the general election.

[brentspeak]

38. He's doing what he needs to do to get the approval of the ruling elite

At the expense of 90% of the rest of us.

Barring some major controversy, he'll be reelected -- even though he thoroughly won't deserve it.

[dionysus]

41. hookay

[harun]

60. +1

[Ikonoklast]

63. How many votes do the 'ruling elite' get to place?

I guess you must feel that voting is totally meaningless.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

39. I reckon there's about a 7/11 chance.

Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and W Bush won reelection.

Johnson, Ford, Carter and Bush failed to do so.

I reckon that's as good an estimator as any.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

46. He will win handily! I'm worried about the Senate! n.t

[Name removed]

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[Moral_Imagination]

74. Thats funny...

Bernie Sanders voted for just about everthing Obama was for didn't he?

[Name removed]

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[EndElectoral]

48. THe issue is not whether he could get a 2nd term, but what policies he might advance

[barbiegeek]

50. With No re-election to worry about--he can go MORE liberal

[barbiegeek]

49. Only if we sit on our butts & forget all the good he has done & want another Cheney in the WH

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

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[barbiegeek]

56. I Don't want a Republican & loose everything we've gained so it about him

[Name removed]

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[avaistheone1]

73. Thank you.

How refreshing.

:kick:

[tammywammy]

53. I think if the economy picks up and unemployment drops he's a shoo in

If it's the same as now, it will depend on who the republicans nominate in conjunction with how the republicans in Congress act the next two years. There are a lot of variables, and I could see someone like a Pawlenty having a shot at winning.

[paulk]

54. in a nation that elected Reagan twice and put GW Bush in

office twice, anything is possible. Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

If the economy continues to suck and unemployment stays high, obama could very well lose in 2012.

[avaistheone1]

58. The way things are going I think Obama is going to defeat himself.

I have no idea what Democratic party he represents any more.

[HeroTwins]

62. unless you can defeat him first, right?

[avaistheone1]

65. You can't be serious.

Obama is doing it all on his own. He needs no help.

[baldguy]

59. Not if he keeps pushing a GOP-lite agenda.

Tax-cuts for the über-wealthy, deregulation, cutting essential govt services, sitting down to strategize with the GOP leadership while stomping on any inkling of progressing thought, etc etc...

If the voters have a choice between a phony & the real thing - they'll take the real thing every time.

[mkultra]

61. his poll support is high while congress is very low

so the midterms show pretty much that people are tired of the kind of crap that the angry left wants. They are tired of acrimony and partisanship and they want some level of civility. Congress drew a line and got nothing done, they got voted out. Obama made compromises and got things done, his numbers are high. Idealogs on both sides like to think of themselves as uncompromising moralists but the truth is that every good thing in America is based on the principles of compromise.

[Name removed]

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[GSLevel9]

67. it depends...

on the economy. If the economy is in the crapper, a Republican TURNIP beats Obama in 2012.

If the economy is on the mends, he breezes to a second term. Simple, huh?

[RoadRage]

68. To Soon To Tell...

Depends on a lot of factors that are big question marks right now..

Most of the voting public has a 90 day attention span.. if that. It also depends on who wins the Republican nomination. If Palin wins it.. I think Obama has a good shot. If Romney wins it.. it's going to be a tighter race.

It'll depend on if the Republicans go with the Vocal Teabaggers.. or the Moderate majority in their party.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

70. He will, despite what some DUers think.

Unlike niche candidates like Kucinich, Grayson, etc., Obama knows what it takes to win on the national stage.

[Hippo_Tron]

71. I think his odds are about 60-40 of being re-elected right now...

As per usual, it will depend on the economy. If it gets worse, his odds go down quite a bit. If it gets significantly better then he will be a shoe-in, barring a major scandal.

[Name removed]

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[Hippo_Tron]

81. No, it's about the economy

Bush got extremely positive treatment by the media throughout his first term and even after all of that he was barely re-elected, largely because the economy was sluggish under his watch.

Regardless of the media coverage, the President will raise about a billion dollars for his re-election campaign, which means that he will have plenty of opportunity to tell voters his side of the story. What he can't control is how many people are going to be out of work and or suffering and thus willing to listen to the nuts on the right who they know probably won't make it any better, but are at least pointing a finger at the guy they think is responsible.

Additionally, your assertion that voters don't have a choice over who gets elected is absurd. While money is a huge factor in elections, candidates get outspent 10 to 1 and still win. It doesn't happen as often as it should and there's no doubt that money improves your odds, but you can't simply buy an election. Voters can and do reject candidates who try to do that.

[Safetykitten]

80. He will lose to a republican to be named later. The economy still will be mired

in a deep hole, massive underemployement and unemployment with the commercial crash about to peak in about nine months and his solution (bailout) will be wildly unpopular.

If unemployment gets under 9% by next September, maybe, just itty-bitty tiny maybe. But in 2012 unemployment will still be just above 9%.

[HeroTwins]

87. when was the last time you were right about anything?

[HughBeaumont]

82. I'm pretty sure he will, his rightward turn notwithstanding . . .

. . . because, sad as it is, the alternative (a Republican that makes Bewsh II look liberal and sane, and that's ALL of them) is far, FAR worse.

The menu is shit and the system is broken. The only hope I have is that people actually figure out that when the time comes, it's the CEOs they need to gibbet, not their puppets.

[Jeneral2885]

83. If he doesnt reform US devleopment policy

he wont get some votes

[robcon]

86. The president will be re-elected by a larger margin than the 2008 election.

He's grown his appeal to independents - the most important part of the electorate.