IN-Mike Pence NOT running for President in 2012

[aaaaaa5a]

CNN just reported that Mike Pence will not be seeking the Presidency in 2012. "Sources" say he will opt to try to become the Governor of Indiana instead.

So far this year, we still have no "official" candidates running against Obama in 2012. By this time in 2007, the Democratic field was filled with candidates (including Obama and Clinton) to take Bush's spot.


Is this yet another sign that the GOP knows Obama will be nearly unbeatable in 2012?


A person's actions are worth more than their words.


2012 could be the first election in my memory where not ONE ACTIVE SENATOR OR HOUSE MEMBER" is actively seeking his party's nomination for President.

This is amazing.

[jenmito]

1. John Thune almost certainly IS running, though. I think he'd be the one to beat if he runs. n/t

[AlinPA]

2. I totally agree. With Rubio on the ticket, they will be tough. Actually, Jeb Bush could be

their candidate, blowing everyone except Palin away.

[jenmito]

12. Yup, I was going to say that especially if Rubio was VP, it could be tougher than anyone else. n/t

[flpoljunkie]

3. Read yesterday Mitt Romney will skip Iowa, concentrate on NH where he's strong.

Seems like a smart move for him.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. That's exactly what Joe Lieberman did in 2004.

And it cost him.

It cost him because the focus for much of November-January was on the Iowa Caucus and the candidates running there. That is the most important stretch of the primary season because it's the last true moment before results dictate the inevitable outcome. Similarly, Giuliani put more of his eggs in the NH basket and decided to skip Iowa and because of that, he received the smallest amount of media attention of the major candidates.

Which is expected because everyone will be looking at Iowa and the candidates competing. In 2004, the story wasn't Joe Lieberman camping out in New Hampshire. It was Dean's battle with Grephardt and the surge of support for both Kerry and Edwards. The media focused its attention on the highly competitive race that was, for much of December, a statistical tie between Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and, toward the end, Edwards.

In 2008, on the Republican side, the attention was more toward Romney and Huckabee and how Huckabee was coming on strong late. But Romney received media attention because he was part of the story.

So what happened in both examples is that the coverage the major candidates received who contested Iowa trumped that of both Lieberman and Giuliani so that when the race moved to New Hampshire, they were almost kind of an afterthought.

The winner of Iowa in both instances (Kerry & Huckabee) stole a great deal of media attention. And though Huckabee didn't come close to winning NH, his win allowed McCain to surge in the polls there because Romney was, rightfully or not, ignored because he had lost.

But at least Romney had a lot of publicity heading into Iowa. If he skips it, that attention goes away and he faces a real scenario where the winner of Iowa overtakes him in the polls in New Hampshire.

If he skips Iowa and then loses New Hampshire, he's done.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. I think Thune waits for 2012 NT

[Drunken Irishman]

9. As opposed to 2011? haha

[aaaaaa5a]

11. Ha! My bad.

I was meaning to say 2016. I have 2012 on the brain. I am already set for another campaign. I need help!

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Thune won't run...

I promise you this. His campaign can wait. He's still fairly young and he's not stupid enough to go up against a popular president, lose, and face being branded that loser for the remainder of his career.

Outside of Nixon, what recent president has lost in a general election and gone on to win the presidency?

It's just not likely. He knows this.

There is not much incentive for younger Republicans to run knowing their odds of winning are considerably small.

Now guys like Romney and Gingrich are older. If Romney waited until 2016, he'd be pushing 70 and Gingrich would be 73. This is their swan song and they can't afford to wait it out another four years.

Then you've got Palin, who is just completely absorbed with herself that she probably is convinced not only will she beat Obama, but she'll do so very comfortably.

Delusion that I don't think Thune or other potential up and coming Republicans like Huntsman have.

In the end, they'll sit out like many of the 'rising stars' of the Republican Party sat out in 1996. Remember, there was a push to get George W. Bush to run in 1996 and he wisely waited because he saw the writing on the wall. I think the same will happen for the other young GOPers because the ultimate outcome is not favorable.

[jenmito]

13. Politico: "John Thune plans to run in 2012"

Kind of misleading title to the article as it goes on to say it LOOKS like he's gearing up for a run: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42708.html

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I think he'll look at a run and ultimately decide against it...

Of course, this is me assuming Pres. Obama's approval ratings stay respectable.

But that article is pretty old in political terms and I think, by mid-2011, he'll realize the odds are not in his favor.

Like I said in my original post, if you're a general election loser in one election, you're pretty much done on the national stage.

He stands a far better chance in 2016 and I think he'll realize this.

[jenmito]

19. On the scroll on the bottom of MSNBC's screen, this morning it said that Thune,

Romney, and Pence would announce their intentions to run in '12 very soon. Of course, Pence just said he WON'T run, but Thune and Romney-who knows. I HOPE Thune doesn't run. I ALSO hope RUBIO isn't on any Repub. ticket.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Thune looks like, and has the charisma of, a piece of wood.

[jenmito]

25. He may have no charisma, but he's 6'7" and good-looking in the opinion

of many people-including Jon Stewart, who showed Thune and Gilibrand sitting together at the SOTU, saying that they'd be the perfect couple to procreate if everyone else in the world got wiped out.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. He looks like Frankenstein's monster.

Just my opinion, of course.

I think Romney is better looking.

[Vicar In A Tutu]

29. He sounds like Stephen Hawking's voice generator...

..with all the interesting content removed.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. And remember, intentions to run means little in the end.

Both Tom Vilsack and Evan Bayh explored the potential of running in 2008 and even announced their intentions and ultimately dropped out well before the Iowa Caucus.

[jenmito]

26. Well, I hope he doesn't run. n/t

[aaaaaa5a]

24. I hope Rubio isn't on the ticket either.

The good news is that the Dems can win the Presidency without Florida. For the GOP, it is a must win.

[jenmito]

27. Yup...

and he's been distancing himself from the teabaggers, knowing he needs to do that if he ever wants to run for higher office.

[Robbins]

7. Thune

He may run but he's lose to one of the gang of 4 for the Nomination(Romney,Huchabee,Palin,Gingrich) and Is contender for VP.

Obama Is going to win so he Is practing for 2016 If he doesn't get picked for VP.

[zulchzulu]

23. Thune can run but he would do badly in the primaries

Aside from political junkies, nobody knows who he is and he might have a good front, but he doesn't have a big mouth.

[Uben]

5. MAkes sense, it would be wasted money

He couldn't win his party's nomination, much less a presidential election.

[prolesunited]

10. Perhaps he struck a deal with Mitch Daniels

[madinmaryland]

14. I thought Mitch Daniels was governor of Indiana? He's not running or

will have to face Pence??

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Indiana has term limits for governor

Daniels is finishing his second term in 2012.

[madinmaryland]

17. Didn't realize he had been office that long.

[aaaaaa5a]

18. I bet Pence thinks its easier to run for President

from the Governor's office instead of the House of Representatives. And he's probably right about that. I can't recall the last time a member of the House of Representatives was elected President of the United States. In modern times you really have to be a Governor or Senator to win.



It's further interesting that thus far, the leading GOP list is not made up of one active Governor or Senator. That is very telling. Everyone knows Obama is going to be reelected in 2012.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Remember, though, Pres. Obama was the first senator to win the presidency since Kennedy.

So I'd even exclude them from your comparison.

You're right, though. Being governor does offer an easier path to the presidency (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter).

But your last point is true and why I think it's feeding his decision.

He knows Obama is probably going to win reelection. So spend time in the governor's mansion waiting out the Obama presidency, gain some executive clout and then run for the presidency in 2016.

[aaaaaa5a]

28. Agreed.

I'm not trying to be partisan. It just makes better sense to wait another 4 years.

All of the truly top GOP contenders are young. 4 years won't hurt them.

In 2016, there should be an open field (Biden isn't very likely to run) for the Presidency. The Democrats would have ruled for 8 years. Even if Obama had a successful second term, the natural "ebb and flow" of politics would have to favor the Republican candidate. Plus the far right is so influential in GOP primaries right now, it makes it difficult for a mainstream conservative to win. 4 years from now, the primary landscape could be better suited for a candidate that has a legit chance of winning a general election.





Look at the likely GOP contenders.


Mike Huckabee-Currently job, FOX news analyst

Sarah Palin- Current job, FOX news analyst/ Reality TV Show host

Mitt Romney-Current job… ??????? (I'm sure he is a consultant somewhere)

Newt Gingrich- Current Job, FOX news analyst

Michelle Bachman- House of Representatives

Tim Pawlenty-Current job- Book writer


That list is amazing.

Only Michelle Bachman currently even holds office!

This is truly a list of people no longer in their prime. Not one active Governor anywhere?


There must be some internal polling or some type of historical data the GOP has that shows Obama to be an even bigger favorite than we think he is. How else can anyone possibly explain this weak field. Its no longer too early to announce. Clearly the GOP heavyweights (like Chris Christie) don't think now is the time.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. Yup...they're seeing something.

You're right. The 2012 field on the Republican side is filled with a bunch of retread candidates. I've even seen mainstream articles suggest Obama is in good position (even before his recent surge in approval) because the Republican field is rather weak.

And it is.

Very similar to 1996.

[onehandle]

30. More evidence that they aren't really going to try. nt

[last_texas_dem]

32. Aww, who's going to fill the "Duncan Hunter" slot

in the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination race now?

[GSLevel9]

34. next question... do Repubs WANT to win in 2012?

If the economy still sucks... Obama would make a great pinata until 2016 especially if the Repubs control the House AND Senate.

[alp227]

35. by 2012 would people want to choose someone who's not a "professional politician"?

I'm a Democrat, so I don't give a damn about who's running on the Republican side. However, he's advocated banning abortion, so I'm glad that the anti-choice voice has lost an ally.

Recalling the previous several elected Republican presidents' occupations right before the White House (Gerald Ford was appointed for both VP and P so I'll exclude him):
- In 2000, George W. Bush was Governor of Texas.
- In 1988, George H.W. Bush was Vice President under Reagan and before that was a Representative, diplomat, CIA director, bank executive, and director of the Council of Foreign Relations.
- In 1980, Ronald Reagan had served as California governor from 1967-1975 and was a failed Republican primary candidate in 1976.
- In 1968, Richard Nixon was a lawyer, taking a break from public office having served as VP under Eisenhower and Senator before 1953.
- In 1952, Dwight Eisenhower was in NATO.

Overall it's rare for an active Congress member to ascend to the presidency by election...Obama is the first to do so since JFK in 1960. Other than that, FDR, Carter, and Clinton were all state governors when they ran for president. The last Republican who was elected president while an active Congress member was...Warren G. Harding, in 1920!

[impik]

36. They're all scared to death of running against Obama

[DAMANgoldberg]

37. Don't write them off just yet...

Mitch Daniels Governor and term-limited, Indiana
John Huntsmann Ambassador, former Utah Governor

[aaaaaa5a]

39. Mitch Daniels just doesn't have the "look" to be a President.

I don't like writing that. And I wish looks and presentation weren't such a big factor in winning elections. But they are. If or when Chris Christie decides to run, he will be plagued with the same issue.


As for Huntsman…. "Is this town big enough for Huntsman and Romney?"


Plus Huntsman has been a valuable aid to the President. That is not likely to help him in far right wing GOP primaries.

[GeorgeGist]

38. Why would the republicans want to beat him?