"Starting Over" on health care reform is a fantasy

[jefferson_dem]

Starting Over
— By Kevin Drum

I don't want to blog endlessly about healthcare reform today because, really, there's not all that much to say. I think the Senate bill in its present state is well worth passing, other people don't, and that's that.

But there's one argument that I find perplexing. Here's Howard Dean:

This is essentially the collapse of health care reform in the United States Senate. Honestly the best thing to do right now is kill the Senate bill, go back to the House, start the reconciliation process, where you only need 51 votes and it would be a much simpler bill.

Here's what I want to know: which one of us is living in dreamland? If you don't like the Senate bill, fine. Don't support it. But in what universe will healthcare reform get revived anytime soon if it dies this year? 2010? With the legislative plate already jammed, healthcare reform probably polling in the mid 30s, and midterms coming up? 2011? After Republicans have gained a bunch of seats in both the House and Senate thanks to public disgust with Democratic disarray? 2012? A presidential election year? 2013? 2014?

I usually don't say much about legislative tactics because I figure you need some serious ground level knowledge before you mouth off about what's possible and what's not on Capitol Hill. But the fate of failed major initiatives is so obvious that I can't believe anyone is taking this seriously. When big legislative efforts go down in flames, they almost never spring back onto the calendar anytime soon — and that's especially true when big healthcare bills fail. It didn't happen in 1936, it didn't happen in 1949, it didn't happen in 1974, and it didn't happen in 1995. What makes anyone think it will happen in 2010?

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/12/starting-over

[Richardo]

1. Realism - what a concept.

K&R

[backscatter712]

2. I have to agree with that.

The Senate bill is a total clusterfuck, but the people who say "Dump it and start over!" are deluding themselves if they think a rebooted bill would do anything but get sent straight to the circular file.

Yes, the Senate clusterfuck is turned into a real disaster, but if it's killed, there is no mulligan. There is no do-over. If the bill dies, health care reform dies for at least a decade.

[rpannier]

3. As it was pointed out at electoralvote.com a few weeks ago

ZSupport for the bill was at about 46%
Support for the public option was at 50%+.
In a few polls it was as high as 61%

So your 30% theory seems to be based on the displeasure of there being no public option

[MadHound]

4. Well, when is this healthcare "reform" going into effect? Oh, yeah, 2013

What we can't slip it into the schedule over the next four years? More bullshit and excuses for ramming a sad, pathetic excuse of "reform" down the throats of the American public, thereby exacerbating the health care crisis even more.

[DCBob]

6. I believe some of the core provisions would go into effect almost immediately..

There is still alot good left in the bill.

[MadHound]

8. Some will, most won't, and "good" is in the eyes of the beholder

The good that I see lies in the elimination of rejection for pre-existing conditions and reaching lifetime limits. These could actually be pulled out and dealt with on their own, or as part of a an insurance reform bill.

The rest of this bill is worthless, including pricing caps and all the rest. As we speak, there are dozens of lawyers figuring out a way around this law, with dozens of lobbyists waiting to go up to the Hill and undermine this law as soon as Obama signs it. It happened with campaign finance reform and many other laws, it will happen with this one.

Meanwhile we the people will be saddled with feeding the mandated monopoly of the insurance industry. This means that in the long term, and not that long really, we'll be worse off than if there were no "reform" bill at all.

Kill this bill and start again.

[DCBob]

11. The pre-existing conditions provision is a big one.

I think resistance is futile at this point. The bill is going to pass. There is too much at stake now, especially politically.

[MadHound]

18. "too much at stake now, especially politically." Sorry, but I don't put politics first,

And on issues such as this one, nobody should. By passing this bill we're going to be consigning everybody to spending up to twenty seven percent of their income on insurance premiums, this is what happens when you hand the insurance industry a mandated monopoly. Can you afford that, I certainly can't, nor can most poor and working class Americans. You are probably right, this bill is going to pass, but there should certainly be political repercussions for the Democrats for selling out the American people.

[Connie_Corleone]

5. Unfortunately, Howard Fineman made a great point.

What Howard Dean said on Countdown last night will make a great political ad for the Republicans. I knew it would as soon as I heard Dean say that the bill cost too much.

[DCBob]

7. Ouch.

:(

[cornermouse]

10. Howard Dean told the truth.

Sometimes the truth hurts, but its still the truth and is almost always less painful than lies.

[jefferson_dem]

14. Sad but true.

And the sour rhetoric being parroted nowadays from "liberals" is indistinguishable from what we've heard from the haters on the right.

"We should kill the bill..."
"Democrats are ramming it through..."

Ugh.

[DCBob]

22. Its already happening -- the Herititage Foundation is Howard Dean's new "friend"..

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/12/16/morning-bell-howard-dean-is-right-this-is-not-health-care-reform/

[SIMPLYB1980]

23. LOL!

[cornermouse]

9. Passing this bill and hoping to improve it later won't ever happen.

Pass this and this is all you will ever have because the insurance industry will be too deeply entrenched. That's a fact.

[Laelth]

16. +1. NAFTA still hasn't been "fixed" but we were promised that it would be. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[fasttense]

17. Removing the Mandate is a win-win for everyone.

Ok, some of you have seen me post this before, but come on it's the answer to the problem.

After the removal of the public option, the mandate is what is making this bill worse than nothing. Without the mandate, no one is forced into buying from a bunch of thieves, Americans are no longer locked into health care through insurance corporations and the Democratic party wont be blamed for every death dealing lousy con the health insurance corporations play.

They could put the mandate on a trigger. If Americans start abusing the health insurance corporations, and the corporations can prove 30% of their customers are waiting until the last minute and causing undue loss in profits, then the trigger would kick in. Or just add the mandate later if problems come up.

Remove the mandate, pass the legislation, and President Obama and the Democratic party can do a happy dance and claim they have health care reform.

Then through reconciliation expand Medicare for all.

It's a win-win for everyone. The health insurance corporations still get some new customers from people who use the subsidies. The Democratic party can pretend to have done health care reform. The Republicons can claim they stopped socialized medicine. And Americans aren't getting a worse system and are getting a few tidbits of improvement.

Then using reconciliation pass Medicare for all.

[brooklynite]

24. Killing this bill and hoping to replace it later won't ever happen.

Kill this and what you have today is all you will ever have because the insurance industry will be too deeply entrenched. That's a fact.

[optimator]

12. Kevin Drum is in fantasy land

its easy for scum bags like him to think corporate fascism is worth the trade for scraps of insurance reform when one's interest in politics is that of a spectator sport.
This is REAL FUCKING LIFE and nothing is worth trading for tyranny.

[jefferson_dem]

15. Tyranny?

Wow. That bad, huh?

[VMI Dem]

13. So is winning in Afghanistan, but centrists were all over that.

[pampango]

19. It is depressing. The Senate bill stinks. And "starting over" any time soon ain't gonna happen. n/t

[WeDidIt]

20. The current state is better than this piece of shit.

So start over or not, I don't give a shit.

Kill this fucker.

[Clio the Leo]

21. I look forward to hearing more from Dean on this...

.... because while I understand what he's saying from an idealistic standpoint, I dont understand it from a practical standpoint. He's a smart man, a much smarted politician than I am ('cause I'm not one at all lol), and I'd like to hear him expound upon the notion of pushing the whole timetable back when you're doing so under the 2010 mid-term timetable. If he addressed that issue yesterday, I missed it.

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. Howard Dean is not advocating going back to square one

He is not suggesting that we rethink the entire goals of health care reform and redesign the entire reform effort. He is talking tactics. We arrived at a basic consensus for an overall reform plan with some grumbling from all sides and a couple of individuals have put up a road block on the road we were travelling down toward those agreed upon goals. He is suggesting backing up and taking a different road to get to essentially the same agreed upon place. That does not throw out all of the thousands of hours of discussions that took us to a rough consensus, it redeems them by finding other ways to implement that rough consensus.

[Phx_Dem]

26. Or a joke, whichever one prefers. Either way, it ain't happening.