Am I the only one who truly is not expecting much of a bounce in the approval polls?

[jezebel]

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but I really can't see the bounce over the next few days being over 5 or so points.
I just think that most people either approve or not and are sort of set in their like/dislike. I do think about 5% or so (the true independents) will give him a bounce up, but I don't think one single Republican is going to give Obama any credit. In their warped minds this is all due to Bush and his "War on Terror". It makes no sense at all but it's how they think.
Also, with gas prices so damn high, even Jesus Christ himself would have low approval numbers.

[bluestateguy]

1. Don't pee in my Wheaties

DO. NOT. Pee in my Wheaties.

[jezebel]

3. I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic. I think I have too many Republicans in my

life, and in my state (Georgia) that I don't have high expectations.

[bluestateguy]

15. I am having a parade and I will not have it rained on

Not by nobody.

[jezebel]

18. Give me a day or three of new polling and I hope to be joining you in the parade. nt

[Pirate Smile]

20. I love you.

:)

[elfin]

2. Sadly, same here

Street was actually down today, despite signs of a major boost last night.

Perhaps, because Obama is not the gloating and preening type, people (voters) may treat this as a job, while well done, is to be expected and then stupidly ask "So when are you going to lower gas prices?"

[jezebel]

11. yeah, I just can't expect much. I don't want to be disappointed. nt

[Poiuyt]

4. There may or may not be much of a bounce, but what it does do is take away

one of the republicans main talking points: that Democrats are weak on defense and the so called "war on terror."

[jezebel]

7. that is true, and it helps in the re-election. they certainly can't say he is weak on terror. nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Yup

Any Republican making such a suggestion should be laughed out of the room from here on out. He also exploded the myth that he is inexperienced. His calls for going into Pakistan after Bin Laden (in the event of having actionable intelligence) FOUR YEARS AGO turned out to be eerily prescient despite flying in the face of all of the criticism he received from both Republicans AND Democrats.

[TTUBatfan2008]

21. Eh...

Rick Santorum is already claiming today that Obama has made the country less safe. They will never stop regurgitating the same old bullshit over and over and over. They learned well from Goebbels. Perception is reality. Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes "truth." Hell, I bet they will continue to call Obama a Muslim terrorist even after he just took out the most notorious Muslim terrorist on the planet.

[SadPanda]

5. It depends on what you consider to be "much"

I would be shocked if he doesn't get at least a 10% boost within days. And in American politics 10% is enormous. That means the independents OVERNIGHT turned 70% for Obama. That means electoral dominance.

[jezebel]

8. fingers crossed you're right and I'm completely wrong. nt

[SadPanda]

37. You were wrong...

Just thought I'd kick that.

[Exultant Democracy]

6. Are you kidding? Remember the Bush 1 numbers after the first Iraq war? Americans love a win.

Given you have from 22-30% who will never like him no matter what. But he still have a lot of room to work with in the numbers and I bet he grabs at least half if not 2/3s of the open territory. He should see a bump over 60.

[jezebel]

10. He's been in the mid 40s w/gallup so that would mean a 15 point bounce. I hope you're right. nt

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Exultant Democracy]

44. Looks like I called it. It's interesting that it took as long as it did, thats probably good news.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. If Bush gets a 90% approval rating just for being President while 3000 people die

(mostly due to said President's negligence), then I would be shocked if President Obama doesn't get at least SOME "bounce" in the polls for getting the man that helped plan and finance the death of those 3000 people. If that does not happen, then, well, that's just wrong IMHO and our country has truly lost its way.
:banghead:

[jezebel]

13. the difference to me is that Bush's bounce came from Democrats. We are reasonable people. If Obama

saved a dying infant right in front of many Republicans eyes, they still would not give him credit.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. Yousa Point is well-taken

Of course, I still think that there are going to be some Independents and Republicans whom will, at least, begrudgingly give him SOME credit. None of the Congressional Republican a-holes will, of course. :puke:

[Thrill]

17. Isn't he already at around 50%?

Thats amazing in its own, considering everything thats going on

[razorman]

19. I think there will be a small bounce, but it will be short-lived.

The American public has a short attention span. The economy, gas prices and other things will be front and center again, and this current euphoria will be forgotten. Remember, Bush Sr. was riding high in the polls for quite a while from the first Gulf War. He lost reelection anyway. We can't slack off at all between now and Nov 2012. Take nothing for granted.

[vaberella]

22. Ditto to be honest. n/t

[babylonsister]

23. 5 points is 'hugh'!! And he'll get a bounce; the rethugs will not be

hard-pressed to find any viable candidate to go against this President.

[DrToast]

24. 5 points is a big bounce

You are expecting a big bounce in the polls.

[craigmatic]

25. I generally agree with you. I thought the bounce would be huge at first but the repubs

are already either poo-pooing this or giving bush credit. The economy and gas are going to still be issues going forward.

[Uzybone]

26. Me too...He may hit high 50s at best

for all the reasons you said.

[aaaaaa5a]

27. I agree.

I think everyone (both sides) needs to face that fact that in this country 95% of the people have already made up their minds and know who they are going to vote for regardless of circumstance.

Look at Obama's ratings.

They are remarkably stable.

After the honeymoon period (which all Presidents have) he has only fluctuated roughly 10 points in either direction.

Even when the press hammers him for being down, his gallup number is around 45%. And when he is suppose to be riding high, such as after the year end budget deal, his number is 51%.

Whether gas is 7 bucks a gallon or free, his number is going to fluctuate between about 44 and 51%. His numbers have become so predictable that this past week he dipped to about 42% and I looked at it and said… "well that means it will just be coming up in the next few days!" Since that time it has climbed back up to 46%, again for no real apparent reason. In fact I am not even sure his number has really moved all that much beyond the margin of statistical error in more than a year.


No matter what any Democratic President does, 45-48% of the Country is going to be against him. No matter what. This is why Democrats can't win 45 states in a modern Presidential race the way a Rethug can. There are certain people and places that will never vote for a Democrat no matter what… unless Senator Thurmond from South Carolina rises from the dead and recreates the dixie-crats.

I would look for a small bump in the polls in the coming days. But no Democratic President is going to approach the war time figures of Bush 1 or Bush 2. Thats just not possible given the modern electorate and the press that follows.

[lamp_shade]

28. I hear you. I cringe when I read "he just won the election" or "expect a huge jump in the polls"....

I learned the hard way to NEVER count my chickens before they're hatched... in the 2000 and 2004 elections. I was 100% sure Gore and Kerry had it in the bag. I fell hard and will never forget it.

[slackmaster]

29. I seem to be one among a small minority of DUers who pay no attention to polls other than elections

I really don't understand why people care about popularity polls. The only polls that matter are elections.

[aaaaaa5a]

30. I wish I were that smart! LOL! NT

[slackmaster]

32. Try turning off your TV, or just watching historical documentaries and science shows

Getting away from the constant spew of advertising cloaked in propaganda would do you some good, I think.

[quiller4]

36. Polls matter. Good numbers in a poll help with fundraising. Early

good numbers in regional polling help you attract volunteers to your candidate and help you land important early endorsements. Bad poll numbers can kill a campaign before it ever gets off the ground.

[BlueIris]

31. Not only do I not expect a bounce, I think he's about the crater.

For good.

[FrenchieCat]

40. Delete post.....

not worth it.

[Jennicut]

43. Yup, 50% on Gallup today and much higher poll #'s from ABC/Wash Post and CBS/NYT

clearly shows he is cratering in the polls. Sure.

[Dawgs]

33. You're not the only one.

:hi:

[A-Schwarzenegger]

34. kick for bounce

[quiller4]

35. The bounce in the polls out today is from 10-15 points

but I don't expect it to hold for long.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

38. by Thursday you should see a rise (re gas prices switch to electric now!)

[OhioBlue]

39. guess you were wrong...

looks like he went from -3 to +18.. looks like a pretty good bounce.

[1stlady]

41. I'm glad he got a bounce in the polls!!

Even if he didn't get a bounce what matters is that Obama is the man who brought down Osoma Bin Laden, end of story. Not Bush, not any rethug. With that on your resume or list of accomplishments, it will help significantly regarding re-election.

[Keith Bee]

42. Bounces can be temporary, but

only time will tell.