If Pawlenty wins the GOP nomination, does that take Minnesota off the board?

[Drunken Irishman]

I know Minnesota has a strong Democratic past and hasn't actually voted Republican since 1972 - but there also hasn't been a Republican candidate from Minnesota.

Is he popular enough to win that state for the Republicans over Obama?

Anyone from Minnesota or the area want to chime in with an unbiased take?

[Thrill]

1. This was talked about when

People were mentioning him as VP last time. DUers from the area were saying he's not even popular there

[onenote]

2. I'm not from Minnesota, but I think the state would still be in play

In his two gubernatorial wins, Pawlenty got 44.4 and 46.7 percent of the vote. He was able to win with less than 50 percent because in each race the "independence" party also was running a candidate (Jesse Ventura's 'party'). His vote total in 2006 was substantially less than what Klobuchar got in her Senate race. It wouldn't be a shoo-in for Obama, but it definitely would remain a winnable state.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Thanks...

Yeah, the fact he couldn't muster a majority there would be worrisome for the Pawlenty campaign.

I also found that his approval ratings back in November were not very good:

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/03/tim_pawlenty_job_approval_rati.php

The latest numbers, courtesy of a new SurveyUSA poll of 500 Minnesotans, find Pawlenty's job approval rating at just 42 percent, with 52 percent disapproving.

[DrToast]

3. Takes it off the board for the Republicans

I don't think he was very popular.

[Robbins]

5. Pawlenty

He would do Just like Mcgovern and Gore lose his home state.But Pawlenty won't go that far.Gingrich will win the nomination
before Pawlenty.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. Pawlenty is not popular here.

Both times he ran for governor he won by a hair. The first time there was a third party candidate that took votes away from the Dem; the second time he won by less than 1%, running against a Dem who wasn't especially well-liked and who ran a poor campaign. As governor he slashed taxes to benefit the corporations and the wealthy, and attempted to make up the shortfall with "fees" on state services that used to be free (and that, of course, were a greater burden on the poor). He didn't like spending money on things like freeway bridges, either. The I-35 bridge collapse is guaranteed to haunt his political career, although he tries very hard to blame it on others.

Although he likes to convey an image of a nice guy, a blue-collar fellow with a mullet who's just a regular salt of the earth midwesterner, he's extremely ambitious and as mean as a snake. He'll pander to whomever requires pandering, and lately it's been the teabagger crowd. He seems to have thought he had McCain's VP job in the bag, and ever since he's been trying to out-Palin Palin. But he isn't good at it. He's an asshole, but he's a boring asshole who tries to be clever and tell jokes and he just can't do it. But he's smarter than Palin (not that that takes much), and he's a sneaky weasel with some money connections. So he bears watching. But I don't expect him to get the nomination.

[mac56]

14. I agree

especially about the I-35 issue. Plus his word games where he rebranded his increased taxes as "user fees."

Much like Palin, he pissed away his most recent term as governor to play "Dig Me!" with the national press and the GOP powers that be. And he'll always be haunted by McCain passing him by to pick Palin. One of the phrases in use here is "Sarah Palin's Maid Of Honor."

[davidpdx]

22. I hate to say this because people died in that bridge collapse

But I can see the campaign video against him already with the video of the bridge collapsing and a narrator talking of Pawlenty's tax cuts.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

7. anyone who floats "T Paw" to attract younger voters

has the same chance as a house of cards in a mid-spring Chicago T Storm. With hail. And the requisite flooding. Spiced with the odd tornado.

[Zynx]

8. Good Lord no.

He was never well-liked there and left the state with a massive structural deficit.

[Arkana]

9. No. As I understand it, T-Paw was pretty unpopular there.

It is possible for candidates to lose their home states--look at Gore in Tennessee and Bush in Connecticut.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Oh I know it's possible...

Though I wouldn't really consider Connecticut Bush's home state in the same context (since he never held elected office there).

I suspect, after reading this thread, Pawlenty will lose his home state if he wins the nomination. Just like Romney would.

[Hawaii Hiker]

11. Minneosta will stay blue - besides they have a democratic governor now so

there won't be any voter suppression BS like what's going on in WI, OH, MI..

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. My impression is that though Pawlenty served 8 years, he left the economy in bad shape.

Then, there's Mark Dayton, the Democratic Governor. He's popular enough to help deliver MN to Obama. I don't think it takes MN off the Democratic map. If anything, it could be another Al Gore situation, where he couldn't win his own state.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Most likely, Obama will win the state with 51% of the vote.

[Keith Bee]

15. Is Pawlenty an Italian-American?

The pronunciation of his name sounds like it; I'm wondering if, somewhere along the line, the spelling was changed.

[mascarax]

16. He will be if you want him to be!

Whatever it takes...if you'll vote for him, he'll be Italian-American. ;-)

Right now, he's got a pretty fresh new drawl. Apparently because he's from "South" St. Paul.

I think he's of German-Polish descent. But that can change. Whatever you want (or you, or you, or YOU), he'll be that. Or pander to whatever you want.

(Interesting thread, and no, he wouldn't beat Obama in MN. It may be close, unfortunately, but he wouldn't win it. He left quite the mess.)

[Randy_P]

18. He's too boring

to be Italian. :evilgrin:

[mascarax]

21. You got me there! True...(n/t)

[border_town]

17. I don't think so

Just like a nomination of Romney will not take MA off the Dems column.

[WI_DEM]

19. No, for one thing he left office with a mediocre job approval rating

Obama would have to fight for MN, I think, but he would still have a good shot of winning the state--depending on how the economy is doing.

[I owe]

20. If Pawlenty wins the GOP nomination

I'll shit gold.

[woo me with science]

23. I don't think so.

Minnesota has a strong history of supporting Democrats, and his tenure was not without problems.