North Carolina Looking Good for Obama

[powergirl]

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

North Carolina looking good for Obama

It continues to look like North Carolina will move up the list of swing states in 2012. The state was hotly contested in 2008 but ultimately not very important to the outcome of the Presidential contest- winning it was icing on top of a cake that Barack Obama was going to be eating either way. We've been finding over the course of our polling this year though that Obama is holding up better in North Carolina than he is in more traditional swing states that he won by wider margins in 2008, places like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. It's looking conceivable that he could actually perform better in North Carolina than in those places and that increases the likelihood that the state could be a key part of Obama's path to 270 electoral votes and not just the difference between winning 350 and winning 365.

PPP's first poll in the state since the death of Osama bin Laden finds 50% of North Carolinians approving of Obama to 46% who disapprove. This is the first time we've found Obama hitting the 50% approval mark there since June of 2009. It's a given that Obama has maintained strong support from African Americans so the key to his high water mark is that his 37% approval with white voters matches the 37% of their votes we found him winning on our last poll in 2008.

<snip>

If there's an individual state where the decision of Mike Huckabee not to run next year hurts Republicans the most it might be North Carolina. PPP has now polled general election match ups for the Presidential race in the state 7 months in a row. Huckabee is the only Republican who has ever led Obama in one of those match ups, and he polled the best of the GOP folks in a head to head with the President 6 out of those 7 months. On this most recent poll, conducted the weekend Huckabee announced he wasn't running, he trailed Obama by just a single point at 47-46.



http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/north-carolina-looking-good-for-obama.html:kick:

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. That's my state.

:woohoo:

[struggle4progress]

2. Let's not overjoy ourselves into a stupid complacency. Republicans seized the state house

and senate in 2010, for the first time in many years, so they will be redrawing the congressional district maps

And we haven't have the political clout to force the resignation of Bush-appointed US Attorney George Holding

I think we can win here in 2012, but I don't think it's gonna be a cakewalk: it'll take hard work

[mnhtnbb]

5. Really. The Repubs here are dismantling everything--looking

to reduce early voting times and require voter id's. They know
the harder they make it for Dems to turn out the numbers, the more likely
they thwart Obama--especially when Dems are holding the Convention
in Charlotte!

[vroomvroom]

3. 1.5 Years is a Long Time. Means Nothing.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. This has been a depressing couple of weeks for you, huh? I'm sorry.

:(

[KoKo]

9. Tarheel, too... and you couldn't be farther from other's opinions here in NC...

[CakeGrrl]

7. Thanks for your...concern!

:evilgrin:

[DCBob]

12. At what point will it mean something?

I suspect you will be saying this right up to the election..

"1.5 days is long time.. means nothing!"

[GentryDixon]

6. I wish I could claim NC as my home.

I have a second home in Harnett County, but my home of residence is Utah. My vote is always for naught in this state.

My Reps are Orrin Hatch, Mike Lee, & Rob Bishop. All Republican and all batshit nuts, in my opinion. Orrin Hatch will be gone next election, but he will be replaced by a Tea Party fanatic. They are already laying the groundwork for that.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Obama's team looks smarter every day for picking Charlotte to host the convention...

[KoKo]

10. True....but

It could look like '68. NC is a very activist state..don't think that these folks are "clueless." We are not a "lock step" folk...like our rebel, Repugs over the border in South Carolina.

[KoKo]

11. Having it in a BANKSTER STATE..."BAC" is very clever given how he's bailed out the banks.

though... It's worth a :rofl:

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. So you now speak for the entire Democratic apparatus in the state of NC?

:rofl:

What an inflated, and probably sorely undeserved, sense of self. YOU DO NOT SPEAK FOR ME! I'm hard put to think of anyone with whom I disagree more. And yes I am a rock ribbed Democrat to the core.

:dem:

[Name removed]

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[Tarheel_Dem]

18. As the article states, NC would just be icing on the cake. Not really needed.

Self proclaimed "Activists" make me itch, or maybe it's the "grass" in the "grassroots". And "grassroots" certainly doesn't mean what it did in '08. I suspect they are much more ragtag these days. ;)

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

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[Tarheel_Dem]

20. Best of luck to you & your "activist" friends.

:rofl:

[Viking 1]

15. Of the states Obama flipped in '08

Indiana and NC are the two that worry me the most. This is good news. It is also very early news.

[KoKo]

16. Very early...good point.

[DCBob]

17. He doesnt really need either state to win..

There are numerous plausible scenarios without either.. but it would nice to win them again.