The Electoral Map: Obama with 247 EVs, GOP with 206 EVs. TOSSUPS: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA.

[jefferson_dem]

That right! Things can change, of course, but it's not too early to at least take a glance at the state of the electoral map. Sabato provides his rundown below, which seems pretty accurate.

For the Campaigns, It’s Already About Electoral College Math

A Commentary by Larry J. Sabato
Friday, September 09, 2011

Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses and primaries — these comprise the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College.

The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, at this point in 1983 and 1995, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, respectively, were in trouble; and in 1991 George H.W. Bush still looked safe. Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Obama’s reelection path much easier than it currently looks to be. So could the nomination of a damaged candidate by the Republicans. On the other hand, a few more months like the preceding couple, and Obama’s reelection trajectory will resemble Jimmy Carter’s.

These possibilities aside, both parties are sensibly planning for a close election. For all the talk about what Hispanics will do or how young people will vote, the private chatter is about which party column the vital swing states will favor. It’s always the Electoral College math that matters most.

<SNIP>

So Republicans are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. Seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the 270 Electoral College majority: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). Prior to Obama’s 2008 victories in each state, several of these toss-ups had generally or firmly leaned Republican for most elections since 1980. Virginia, which hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964, was the biggest surprise, and its Obama majority was larger than that of Ohio, which has frequently been friendly to Democrats in modern times. Massive Hispanic participation turned Colorado and Nevada to Obama, and it helped him in Florida. New Hampshire was the only state lost by Al Gore that switched to John Kerry; its special New England character makes it especially volatile.



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/for_the_campaigns_it_s_already_about_electoral_college_math

[bigdarryl]

1. Why are you relying on a rethug polling firm GET THAT SHIT OUTTA HEAR!!!!!

[jefferson_dem]

2. Goodness Darryl...

I know well of (R)asmussen's bullshittery and their political leanings. No worries. Sabato, a political scientist at UVA who I don't always agree with, offers this "commentary" which is not based on Ras polling data. It's based on data, history, trends, candidate strengths and deficiencies, party field organizations, etc.

Are there particular assertions in the commentary that you would like to challenge?

[Cosmocat]

3. I will be honest - Pa

leaning blue does not indicate any kind of R slant of the data ...

[PRETZEL]

7. I agree

we're starting to see the Corbett Effect in full force,

By this time next year, I fully expect this to be back solid blue.

[DCBob]

14. Sabato is a straight shooter.

I have emailed with him a few times. Hes a good guy.

[LonePirate]

4. The Likely R status of AZ, TX and GA is interesting. I wonder if we can flip AZ in 2012.

Without McCain and with an increased Hispanic voter turn-out, I think the state might be fairly close.

I wonder if TX will become a toss-up in 2016 or 2020. Once that happens, it will be lights out for the Rethugs.

[demwing]

5. Id like to see Jim Hightower run for Texas Gov

no polling data, but the guy has what it takes to help Texas turn blue again.

[Safetykitten]

20. Arizona? Are you kidding? It's going full bore republican.

[demwing]

6. I think NC will be in better play than shown here

as will Colorado and Nevada.

And as far as building bridges and roads by executive order?

Look at the list of toss up states, or states leaning red now that went for Obama in 2008. Watch those states get the jobs first.

[Tx4obama]

9. I think NC will be a toss-up state.

The Democratic Convention will be in Charlotte, NC next year.

And I think Texas is more of a republican 'lean' than 'likely' state.
In 2008 Obama won the majority of our largest cities/counties - our metro areas are blue/purple.

Depending on who the GOP candidate is many republicans might stay home in 2012 and we Texas Democrats could win :)

[DCBob]

15. Agreed. Also I think VA leans blue.

The east coast states are trending bluer even though we had a bit of set back in 2010 with a couple of states.

[underpants]

17. I think NC and VA will be crucial

I am not sure that Virginians are ready for the TV ad barrage that is coming their way.

[Hart2008]

8. If doesn't promise to protect Medicare he can kiss off Florida. NT

[Tx4obama]

11. That's ridiculous. The GOP wants to abolish medicare, you think Florida will go for that?

The Republicans have stated publicly they are against medicare and social security.

Why on earth would the folks in Florida vote for a republican?

[wuushew]

10. I can make an even more accurate prediction

The Republican candidate will have a guaranteed 266 by winning Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Iowa will lean blue, more so than Wisconsin which is the only true swing state in the upper midwest.


Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hamshire plus Wisconsin are the combinations to watch. The number of possible Electoral college outcomes is quite small from this set of four or five so we should concentrate our speculations on these combinations.

[quiller4]

19. current polling shows Ohio leaning blue. We can thank the governor's

over reach for shifting public opinion.

[joshcryer]

12. I've said it before but I think Colorado will be safe blue after 2012.

Too many Latino, liberal, and African American votes for it to be on the edge much longer. It's really a melting pot.

[DCBob]

13. I think it comes down to FL and PA. If Obama win both its over.

If he loses either one then its a scramble.

[underpants]

16. Obama wasn't in Richmond by accident yesterday

time to saddle up.

[AlinPA]

18. I disagree on PA. This state just elected two teabaggers - Governor Corbett and Senator Toomey. PA

is a big problem. Teabaggers are heavy in W. PA and Central PA.

[ghostfox]

21. I Have Studied Elections for Years...

...and I have been able to predict outcomes very, very accurately. It's hard to just paint a state a color based on demographics or voter registration. The truth is, this election will be closer than any of us would like, but it can honestly go either way. This map is actually extremely accurate as far as leaners and toss ups. PA won't go red. NC won't go blue. Obama won't win any state he didn't in 2008 when all factors were in his favor, he can only limit his losses and try to stay over 270. NC will be lost. Indiana will be lost.

As for the tossups: Ohio and Florida are leaning republican, making it really 253 vs 247. Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia are the real states to watch, and honestly, Obama has an advantage from the start in all of those. Things could line up to make it possible for the republican to win (strong candidate, bad economy, second recession)...but as things are, Obama has about a 60% chance of re-election.

[Rhiannon12866]

23. Fascinating take on this...

Thank you! Actually makes me feel a little better. I frankly can't imagine that any of the loony candidates the Republicans are fielding stand a chance, but then I was absolutely certain that Bush* was finished back in 2004. x(

Welcome to DU, ghostfox! It's great to have you with us! :hi:

[ghostfox]

24. Thanks and Don't worry...Obama is not Kerry! n/t

[Hawaii Hiker]

22. What will help in FL & OH is that they have 2 very unpopular governors

in Scott and Kasish, whose approval ratings are hovering around the drinking age....The DNC next year should have been in Cleveland....Besides being important in the presidental election, Sherrod Brown, a great senator, is up for re-election to....

[totodeinhere]

25. That is too close for comfort. What I read from that is the GOP

has a realistic chance of winning. If they can pick up two out of every three tossup states they win. I know it's a long time until the election but this scares me.