So Barack Obama's "incredible unpopularity" will cost the Dems Anthony Weiner's seat?

[Cali_Democrat]

The Democratic leadership along with the President should have stood up for Weiner. All he did was send pictures of himself over the net and he was thrown under the bus.

Now the Republican is winning there according to the polls. I never thought this could happen in Brooklyn and Queens of all places. This is shocking.

According to Public Policy Polling, Obama won the district (NY-09) with 55% of the vote, but now Obama only has a 31% approval, 56% disapproval rating and Mitt fricking Romney is beating him there?

Clearly something has gone terribly wrong and Obama current course needs to change.

No?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/11/1015890/-NY-09:-Republican-Bob-Turner-on-verge-of-major-upset

[monmouth]

1. Or perhaps the Democratic candidate is lacking, who knows?...n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

2. It doesn't explain Obama extremely low approval rating and high disapproval rating in this district

I have a lot of family there. I've been there so many times. I never would have imagined that disapproval for Obama would be this high there.

[frazzled]

7. So you want Obama to suck up to right-wing Israeli policy more?

Cause that's what the issue in this particular district is about (in addition to a weak Democratic candidate). So make up your mind. Either Obama gets cozier with Netanyahu and stops asking him to stop building settlements and the Democrat keeps the seat, or he continues to play fair in the Middle East. Your pick.

[TheWraith]

14. As someone put it on a NY political blog, this is a PUMA district.

Nominally Democratic, but in reality very socially conservative and with heavy religious and ethnic overtones.

In 2008, when Obama got 63% statewide, in NY-9 he only received 55%. That 63% was the best performance by a Democrat in NY since the 1964 landslide, when LBJ got 68%. In contrast, the best FDR ever got in New York, despite being a New Yorker, was 58% statewide. But Obama actually got less in NY-9 than Kerry did in 2004.

[dsc]

37. actually marriage equality is playing virtually no role in this race

according to both sides. This is about the fainting couch crowd giving in and removing Wiener who was able to deal with this district and leaving us with a candidate with no such ability. This is what happens when you remove good people over stupid shit.

[Name removed]

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[StarsInHerHair]

51. and he should not have quit.

[karynnj]

60. Gore/LEIBERMAN did even better than Kerry did

I have read that both Cuomo and Bill Clinton are doing robocalls there. I actually think a robocall from Joe Leiberman, who endorsed the Democrat, to the Jewish community would possibly be the best thing to do - assuming Leiberman can vouch for Welprin on Israel. (As it is, Welprin is an orthodox Jew, and his opponent a Catholic.)

[TheWraith]

3. Yep. But "ran a sucky candidate" isn't as much fun of a narrative..

...as blaming it on the POTUS. Even though we won a special election a few months ago here in a much redder part of NY.

I guess no one is ever supposed to have to run on their own merits anymore, any Democrat who loses is the fault of the President.

[Cali_Democrat]

4. Obama has a high disapproval rating and Romney is beating him there according to the polls

A heavily Democratic district.

Something has gone terribly wrong IMO.

[villager]

5. You can't expect the hear/see/speak no crowd to engage in an actual discussion on the topic

Whistling past graveyards takes lots of energy!

[elleng]

9. Friend of mine who lived in Bklyn and has a friend in the district, maybe,

says not so surprising: Forest Hills, not so heavily Democratic. I've never followed stuff there.
:shrug:

[TheWraith]

15. It's NOT a "heavily Democratic district."

The vote totals from the last few elections do not at all reflect that. It's a swing district.

[Cali_Democrat]

16. I was directly quoting the PPP article

The polling agency said it was heavily Democratic. I've also had personal experiences there. Definitely a Democratic district IMO.

[Harmony Blue]

48. I trust you Cali_Democrat

Most people are surprised by these turn of events and we can only speculate.

[joshcryer]

28. Nice.

I don't understand how one poster can be so wrong so much of the time and just continue to be so wrong and not die from embarrassment.

[Cali_Democrat]

41. See reply #34

District hasn't gone Republican since 1920. PPP also says it's heavily Democratic.

[karynnj]

61. It has been heavilly Democratic in the past as we won the majority of the Orthodox Jews

Even in 2004, with Koch and Dov Hikind endorsing Bush, the majority of Orthodox Jews voted for Kerry.

I may get flamed for this, but I suspect that the reason those endorsements are working better this year is that Netanyahu has directly appealed to Americans, through the Congress and media, distorting Obama's speech on Israel. That and concern about his connections to Islam - he had an Islamic step father and he grew up in more multicultural environment than other leaders - and some racism against a Swartza. There have been conflicts between the Brooklyn Orthodox community and the black community. (How else do you explain that Kerry did a few points better in a far tougher year?)

[mkultra]

54. Your self reflection is noted.

[monmouth]

23. The blame is solely Weiners, I blame no one else...n/t

[efhmc]

104. Agreed. why is that so hard to understand?

[KoKo]

71. TPM's Josh Marshall has post up..that the Dem Guy didn't appeal to Jewish Vote...

That's probably the problem in that district.

[vi5]

6. I think it's something different.

I think it's an Obama effect but it's the Obama effect that any Democrat anywhere has to be the most middle of the road, non-risk taking, inoffensive, non-firebrand Democrat imagineable. No Feingold's, no Weiners, no Graysons, no Kucinich's. Simply the most middle of the road, mealy mouthed centrists possible. Obama sets the tone of the party and that is the tone he has set.

[Tarheel_Dem]

57. Apparently, Feingold, Weiner, Grayson & soon to be Kucinich haven't found the right "tone".

As they're all sitting, or soon to be sitting at home, I'm not sure how the president can be blamed for the most liberal folks in the Democratic Party losing their own seats. Where were their most ardent supporters? Were they all on the internet bitching about Pres. Obama while the GOP was taking out their "liberal" heroes? That could explain it. :shrug:

[Amonester]

84. +1

Since it wasn't a Presidential election, all that Hi-Tech generation prolly couldn't get off their iPo/ads.

[Tarheel_Dem]

98. Exactly. (nt)

[BeyondGeography]

8. Kerry did much better In 2004 than Obama in this district

They have a thing for him and it isn't positive.

Moreover, Weiner is a jackass for putting this seat up for grabs with his reckless behavior.

Obama will get shit if we lose this, but that would be unfair.

[Name removed]

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[BeyondGeography]

43. Oops...misread on my part.

Still, both ending up in the mid-50's tells you it's more conservative than most NYC districts to begin with. And the faux-controversy over Obama's 1967 borders statement (of fact) has made things worse for any D.

[ProSense]

10. Did

"According to Public Policy Polling, Obama won the district (NY-09) with 55% of the vote, but now Obama only has a 31% approval"

...you read the PPP survey? Here's the primary reason

<...>

The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race. A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was 'very important' in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn't say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36. Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate. This seems to be rooted in deep unhappiness with Obama on this issue- only 30% of voters overall approve of how he's handling Israel to 54% who disapprove and with Jewish voters his approval on Israel is 22% with 68 of voters disapproving. That has a lot to do with why Turner's in such a strong position.

<...>

Not much anyone can do about that. The President is pushing a more fair ME policy.

The other reason is that people like Ed "I voted for Bush" Koch endorsed the Republican. Also, nothing Obama can do about that.

Now who wants to see the administration push a policy biased toward Israel just to win this district?

[Whisp]

13. +

[Cali_Democrat]

18. So it's because of ME policy and Ed Koch?

Essentially?

[karynnj]

63. That's what the NYC media has reported

[Cali_Democrat]

101. How is Obama ME policy dramatically different than Clinton's or jimmy Carter's?

Is it all that different?

[Name removed]

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[ProSense]

22. Hmmmm?

"He could have stood up for Anthony Weiner. No loyalty. No commitment. No integrity. No wisdom. "

...the guy who said he had no values? Loyalty isn't a one-way street.

Another thing people forget about Weiner's district is the very thing that led Weiner to oppose the administration's policy:

<...>

Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey (N.Y.), the ranking member of the Appropriations State and Foreign Operations subcommittee, joined with Ros-Lehtinen.

"Compromising our support for Israel at the United Nations is not an option," she said in a statement Wednesday night. "The United States must veto the U.N. resolution on settlements to make clear we will not support such a blatant attempt to derail the peace process."

Reps. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) and Steve Rothman (D-N.J.) also released statements urging a veto.

<...>

Weiner is very pro-Israel, and the the administration did bow to their demands by vetoing the resolution, but attaching a qualified statement of support for the content.

[golfguru]

11. Obama would have 75% approval rating right now if he had

stopped the two WARS TO NO WHERE (Iraq & Afghan) soon after he took office. Promising to continue Iraq war is the main reason McCain lost. The people are tired of these wars to no where. Then Obama starts a 3rd fricking war to no where with more borrowed money from China! Just incredible.

Those wars have bled us dry and is one of the reasons the domestic economy is in a funk.

[TheWraith]

17. Uh, no. Besides the fact that you seem to be imagining wars which don't exist...

The fact is that this district would probably welcome MORE American intervention in the Middle East, not less.

[villager]

32. "Imagining wars which don't exist." Ah, I get it -- they're *police actions*

n/t

[Arkana]

29. What third war?

I really hope you're not talking about Libya. Our involvement there is minimal at best and you're being disingenuous suggesting otherwise.

[golfguru]

53. Even a minimum war costs Billions

sadly, money we don't have and have to borrow from
foreign countries, with interest paid ad infinitum
since there are no budget surpluses to pay off principal. I also read somewhere our troops are now
on the ground?

[okieinpain]

67. i thought we were a part of nato and a member of the united nations

both of whom requested assistance from us on libya. so now we should pull out of stuff when it's not to our advantage.

[golfguru]

68. We should be policeman of the world if WE CAN AFFORD IT

Right now with 1500 Billion yearly deficits and 15,000 Billion in national debt, only the foolhardy believe we can play the role of world policeman.

We are spending billions to rebuild Afghanistan while our own infrastructure is crumbling. Libya will be next rebuilding project since most of the country is bombed out by NATO. Wake up people!

[okieinpain]

99. I hear you, but still if you sign up to do something and you're asked

to do it. don't you have an obligation to do your part.

[golfguru]

100. No obligation to dive into bankruptcy

No one should be forced to do that. I am sure we could have found some excuse why we can't participate, we are flat broke, that is the best excuse.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[tblue]

12. I know nothing about either candidate so

I have no insight into what and how Obama's approvals might impact that race. However, I cannot forgive the president for throwing Rep. Weiner under the bus. We need more Anthony Weiner, not less. Another in a long list of punches to my gut.

[TheWraith]

20. Weiner has nobody but himself to blame.

He fucked up, he lied about it, and he deserved to go.

As far as the candidates in the special election, think "dull and duller."

[GoCubsGo]

42. Exactly.

To claim that the President "threw him under the bus", or is in any way responsible for Weiner's demise is absurd. President Obama wasn't the one passing shots of Weiner in his underwear around on Twitter, and then lying about it.

Another factor in this special election is that relatively little money is being spent on it. Apparently, it's going to be redistricted into oblivion, so whoever gets this seat will be out of a job next year.

[dsc]

46. there is no reason he couldn't have stayed

just like the guy in Indiana who hired a teen aged male prostitute while having a perfectly bad gay rights record.

[Doctor_J]

55. Then how do you explain all of the right wing perverts who are still in Congress

Vitter, whose cavorting with hookers is a felony, Boner, who gets to fuck lobbyists in exchange for votes, Dan Burton, who led the impeachment of Clinton while fathering an illegitimate child with his mistress, Gingrinch, who's running for president, and so on?

Obama should have highlighted this while tossing Weiner under the bus - "I don't agree with Congressman Weiner's actions, but Speaker Boner and Senator Vitter still have their jobs, so why should Weiner resign?" But of course he didn't, preferring to trash a liberal Dem.

[cali]

86. Many repub cavorters are gone

but I explain it this way: different politicians, different electorate, etc. Some people survive scandals- ie Barny Frank, others don't.

[rpannier]

21. Maybe the candidate sucks

Kind of like Coaxley in MA

[young but wise]

45. +1

[jwirr]

24. Redistricting will cost Democrats Weiner's seat.

[no_hypocrisy]

26. + 1,000

[Name removed]

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[FrenchieCat]

27. Are you really this ignorant on the issue of politics in that area,

or do you just playing dumb? :shrug:

[JoePhilly]

30. +1000000

[Cali_Democrat]

40. Obama's approval rating has steadily drifted downward the last few months

Not just in that area, but around the entire country.

Clearly something has gone wrong. It's moving in the wrong direction.

[babylonsister]

47. The 'good news' is, you're staying on course!

:thumbsup:

[Cali_Democrat]

49. Obama has definitely stayed the course

and it ain't working out. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. He needs to change course and move left.

Numbers don't lie. :hi:

[JoePhilly]

31. Why did Obama send pics of Weiner's dick to people?????

[Tarheel_Dem]

58. +1000

:spray:

[Name removed]

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[girl_interrupted]

34. This district hasn't gone republican since 1920

Harding was president then. And even then, the guy lasted one term and was voted out.

I have a feeling people are angry because the Dems at the top, which includes Obama, stuck their noses where it didn't belong in asking Weiner to resign.

Like it or not, they elected Weiner and I think it should have been left up to the people who elected him, to ask him to resign or be voted out.

I think the Dems made a big mistake. Either way, it's too late now. We can only hope the repub doesn't win.

[FrenchieCat]

39. Obama did that.......

and now, he will be shown the error in his way.
Hey everybody, I know....Let's blame him for everything,
that way we ain't got to do shit but point one finger while typing! :bounce:

[girl_interrupted]

69. yes, apparently he did

It beats blaming the "Jews" who have consistently voted Democratic in that district. The Dynamic has suddenly changed. And instead of "blaming" and "pointing fingers"..its more important to understand why.

I know a lot of people in that district and they are angry. It's ironic, Democrats make a big deal about voter and election fraud. Then you take a guy who was legitimately elected and you tell him to get out. Didn't sit well with a lot of people. Sorry that's a fact.

We all know Obama's approval ratings have been slipping. It would better for him if it was "payback" for Weiner because if the voters in that district don't like Obama, for his own policies, that spells a lot more trouble for him in the long run.

If you want to get someone re-elected and his approvals are slipping, instead of getting your panties in a twist, and getting angry, you isolate the problem and see what you can do to fix it.

Not sure that can be done in this case. Maybe cooler heads will prevail. We'll soon know.

[EffieBlack]

44. Or maybe Anthony Weiner put Anthony Weiner's seat in jeopardy n/t

[CakeGrrl]

85. +1000. Nobody made him do what he did.

[William769]

52. War is hell.

Bush & President Obama has taught us that.

Recommended.

[Tarheel_Dem]

56. Perhaps Obama could convert to Orthodox Judaism? The Dems in this district...

are very conservative, and Israel seems to be their #1 issue, and according to NPR, their second biggest issue with the Democrat in this race is that he supported NY's gay marriage legislation. So, Obama's not the only one who isn't popular in this district.

Obama's popularity in this district wouldn't be an issue if Weiner had kept his willy to himself.:hi:

[Bluenorthwest]

62. The Democratic candidate is in fact Jewish and I think orthodox

So the implication that the voters will only vote for a Jewish candidate is not evidenced by that reality. Perhaps you could be more specific?
The Jewish Press, the largest Jewish weekly in the nation endorsed the Democratic candidate in no uncertain terms.
http://matzav.com/the-jewish-press-endorses-pro-toeivah-candidate-weprin-for-congress

[karynnj]

59. No - the RW Likud government and a Democratic ally are responsible.

The argument is that Obama has not been supportive enough of Israel. This as the Obama administration faces losing any credibility they worked hard for in the Arab world because they will stand nearly alone vetoing the UN vote on Palestinian statehood - which will pass the general assembly. This even though a two state solution is our policy and has been for many administrations. The group that changed is an Orthodox Jewish community.

This is the issue. How would you like Obama to change course on this?

The other negative is that Welprin voted for same sex marriage and is being hit on that. I assume you would not change that vote.

Maybe Weiner should have acted more responsibly instead of like a poorly behaved 13 year old. Even then, had he immediately taken responsibility and condemned his own behavior, he might have been able to get past it. His seat is likely to be redistricted by 2012 - and his chance for running for mayor is nonexistent.

[Puglover]

64. I don't think you can blame this on Obama.

You can put the blame on two things.

1. Anthony Weiners weiner.
2. The morons who demanded he step down.

[cottonseed]

65. Obama got Weiner in. Weiner got Weiner out. I'd leave him dangling too.

[girl_interrupted]

70. Obama did not get Weiner in, he's had been in office since 1999

Did he help get him out? Sure didn't encourage him to stay in. Perhaps that was a mistake.

[AndrewP]

66. Weiner not wearing pants during photo playtime is probably a more likely reason

[Jennicut]

72. Perhaps Weiner should have not acted like a total ass. But hey, easier to blame Obama.

Right?

[Beacool]

73. Jenni, I haven't seen you around here in ages.

Or is it that I just missed your posts?

:hi:

[Jennicut]

102. I don't come here too often anymore.

Been busy with going back to school and well, this place just gets so contentious some times. But I promise to come back more often. :)

[Beacool]

103. That's OK, life happens.

It's nice to see you here once in a while. Take care!!!

:pals:

[EffieBlack]

74. OBAMA RUINED MY CAR!!!

Somebody scratched my car. President Obama hasn't denied it and hasn't produced any proof that he DIDN'T do it, so as far as I'm concerned, OBAMA DESTROYED MY CAR!!!

[Cali_Democrat]

75. *****CLICK HERE FOR ELECTION RESULTS******

Will this be the first time in 90 years that the district goes to a Republican?

Click here to find out:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[William769]

76. Thats par for the course with the newest polls on President Obama.

[Cali_Democrat]

77. Looks closer than the polls indicated!

[Sheepshank]

78. Is this your genteel way of padding all the options just in case the doom and gloom doesn't happen?

but if it does you can be the glorious prognosticator?

gawd, covering all the bases?

such a hugh fail.

[Cali_Democrat]

80. What did I prognosticate? I don't do the polling

:rofl:

[Cali_Democrat]

79. Weprin ahead in Queens, behind in Brooklyn

[Cali_Democrat]

81. Turner up by 6% with 55% reporting. n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

82. ****AP CALLS THE ELECTION FOR TURNER****

[SadPanda]

83. Anthony Weiner's penis cost Anthony Weiner's seat.....

Plus an increasingly right wing orthodox community.

[flpoljunkie]

87. NYT:Lifelong Dem voted for Turner to 'send message to the president he's not doing a very good job.'

The unexpectedly tight race stirred anxiety among Democrats already worried about elections next year for president, the House and the Senate. The Turner campaign had eagerly courted disenchanted Democrats, and outside polling places around the district on Tuesday, multiple longtime Democrats confessed that despite concern about Mr. Turner’s eagerness to slash federal spending, they chose him hoping that his election would get lawmakers’ attention.

“I am a registered Democrat, I have always been a registered Democrat, I come from a family of Democrats — and I hate to say this, I voted Republican,” said Linda Goldberg, 61, after casting her ballot in Queens. “I need to send a message to the president that he’s not doing a very good job. Our economy is horrible. People are scared.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/nyregion/ny-democrats-try-to-avoid-upset-in-special-election.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

[GoCubsGo]

90. Brilliant!

She just helped vote in one more obstructionist to further keep him from doing his job. Yeah, that'll teach him!

:banghead:

[flpoljunkie]

92. Indeed!

[EffieBlack]

96. That's just stupid

If people are going to cast their votes in such a dim-witted manner, they deserve what they end up with.

Unfortunately, the rest of us ALSO end up with the madness they wrought.

Of course, when that madness ensues, we can always just blame Obama, not petulant, short-sighted voters . . . :sarcasm:

[Vinca]

88. Democrats should have gotten out to vote for the Democratic candidate.

End of story. Weiner's stupidity for doing what he did was reason enough for him to step aside. If you want to blame anyone, blame Ed Koch for backing the Republican and urging Democrats to do the same.

[Inuca]

89. "should have stood up for Weiner"!?!?!?

Give me a BREAK!! :banghead:

[GoCubsGo]

91. No kidding.

What Weiner did was indefensible.

[Fruittree]

93. "Obama current course needs to change"

To what???? And as for Weiner, he created the situation he found himself in by actions he chose to take - Personally, I don't think he should have quit but what an idiot!! He gave away this seat not Obama!

[JoePhilly]

94. Obama burned my toast this morning!!!

[EffieBlack]

95. My dog growled at me this morning

Obama obviously isn't doing enough to generate support among canines.

[Sheepshank]

97. may make the felines happy that the dogs of pissing off the bosses.

Don't know how this will pan out for the canaries however?