UPDATED: The American Jobs Act: Greater than Expected Impact

[ProSense]

UPDATED: The American Jobs Act: Greater than Expected Impact (Macroeconomic Advisers)

Last week President Obama unveiled his much-heralded jobs plan, the American Jobs Act of 2011 (AJA 2011). It was bigger than expected, with a price tag of $447 billion. More than half the total ($245 billion) is in the form of temporary tax relief, with most of the balance in infrastructure spending. We estimate that if enacted promptly and assuming no monetary offset, the plan will:

• Boost GDP growth roughly 11⁄4 percentage points in 2012 by pulling growth forward, mostly from 2013.
  
  
• Raise payroll employment 1.3 million by the end 2012, 0.8 million by the end of 2013, and progressively smaller amounts thereafter.
  
  
• These estimates do not reflect jobs that might be created in response to tax incentives for hiring included in the plan. While an argument can be made for such effects, we believe them to be modest (more below).
  
  
• Our simulation does not include the effects of an initiative, under consideration by the Administration, to direct federal housing agencies to facilitate mortgage refinancing. We will publish a piece on this shortly.
  
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[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[rury]

2. Great news...

But BAD for the typical Obama bashers here on DU.
They'll either ignore this or say it's not good enough unless President Obama singlehandedly creates 10 trillion jobs by March of 2012.

[Phx_Dem]

3. Unfortunately, the House Dems are picking it apart.

According to a story I just read online.

[ProSense]

5. That is

not the case.

[DFab420]

6. Oh really? Care to provide a link to that?

[ehrnst]

8. What story? Can you provide a link? (nt)

[SixthSense]

4. That's not a positive analysis

All the charts show the effectiveness disappearing by next year. Pulling growth forward is not a cost-free action.

What happens then in 2013? Does anyone think that a short-term boost will really have positive medium and long term effects?

[mikekohr]

7. K & R

[woo me with science]

9. ....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=772307&mesg_id=772395