Jobs fight gives Obama major opportunity with independents

[ProSense]

Jobs fight gives Obama major opportunity with independents

By Greg Sargent

The new CNN poll finds that a plurality of Americans supports the American Jobs Act, 43-35. As Steve Benen aptly notes, the poll also shows overwhelming majority support for the individual provisions in Obama’s jobs bill — the payroll tax cut, state aid to prevent layoffs, and investments in infrastructure.

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The CNN poll finds that a plurality of independents generally opposes the American Jobs Act — 39 percent are against it, and 35 percent favor it. More than one fourth of independents has no opinion.

But guess what — dig deeper into the internals and you find solid majority support among independents for the jobs bill’s actual proposals.

* Sixty five percent of independents favor extending the payroll tax cut for workers, versus only 34 percent who oppose it.

* Seventy percent of independents favor providing federal money to state governments so they can hire more teachers and first responders, versus only 28 percent who oppose it.

* Sixty three percent of independents favors increasing federal spending on building and reparing roads, bridges, and schools, versus only 37 percent who oppose this.

* Fifty-three percent of independents favor increasing federal aid to unemployed workers, versus 47 percent who oppose it.

more

[dkf]

1. They might be for it until they understand how the muni bond provision hurts states

This is pretty big as it will hurt future prospects for muni bond sales also as you have no certainty what future politicians will do either.

Obama has just put state, municipal and project funding into doubt.

[Doctor_J]

2. Let's hope he can run with it

He also had opportunities with Ryan's budget, Rubio's SS stance, Public Option, and so on. His "centrist" (IOW Republican) ideology combined with below-average skill at fighting the right have caused him to fumble these opportunities. Here's hoping he can revive my 2008 HOPE level.

[ProSense]

3. When

"His "centrist" (IOW Republican) ideology combined with below-average skill at fighting the right have caused him to fumble these opportunities. "

...did "centrist" become "Republican"?

Not only is the President not a "centrist," he's not a friggin Republican.

You can help him restore your hope level by not distorting at least that fact.

[Doctor_J]

4. So you believe that Obama is a radical leftist?

Turn off your AM radio, you can move past this.

[ProSense]

5. Everyone knows

"So you believe that Obama is a radical leftist?"

...the only two groups in the polical spectrum are the imaginary "centrist Republicans" and "radical leftists"

This is why it's helpful to stick to facts.

[chill_wind]

6. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Poll finds Independents oppose payroll tax cuts

by a small margin.

Tax Centerpiece

The centerpiece of the proposal -- and the plank that Republicans have said they are most willing to consider -- is a cut in payroll taxes, which cover the first $106,800 in earnings and are evenly split between employers and employees.

Respondents are evenly split at 45 percent on this approach, which would cost $240 billion to the U.S. Treasury. Independents oppose it 47 percent versus 43 percent who favor it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/obama-approval-drops-on-skepticism-of-jobs-plan.html

Poll finds majority pessimistic on Obama job plan, economy
By Daniel Strauss - 09/14/11 08:13 AM ET

A slim majority of Americans don’t think President Obama’s recently announced job-creation plan will slash unemployment, a new poll found.

According to a Bloomberg poll released Wednesday, 51 percent of Americans don’t think Obama’s American Jobs Act will lower the country’s unemployment rate. The poll found that 40 percent think Obama’s jobs package has a chance of creating jobs and lowering the unemployment rate.

Additionally, the Bloomberg poll found that 62 percent of Americans do not approve of how Obama has handled the economy, while 33 percent approve.

The Bloomberg poll comes almost a week after Obama announced his new $447 billion job-creation legislation, made up of new infrastructure spending, additional unemployment insurance benefits and an extension of the employee payroll tax cut introduced earlier this year.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/181401-poll-majority-pessimistic-on-obama-jobs-plan

Obama Approval Plummets on Jobs Plan
Julianna Goldman - Sep 14, 2011

A majority of Americans don’t believe President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs plan will help lower the unemployment rate, skepticism he must overcome as he presses Congress for action and positions himself for re- election.


(snip)

The poll hands Obama new lows in each of the categories that measures his performance on the economy: only 36 percent of respondents approve of his efforts to create jobs, 30 percent approve of how he’s tackled the budget deficit and 39 percent approve of his handling of health care.

more, including findings about the Independents:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/obama-approval-drops-on-skepticism-of-jobs-plan.html

TPM (combined polls) Overall Job Approval

09/13/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 54.0% Approve 45.0%
09/12/11 Gallup permalink Disapprove 50.0% Approve 43.0%
09/12/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 54.0% Approve 45.0%
09/11/11 CNN permalink Unfavorable 55.0% Approve 43.0%
09/11/11 Gallup permalink Disapprove 49.0% Approve 42.0%
09/11/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 55.0% Approve 44.0%

The speech/plan hasn't moved those overall numbers much so far.

09/07/11 Gallup permalink Disapprove 50.0% Approve 44.0%
09/07/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 56.0% Approve 43.0%
09/06/11 Gallup permalink Disapprove 50.0% Approve 42.0%
09/06/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 56.0% Approve 42.0%
09/05/11 Zogby permalink Disapprove 61.0% Approve 39.0%
09/05/11 Rasmussen permalink Disapprove 55.0% Approve 43.0%
09/04/11 Gallup permalink Disapprove 50.0% Approve 43.0%

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-approval-obama



Another TPM piece (below) rightly points out that CNN and Bloomberg polls differ, in that the CNN asks about general favoring of the plans, while the Bloomberg one has the question in it whether people think it will succeed.

True, he's still hanging on, over Republicans for 2012, over all, though. There's no question that whether voters may be mixed, meh, generally supportive or supportive of some proposals and opposed to others -- they see Republicans as worse stewards on the economy.

For now. If the economy stays tanked, and particularly if Obama himself signs anything into law that chops into social security and/or medicare, I think he will be answering right along with them.

Within the polls there were bad numbers for the President on the economy more generally, which has been the case for months. Obama's approval on this handling of the economy is 36 percent in the CNN poll and 33 percent in the Bloomberg, which matches Gallup, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo and others in the last week or so.

But CNN also asked about the choice between President Obama and Congressional Republicans, who have sustained a huge hit themselves after the debt ceiling fight. 46 percent still say they prefer the President, to 37 percent who prefer Congressional Republicans. 15 percent say they prefer neither. The Bloomberg poll showed a tighter split, but still chose Obama 43 percent of the time to the GOP's 41.

Brinkmanship Tanks: Obama Still Favored Amid Economic Pessimism
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/brinkmanship-tanks-obama-still-favored-in-very-pessimistic-times.php

[ProSense]

7. Hmmmm?

"by a small margin. "

"Respondents are evenly split at 45 percent on this approach, which would cost $240 billion to the U.S. Treasury. Independents oppose it 47 percent versus 43 percent who favor it."


You're right, it is a small margin.

More from the Bloomberg poll PDF:

President Barack Obama has proposed a package of tax cuts, spending on public works and aid to local
governments that will cost an estimated $447 billion. Do you think that will or will not help lower the
unemployment rate?
40 Will help
51 Will not help
9 Not sure

As part of his plan, the president has proposed a temporary cut in payroll taxes that both employees and
employers pay, at a cost to the U.S. Treasury of $240 billion. Do you favor or oppose this?
45 Favor
45 Oppose
10 Not sure

As part of it, he also has proposed sending $35 billion in federal aid to state and local governments next
year to avoid further layoffs of teachers, police officers and firefighters. Do you favor or oppose this?
71 Favor
27 Oppose
2 Not sure

So they're split on the payroll temporary cut in payroll taxes, but overwhelmingly support the aid to state and local governments.

It'll be interesting to see the results of subsequent poll because this was taken before the details of the package were announced. Also, the President making the case to the American people will help.

Another poll: Obama approval at 47% (+2), most pronounced rally among Dems, +6 over Romney, +8 over Perry.

[chill_wind]

8. Yes, it is a small margin of difference

but at quite a variance with Sargeant's report of CNN's, which cites:

"* Sixty five percent of independents favor extending the payroll tax cut for workers, versus only 34 percent who oppose it."

vs 43% at a different one. That's all I was pointing out, in terms of that difference, but it is a major piece of the bill. The polls are the polls. Sometimes they conflict and vary, sometimes they are fairly uniform. That's why I didn't make a separate OP of the Bloomberg one and the Hill piece with it when I read them, as I don't think any one of them alone from week to week ever tells a full story for long. That's why I usually look at the TPM combined averages and the trends over time as much as anything.

[ProSense]

11. Americans Favor Obama Jobs Plan by 45% to 32%

Gallup: Americans Favor Obama Jobs Plan by 45% to 32%

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Independents Tilt in Favor of Bill

The Gallup survey describes the bill as "similar to the one President Obama has proposed," making it not surprising that Democrats strongly support it, while Republicans oppose it. Still, Democrats' support is more widespread than Republicans' opposition. This -- combined with independents' greater likelihood to favor than to oppose the bill -- results in the overall 45% to 32% tilt in support among all Americans.



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[CrazyBob]

9. Great

Maybe they will go and work to re-elect him. Then again. Not.

By the time the election rolls around, how many of these so-called independents will vote on invidual policies, and how many will vote on their "gut feeling" about a candidate? And how many won't even bother to vote?

[qwlauren35]

10. But what about the tax increase?

Is it possible that people who say that they are against the jobs bill are against it because it includes a tax increase?