Chuck Schumer: NY-9 Is Not A 'Bellwether'

[ProSense]

Chuck Schumer: NY-9 Is Not A 'Bellwether'

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who represented NY-9 for 18 years as a Congressman, told reporters on Wednesday that it would be wrong to take any national implications for 2012 from the GOP’s upset victory.

“The district is not a bellwether district, it’s one of the more conservative districts in New York City,” he said, noting that President Obama won only 55% of the vote in 2008, much less than neighboring districts and the city overall. He added that the demographics there had been trending away from Democrats for some time.

Obama's 2008 numbers for surrounding districts :

NY 6 - 89
NY 7 - 79
NY 8 - 74
NY 9 - 55
NY 10 - 91
NY 11 - 91
NY 12 - 86

A Republican won (51 to 49) NY 13, which is adjacent to NY 9.

Presidential elections, NY 9 results:

2000: Al Gore 67% - George W. Bush 30%

2004: John Kerry 56% - George W. Bush 44%

2008: Barack Obama 55% - John McCain 44%

[young but wise]

1. K&R

Great to know.

[sweetapogee]

2. the problem

the problem is one on perception, nothing else.

[Arctic Dave]

3. 2010 is not a bell weather, this is not a bell weather...

REMAIN CALM!! EVERYTHING IS OK!!

Someone else can add the image.

[ProSense]

6. Actually,

"2010 is not a bell weather"

...2010 was an atrocity. Regardless of how it happened, more Republicans than usual turning out or more Democrats deciding not to vote, it resulted in more pain for the country as a whole.

[Arctic Dave]

12. You mean, the least republican.

Why should one bother if no meaningful difference is detected?

Should one vote for a full Democrat of half a repuglican(fill in the blank)?

[rury]

16. Keep pushing that stupid meme Arctic Dave

Keep up that asinine mantra that regression under Rethug governance is better than(or the same as) incremental progress with a Democratic president
and a "Democratic" majority congress loaded with Blue Dogs in the house and Conservadems in the senate.
Incremental is the only kind of progress possible in a country dominated by corporate money, a conservative, complicit media and misinformed, bigoted fickle voters.
I can't decide whether you're intellectually dishonest or intellectually bankrupt.

Four more years for Number 44!!!!
OBAMA 2012!!!!

[Arctic Dave]

17. I'm afraid I don't know who you are so I will be polite with your rudeness.

"incremental" is not the only progress we are capable of if you have vision and conviction. Without it, you are a footnote no one will ever read. Obama is fast becoming that footnote.

Hope to get to know you better.

[Fruittree]

32. Explain in exact detail how

"vision and conviction" would move these republicans in the congress to do what you want. By the way when are people going to realize it's more than about who is or is not a "footnote" and who does or doesn't win, it's about the future of the country and its citizens...It's about the country we're leaving to our children. Until we can start having a detailed, serious conversation about what it is we need to do, we are going nowhere.


ps - Obama 2012!!

[Arctic Dave]

33. Nice and flowery but I not sure what part you want me to "explain in detail"?

[Fruittree]

35. How could I be clearer?

Explain in detail how "vision and conviction" would make the Republicans in congress do what you want. Not just words -- but if you're going to say what someone (in this case, Pres. Obama) is doing wrong,it should be because you have an idea of what would be better and some justification as to why it would be better. It's like being at a baseball game and saying "he should've caught that!" but not taking into account that the wind kicked up or the sun was in the player's eyes. It's really easy to stand on the sidelines and complain and have all kinds of "great ideas" but being in the reality of making them work is a whole lot harder.

[Arctic Dave]

36. Well, let's go back further then say, today.

Remember when we had a majority in Congress and nothing of importance was done?
We got a wishy washy healthcare insurance give away.
Next, let's talk about gitmo, still there. Funny how it could set up by exectutive fiat but dismatling it is impossible because he doesn't want to.
Third, the WOT, what a joke this has become, he had a clear mandate to call a halt this and instead he has expanded it and has signed off on MORE money for it.
What else, banking scam, where oh where is that AG on this, oh yeah, he's too busy looking forward by busting MJ growers and users.
The list goes on.

Face it, he is mediocre at best. If he continues to give less then visionary goals and then capitulates on the middle of the road ones he does advocate he will be just another footnote of history.

[Fruittree]

37. Yes...Let's go back further than say..the Obama presidency...

Our jobs were allowed to be shipped overseas leading to a total decline in our manufacturing - Like no one knew that was going to cause a problem?? We interfered in country after country making enemies left and right...We've allowed Wall Street and investors free reign for decades and this was supposed to be fixed RIGHT NOW!!...We've allowed our airwaves to be taken over to the point where there is little if any independent news...Tax rates when you count in all the available loopholes are ridiculously low on the wealthy making it so those with lower incomes are trying to support the whole economy...We allowed the privatization of our healthcare making it for profit in a very big way...More recently, we invaded not one but two countries...We tortured "suspects"...We established GITMO...

Oh...wait a minute...Pres. Obama didn't actually do any of this did he?

Instead his "wishy washy" healthcare bill saved lower income people like me thousands of dollars we would have had to pay to insure our newly graduated out of work child.

GITMO - he has tried to close this - Coming back to who writes legislation - It isn't the president. Has he been blocking its closing or has it been the Republicans? And please try to be honest...

War on terror - I'm not entirely sure what you mean by that or where that starts and ends. He has been trying to responsibly end the two wars...A case can be made that this could happen more quickly but again he didn't start them and I assume leaving is a lot harder than as Ron Paul would say picking a date and marching out. We made a mess in these countries and have some responsibility to try to put things in some kind of order as we leave. Other aspects of the WOT have been ended or scaled back - torture, rendition, wiretapping...He's responsible for keeping the country safe...

Not sure what you mean by banking scam...and I have to go make dinner..Barack Obama is the best president I've seen. He's smart, calm and by all appearances a decent person. He has had the misfortune of being president at a time when people seem to have no sense of common purpose or of working together. A time when shallow self interest abides or as the Dalai Lama would say " a time when there is much in the window but nothing in the room." Can we all work together and patiently move forward or are we now just a bunch of bickering children sure to all become that "footnote in history" you talk about.

[Arctic Dave]

38. Yeah, blame everyone else but the person in charge.

There is a difference between "being fixed right now" and not fixing it at all.

Healthcare? Yes, let's be honest. It is what it is, a give away to insurance corporations. It is nothing close to a victory for the average person. Sure you can say the ball got moved five yards but we are on six and soon to be back where we were.

Gitmo. He is still CiC and this would fall under it. Close it. That is all he would have to say. He won't.

Invaded two contries. Really, you want to go there. He is bombing more now then bush.


Like I said before, it is an easy out to say he "doesn't have the votes now" but that was not the case. He had a mandate and squandered it and now he only thinks in half measures that won't make repugs upset.

[Fruittree]

39. In our form of government where the power is

divided equally among three branches - there is no one "person in charge" at least not in the way you seem to want to believe. He cannot do as he pleases - I would hope even you in your "glass half empty" mode would admit that had he been sent a bill calling for a public option or single-payer for that matter, he would have signed it. What we got is more than we had before - it makes it illegal for insurance companies to discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions...it closes the "donut hole"...it forces insurance companies to cover people like my son...it opens up the possibility for individual states to put in single-payer if they see fit (like Vermont)...it forces insurance companies to use a larger proportion of their income for care rather than profits...It basically finally takes some control over the historical power held by insurance companies...But of course that's not good enough.

GITMO - close it and do what with the people in it? Oh, of course, pull out the wand and POOF! that problem vanishes too.

I believe what he's doing is targeting Al Qaeda operatives. I don't like any killing so I won't defend it but I also am not responsible for the safety of an entire country...I personally think all war needs to end - it goes nowhere and hurts only those with the least power in the world.

He never really had the votes to get everything he wanted passed. There are a great many Democrats who could easily be mistaken for Republicans in their voting patterns. The "he had a majority" meme is simply false..

Were you president how do you think you would have been successful in getting everything you want? Think about it..Do you really have a workable plan or do you just like whining?

[Exilednight]

19. Progressivism is not an incremental ideology. It's a forward thinking ideology. And speaking of

conservadems, what about the one in the White House?

[Politicalboi]

4. Even after the Repukes

Have shown they are willing to take us down, these assholes still vote for them. I think they are trying to make light of this, when in reality it scares the shit out of them. Maybe if Obama loses in 2012 most of us should get a commune going and leave this country. I don't want to be here if ANY Repuke wins.

[CakeGrrl]

5. What do you know? An OUTLIER. Ain't perspective grand? -nt

[TomClash]

7. I don't know it it's a "bellwether"

NY 9 has been redistricted twice since Schumer was its Representative. He doesn't even live in NY 9 now.

Dems have a big registration edge in NY 9 - that's not true in NY 13, which is basically all of Staten Island and is essentially a Republican CD. NY 13 is easily more conservative.

How did Weiner keep the seat so long and so easily? He won with 60% in 2010 against the same Republican candidate. The candidate and the economy were the biggest problems with the race. That's the takeaway.

[ProSense]

9. Well.

"How did Weiner keep the seat so long and so easily? He won with 60% in 2010 against the same Republican candidate. The candidate and the economy were the biggest problems with the race. That's the takeaway."

...single-issue voters, and likely why the district has been trending GOP. Ed Koch didn't support the Republican for nothing.

[TomClash]

10. No way

1. Ed Koch has been supporting Republicans for decades. There's nothing new about that.

2. How do you trend GOP when you have a Dem Assemblyman, Dem State Senator and a Dem Congressman, who won in a GOP year with 60% of the vote against the same candidate? It's more conservative than other districts but there's no way a Dem should lose it. Weprin sucked as a candidate and no one else wanted to run.

3. Unless you have exit polls telling you otherwise, I don't think the mosque controversy caused many people to vote in NY 9 to vote against a Conservative Jew supported by Joe Lieberman.

4. It's still the economy and the President knows it. That's why he's out aggressively pushing his bill (which is an excellent strategy.

[ProSense]

13. A referendum on Obama? GOP celebrates its NY win

A referendum on Obama? GOP celebrates its NY win

<...>

Mark Russell, 37, a Democrat, said he didn't vote because he could not get excited about supporting Weprin, despite numerous calls from the Democratic get-out-the-vote operation.

"In 2008 I voted for Obama, and I made a big mistake then," said Kelly Redmond, 47, who cited the economy and the president's policy toward Israel as reasons for supporting Turner.

Concerns that surfaced in the race included an administration policy in the Mideast that some Jews find not sufficiently supportive of Israel. Obama's urging of Israel to halt housing settlements in the West Bank has been a point of controversy in the district. Also, Weprin drew criticism for his vote in the New York Assembly in favor of a measure legalizing gay marriage, legislation generally unpopular with Orthodox Jews.

Among political leaders in both parties, reaction to the results fell along lines that are well-established for a special election in which a House seat changes hands from one party to the other. The winning side almost always claims a broad national significance, while the losers point instead to local concerns. In fact, that happened most recently elsewhere in New York, when Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul won a seat in May that had been in Republican hands for years.

more

Flashback: Democrat Kathy Hochul Wins Upset In NY-26, Medicare Vote Key To Victory

[Exilednight]

20. The Democratic Party put up a lame duck. By next election the NY-9 will be drawn off

the map.

Edit: I do agree that there is some merit to your argu.ment. The economy is in shambles. Today's census report showed 900,000 new people without health insurance, median income falling to it's lowest level since 1997, no growth in sales and unemployment holding steady at just barely under 10%

[TomClash]

21. I would say a "Dead Duck"

Weprin was a bad candidate. I posted this in another thread.

The economy sucks - if it gets better, we win. If not, we lose. It may be that simple.

[frazzled]

23. Well, Welprin doesn't even live in NY 9 NOW, and that's where he was running

The demographics of NY 9 have been changing--and not to the Democrats' benefit.

The fluke was that Weiner kept his seat--mostly because of his ultra-pro Israel stance and the fact that Republicans were running the foreign policy in Washington. Well, he kept his seat till he took his pants off. Oy vey, nice Jewish boys don't do that. (I'm a Jewish mother, I know.)

[Behind the Aegis]

30. Do you have any proof?

"The fluke was that Weiner kept his seat--mostly because of his ultra-pro Israel stance and the fact that Republicans were running the foreign policy in Washington."

I'd like to see some information.

[SheilaT]

8. I'm guessing that enough voters

were sufficiently disgusted with Weiner's behavior that they were willing to vote for the other party, as if that proved a point. It doesn't, at least not in the way those people would have wanted, but there you have it.

[zalinda]

11. They didn't want him to resign

the dem party pushed him out. Not his wife, not his constituents, but the dem party. Maybe that's what pissed them off.

zalinda

[LiberalFighter]

14. I could see that happening too.

When the Democratic Party steps in and tries to dictate to the constituents in the district who they should support. Whether by forcing a candidate out or supporting a candidate in a primary. It has to be better reasons before they should step in. But there should be absolutely no reason to step in if everyone involved does their job like they should.

[elleng]

15. Randy Rhodes said similar today; posted somewhere at DU.

Here, with explanation:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x772713

[Clear Blue Sky]

18. The hell it isn't...

This has been our district for 90 years and we just lost it to a nobody.

[rpannier]

31. The Dems running a candidate who didn't live in the district nt

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/republicans-say-loss-of-weiner-seat-will-have-national-impact-while-democrats-seek-to-downplay-result/?cid=ESPNheadline

[Clear Blue Sky]

34. That fact didn't hurt Hillary when she ran for Senate...

[rpannier]

40. And yet we're outraged when we find out Republicans, like the guy in WI didn't reside

in the district he rep in the Wisconsin Legislature

Maybe the people in this district did care

[Beacool]

22. In case you haven't noticed, this is not 2008.

The hope and change B.S. doesn't work anymore.

;)

[melissaf]

24. Hate to say it but

this is what change looks like: messy and awful and slow. Full of brutal opposition from those who benefit from the status quo. If we want change, we have to be in it for the long haul. Not to mention that wailing every time a Republican wins isn't going to do much for anyone's sanity--yeah, Republicans are going to win some battles. Flying into a panic about it each and every time does no one any good.

[Beacool]

42. I'm just tired of the excuses.

The Democrats got spanked in that election. I wish that they would just stop spinning. People are unhappy. There's nothing but bad news day in and day out. Not only are people angry, they are scared. Far too many are losing their way of life and they may never return to it. That's the new reality and it's damn scary.

:-(

[melissaf]

25. wait. a minute...this is sarcasm, isn't it?

Consarnit, no using sarcasm when I'm old and tired and cranky!

(seriously, though, my bad.)

[iamthebandfanman]

26. nope, just a a hillary supporter

still upset with the primary results.

that being said, i agree with her ... even if i dont with her over all notion that things would be different with hillary in charge.

[Beacool]

43. Nope, I wasn't being sarcastic.

Just disgusted with the same B.S. from all politicians.

;(

[JI7]

27. this shows that Obama needs to replace Biden with Lieberman

hahahhahah

[Behind the Aegis]

28. Your post just shows ignorance and bigotry.

:cry:

(Unless it was supposed to be :sarcasm:.)

[rpannier]

29. A thought I found out and did not know

a weak gaffe-filled candidate who didn’t even live in the district

He didn't live in the district???
That's just wrong

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/republicans-say-loss-of-weiner-seat-will-have-national-impact-while-democrats-seek-to-downplay-result/?cid=ESPNheadline

[Blasphemer]

41. It's hard to see this particular election as a bellweather

Considering the candidates and the fact that a sex (or sexless actually) scandal was involved, I wouldn't be inclined to see it as a predictor of anything. I think we'll have a GOP Congress for Obama's second term but I've felt that was for nearly two years. It's not so unusual. The only question is how close the seat numbers will be.