Can Herman Cain win?

[BrentWil]

If the GOP picks Romney, I think he is the favorite. With the economy like it is, this election should historically be tough for the party in power. It isn't fair, since it is the GOP that fucked this up, but that is the situation. But the GOP is really really crazy right now, and I could see them picking Herman Cain. That clearly gives us an advantage. Guy is nuts. However, the economy is still very bad. In this type of economy, is it possible for Cain to win?

[onehandle]

1. No. And he will not be nominated. Not only because he's a joke...

...but because the GOP would lose seats in the South with a black man on the ticket.

The real GOP is fully aware of this.

Cain will be gone in a few weeks.

[BrentWil]

2. I am not that sure..

He is the prefect kind of black for them. A black man who views on segregation are:

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/03/24/herman-cain-on-drinking-the-white-water-in-a-segregated-atlanta/

We were at the bargain basement at the department store one day, and my Mom was looking on a rack to get some stuff for us. We asked her if we could go get some water. She said yes. And Mom specifically said, ‘Now, y’all make sure y’all drink out of the “colored” fountain.’

“Being typical young boys, we got over there and looked at those two water fountains, and we kind of looked around. And we kind of went, hmm, nobody’s looking.

“So my brother went first, while I stayed on the look-out, to sip the ‘white’ water. Then he was on the look-out while I sipped the ‘white’ water. Then we both sipped the colored water. We looked at each other , ‘The water tastes the same. What’s the big deal?

It provides a nice sham for them. I think in a twisted sort of logic, the real crazies might think he is the prefect candidate.

[trusty elf]

36. G-O-Pizza?

[DesertFlower]

4. i agree. nt

[rocktivity]

6. The real GOP is using Cain to push Perry out of the way

He is their chosen puppet, just as Bush and McCain were.

Once Romney's comfortably out front, the real GOP will have the media pull the plug on him, while claiming that they're not racist because they gave him a chance and he "failed" of his own accord."

:headbang:
rocktivity

[AlinPA]

18. Who is/are the "real GOP"? Everything I've seen for the last three years points to the teabaggers,

the evangelicals/fundamentalists, anti-government,anti-immigrant, anti-gay extremists as the real GOP. Crazy wins it now for the republicans.

[win_in_06]

46. They seem to like him in Alabama.

It don't get more South than that.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/herman-cain-stumps-in-alabama/

[MjolnirTime]

3. Nobody beats Obama.

[DesertFlower]

5. i hope you're right. nt

[humbled_opinion]

8. They are not right...

Cain is their answer to bringing the conservative message to black Americans. There is no doubt that Cain is a full on conservative, business leader, preacher....I think they truly believe that they can scoop up 20-30 percent of the black vote by allowing a conservative black man to lead the party and communicate the conservative viewpoint to blacks in America........ It would be foolish for us to dismiss this.... A simple spot showing 50 years of the black population voting as a block for Democrats with a follow on about how has that dedication actually been working out for you... might send a powerful enough message that could entice people to ask for a change....

If you haven't noticed yet the GOP base has allowed him to inarticulately discuss his views on abortion and they have effectively given him a free pass for not towing the party line.

[ingac70]

16. Black people aren't stupid....

The see Cain as a vile Republicon caricature of them, like Palin is of women.

[humbled_opinion]

26. LOL well how will they respond...

When a black man becomes nominated by the party that we have always called racist?
How will they respond when the same Black man explains how unlike Obama who was raised by a rich white granny and went to rich white schools that he actually came from the segregated south a direct decendent of slavery, oppressed by Jim Crow and yet somehow managed to climb through the ranks to run for the highest office of the land? Will he not be hailed as the truth? As the epitomy of MLK's dream? How will they respond when campaign themes like ..."hey black folks hows that change working for you? You know that same change that Democrats have been promising and pandering to you for 50 years, why are you not yet empowered by all that they have promised you? Yet you will continue to block vote for them.... How about giving a real black man a chance to lift you up and empower you"?....

You see the problem with Cain is that if he can pull just 20-30 percent of the black vote or manage to supress it even if they don't vote for him that will be enough to guarantee him victory over Obama.....

We take this man lightly at our own peril.

[ingac70]

29. The same way Blacks responded to Alan Keyes v. Obama in IL....

He'll get his ass stomped back to Georgia.

And even a 20-30% pull in black votes (it really wont be that much) will be offset by the sheer number of whites in the South that stay home on election day.

[humbled_opinion]

30. Good point on the effect of those that sit out....

but that number is hard to guage IMO.... I just think that the debate between the two could sway peoples minds....

The Alan Keyes comparison is a little off because of the problems in that 2004 senate race since Keys was not the original candidate and there was corruption charges so it may have really screwed up the results...

I do have to remind you, That Obama is not sitting in a great spot right now with the economy, he is having problems getting legislation passed even with Democrats and people still aren't rallying around the Affordable Care plan. These are very interesting times coming up.... We will have to see how the SCOTUS decision on healthcare influences the electorat and if the economy doesn't improve I think it leaves real openings for somebody that will run a campaign on.... "Hey give me a shot, I certainly can't be any worse than the one in their now"......

Anyway we will see.

[ingac70]

32. Ryan left that race over scandalous shit in his divorce.

A black conservative had a negligible impact on blacks going repuke in that race because, like Herman, Alan Keyes is an idiot.

Most people are seeing our issues with the economy for what they are now, Republican obstruction... taking us all down to get rid of one guy.

[win_in_06]

48. a lot of women support Sarah Palin

...and I'm sure a significant number of blacks will support Cain.

[ingac70]

17. And he hasn't gotten a free pass on the abortions stuff...

there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth on RW radio Thursday over it.

[humbled_opinion]

25. It has not manifested in his polling... n/t

[ingac70]

27. It hasn't even been a week....

just give it time to get around!

[ingac70]

39. Told ya to give it a bit!

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gop-presidential-hopeful-herman-cain-s-favorability-rating-drops-9-points-latest-reuters-ipsos-poll-article-1.973009

[Empowerer]

38. This isn't about reaching out to blacks

We're not that stupid. And we certainly don't need someone like Herman Cain to translate the GOP for us. We are politicially savvy enough to know what the Republican Party is about and to know understand whether it's in our best interests to support it.

This is about reaching out to white voters who don't feel comfortable with the GOP's views on and approach to race and treatment of minorities. Herman Cain makes some of them feel better about voting Republican.

[Ikonoklast]

50. The GOP Party of Reagan and "Welfare Queens"?

Not in a million years; the days of Blacks voting Republican because Lincoln was one (which is immaterial anyway, as the Republican Party of Lincoln was the populist political party, the Democrats were for the wealthy) was killed when all the racist Dixiecrats became Republicans after the Voting Rights Act was signed.

Cain will be gone before the end of the year, if you think this is the only scandal brewing with him, you ain't seen nothin' yet.


I said it before, and I'll say it again, the Republican nominee will be Romney, and he's going to lose the general.

[Blue_Tires]

53. If the relatively sane Powell and Rice couldn't do it, how would Cain?

[aaaaaa5a]

7. No! Cain can't win. He will never be President. NT

[humbled_opinion]

9. I think Your Wrong...

See #8

[BklnDem75]

19. #8 is wrong also

Cain isn't the first black conservative running for President and he won't be the last. He doesn't resonate with us at all. If anything, he'll only draw black conservatives who thinks like he do. 20-30% isn't even a stretch of the imagination, it's pure fantasy land.

[humbled_opinion]

28. Good luck with that analysis....

I don't think you are seeing the consequence of having Obama and Cain debating each other when Obama has to answer for why he hasn't done more to empower the black community since becoming the first black president....

The people I speak with see this as a very powerful message.... You have to remember he doesn't have to get even half of the black vote only a minor portion because typically Cons get less than 5 percent....

We will see...

[BklnDem75]

34. The 'not doing enough for the black community' argument...

is a failed one only shared by people who only think they know what we're feeling. It's almost insulting, to be honest. We're more aware of what's going on than you're willing to give us credit for. My view is shared by many in my community. Herman Cain's a rich idiot that will never receive our vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Do You Talk To Any Black Folks?

They don't like to be told they are brainwashed.

[CoffinEd]

45. Thank you!

You took the words right out of my mouth.

[elfin]

10. No and he doesn't even want to win

That would mean "real" work instead of hawking books and giving canned "motivational" speeches for big bucks with the ultimate huge payoff by Fox in a continuing gig opposite MSNBC.

He's just generating headlines and buzz until the exit to personal profits aplently. Who knows how far he will get in the primary season. The further the better both for his wallet and for us.

[randome]

11. I think you're spot on.

Cain doesn't want to work that hard. Perry really is stupid. Romney will be the nominee and Obama will win re-election.

[Blue_Tires]

54. Thank you...Cain is simply Palin part two

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. The election will be over the minute California closes, like last time

In fact, it will be all but over before then, since states that were close and uncalled (VA and NC) will already have been called for Obama.

The GOP field tells us everything we need to know about their prospects. People disapprove of the way the economy is going, but they don't dislike Obama, and won't replace him with some schmuck that's been involved in these awful GOP debate scrums. It's embarrassing. It'll be Clinton-Dole all over again.

[BrentWil]

14. The only one that wins is Romney, IMHO NT

[BklnDem75]

20. Highly doubtful

They don't like Romney at all. They were hoping Perry would be the one, but he's made too many blunders. Romney even makes Cain shine, and that says a lot coming from that party. Right now they're hoping for a miracle.

[BrentWil]

24. I was saying he beats Obama if he wins the GOP primary...

Rather he wins the primary or not is questionable.

[BklnDem75]

35. I know that's what you meant. My point still stands

The crazy right will be very reluctant to stand behind a guy they despise almost as much as Obama. They're still pissed the establishment rinos gave them McCain to work with in 2008. They won't back the rino that they wanted even less than McCain the last go round.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Romney will be done by September

It won't even be close.

[AlinPA]

47. Done...by that do you mean "Done winning" or "Done-he's finished and out of it"?

[mwooldri]

13. Can he? Technically, yes. May he win? No he may not. nt

[ingac70]

15. No. I voting for the goofball in TN's open primary. n/t

[sofa king]

22. The way I see it.

First, to understand what I think I see, you have to adopt the same assumptions I make:

1) Republicans are evil;

2) Republicans have to operate outside of legal bounds to secure an election (see Watergate, the October Surprise, and Bushco), otherwise they have little to no chance to win even in favorable conditions, which this election will not have;

3) The media, from the executives who determine what's news to the anchors that report it, is part of the wealthy Republican elite and take their orders from some factions of the Republicans;

4) President Obama is smarter than all of them, has correctly anticipated their moves months or years in advance, and has already locked the next election down unless the Republicans resort to extralegal means;

5) Despite unified control of their organs and a relatively solid front (as long as their path is destruction and delay, rather than repair and creation), those who control the Republican Party are not unified; they instead pursue individual paths to evil according to their own unique self-interest.

The "individual paths to evil" part is the important one. Some Republican candidates, like Gingrich and Santorum, are entirely political and totally absorbed in their individual pursuit of power. Their evil will be directed at those who stand in their immediate way first, and then this President. The cleverest move for those candidates (or those exactly like them--Bachmann) will be to aim for the VP slot and then orchestrate the downfall of the new Republican President who acquires office through extralegal means.

The front-runner candidates--pretty much only Romney and that new stupid Texan, despite his current decline in fortunes--must be aware that their only chance is to be in it when something... unfortunate... happens on the opposite side. They're running on a lightning strike's chance... but they have a good relationship with Zeus.

But outside of the candidates, there is an entirely larger, more powerful, and more evil network of people who are of two general opinions: the election is already lost; or the election is lost unless it is secured through extralegal means. (The Republicans stupid enough to think they can win legally also are not good planners, so they can be safely discounted in this conversation. Former Bush Administration people have their own problem, which is that they have to secure the collusion of the nominee no matter who it is, in order to outrun the statutes of limitations for the crimes that still hang over their heads.)

Those who think the election is already lost will take the opportunity to try to expand their base, exactly as they prevailed upon the McCain camp to accept Sarah Palin in his throwaway electoral bid. They're the ones carefully pushing the polls in Cain's favor and focusing press attention on him, in hopes of sliding him into the VP slot, or even conceding the election entirely by greasing the nomination for him. (Putting Cain on top is a guaranteed loss: over half of Republican voters are racists who will certainly sit out an election between two black men, or vote for a third party candidate who will just as certainly arise if that possibility happens.)

But that loss will also attract a new cross-section of idiots from social out-groups who share the larger Republican ideals of greed and exploitation, or think that running Cain somehow absolves them from decades of race-baiting and vote suppression (and the obvious cynicism in nominating him at all). Putting Cain in the second slot also locks out the scheming sociopaths, histrionics, and narcissists that are currently competing for that position (not to say Cain isn't one of those, too). Smart Republicans probably can't help noticing that despite every possible roadblock, President Obama is still doing a pretty good job of tending the sheep so the fleece can grow back. A Cain nomination would fit well into those plans.

Those who think the election is lost and want to steal it will take entirely different, highly individual approaches to stealing the election. For protection, they won't reveal their plans to other factions, which leads to the amusing possibility of them working at cross-purposes and canceling each other out (what happens when a team of Cubans and a team of Texans break into the same Democratic headquarters at the same time?). Cain is unlikely to fit into any of their plans, which may put him in just as much personal danger as our President is in--with a lot less protection.

So who will win? The ones who want him to win-and-lose or the ones who want him to lose so they can steal? Right now, the bought press is for Cain, which suggests most of that directed money is in favor of him. If he is allowed to sink and fade, it suggests to me the murderers and thieves have won over the white collar criminals, and their next step will be to somehow destabilize the nation and the Democratic Party through criminal means in advance of an election they cannot otherwise win.

But no, there's no chance in Hell Cain can win. He'll be taken out the second someone sees that chance reveal itself. He'll be taken out if the press-plan wins and the thieves continue with their own plans. He'll be taken out if any one of a dozen lavishly funded shady oppo groups doesn't like him--and they all don't like him.

And let's hope I don't have to be proven correct--it's thoughts like these that make me happy I am wrong most of the time.

[workinclasszero]

23. No way. Cain is the latest marionette to amuse the teabaggers

Until Mittens wraps up the nomination.

You think the hardcore racist teapublicans are really gonna vote for a black man?:eyes:

OTOH The President would beat Pizza man like a drum in the election. Mittens is more dangerous by far.

[golfguru]

31. #8 makes more sense n/t

[Politicalboi]

33. I heard on MSNBC

Last week I think on Rachel's show that Cain isn't even going to be on all the ballots. Not sure if they meant Primary or General.

[Tx4obama]

37. No. Because ...

Cain doesn't even know the basics regarding the U.S. Constitution, Congress, or 'what' a president can and can not do.

See link below

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2173757

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Unless Unemployment Spikes To Fifteen Percent Cain Can't Beat Barack Obama

He is out of the mainstream and Barack Obama's moral rectitude will only highlight Herman Cain's lack of it.

[MilesColtrane]

42. No

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

43. I don't think Cain could beat Obama

He can win the GOP nomination. The Tea Party has run a bunch of psychos. But Cain would lose the independents, like Sharon Angle did. There's just so much craziness that the American piblic at large can accept in a general election. If I'm wrong, then there's reason to be really, really scared. That last TV commercial by Cain where he doesn't even appear, where no political issues are even raised and that has a bunch of bad actors doing aimless things in cowboy costumes without making any point whatsoever is even crazier than anything Sharon Angle ever said or did.

[Lord Helmet]

44. don't you think the gop will pay for blocking jobs creation?

I don't think any of them can win

[southernyankeebelle]

49. Cain won't and doesn't have any chance. However, none of us should sit at home. If any republican

wins the life we have left will be gone.

[Major Hogwash]

51. No.

Not now.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

52. But does Cain want to win?

If this is all performance art, geared towards attracting and landing book deals, the more the juicy scandals and controversy, the higher the eventual book sales.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

55. He's had more staying power than I originally believed him to have

but, in the end, I still tend to believe that he will not get anywhere near the nomination, at least not when the voting begins. The right-wing base of the GOP seems to be "trying on" the various candidates right now hoping to find somebody other than Romney to be their standard bearer. In the end, Romney will be the only one left standing and the right will be forced to support him, albeit reluctantly.