I'm making a bet for anybody interested: If I lose, I will never post on DU Again.

[Tiggeroshii]

So these are the terms:

I am so confident that Obama's approval ratings will be back in the net positives within the next 10 days, that if he does not have a net positive approval rating (through RCP average) by November 8, 2011, I will STOP POSTING ON DU FOREVER.

Not only that, but I'm so confident that he will stay that way, that if his approval dips back down in the negatives for longer than a week -after November 8, 2011: I will also adhere to quitting DU.

Anybody want to take me on?

[FrenchieCat]

1. I don't want you to leave based on some polls!

You are worth way more than that!

I hope you are correct, but if you are not, so what? I would rather you stayed! :)

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dsc]

3. I think that would be a foolish bet to make

Polls are volitible and snapshots. The simple fact is I would be astounded if Obama didn't fall under water in polls sometime during the next year if he indeed gets into positives by 8 Nov. It just is the nature of the beast. Unemployment hasn't gotten enough better to prevent that fall from happening.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. I'm counting on small dips here and there, but I'm confident they won't stick for long..

[MADem]

5. Whose polls? Gallup could screw you, Zogby, not so much!

Awww, stick around. The margins of error on those things are so sloppy as to be meaningless, half the time.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. I'm speaking of the RCP average that is done every day.

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

But I appreciate that you would like me to stay =)

[Safetykitten]

7. I will bet you.

I will bet you that:

The European economy will drag us all down by the end of 2012.
Our economy will continue to skid, no matter what the fantasy numbers cooked up are.
Obama will not win re-election.
A republican will win in 2012 by a landslide.

The day after the election that confirms that Obama wins re-election, I will never post on this site again.

How's that one?

[joshcryer]

11. Too much shit. I'll take that bet on Obama's reelection.

If Obama does not win, I leave forever, if Obama wins, you leave forever.

Deal?

[Safetykitten]

30. You have a deal.

[dionysus]

33. in advance; bye. don't write.

[mkultra]

37. yes, so long to you. we'll see you again with your new ID.

[golfguru]

12. Europe economy is screwed for sure

Their national debt levels are more than ours in terms of GDP. Did you know some people can retire in Greece at age 50 with full benefits?

Our economy might chug along. But housing has to recover first. And there are no signs it is.

Have no clue if Obama gets re-elected. Too far away.

[RichGirl]

15. We'll miss you......

[Number23]

28. ....

:rofl:

The one about the European economy alone means we've seen the last of SafetyKitten. I swear the EuroZone must have agreed to reduce Greek's debt by half just to make sure she stopped posting here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Tell Me President Obama's Approval Rating On 11-6-12 And I Will Tell You If He Wins Or Not

.

[FrenchieCat]

24. Wish you could stop posting earlier.......

like now...since you're just a negative drag to the Democrats,
and a boost of fresh air to the Republicans, and nothing more.

[Safetykitten]

31. Well, think of it like HCR. You will get it later, you will have to wait for the election.

[Vanje]

41. rude

U.R.

[Mira]

8. Why would you punish yourself?

Does this make any sense I am missing?

[CreekDog]

9. I don't understand the point of this bet

:shrug:

[SwampG8r]

10. thats a bad bet

the whole purpose of polls is to agree with whatever the person who payed for the poll wants.
polls are statistics and as such unreliable

[Cigar11]

17. Here's a sure Bet

Never Lick a Pole … you never know what has slid down it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Is That Why Nate Silver Nailed Every Senate Race, House Race, Governor's Race, And Presidential Race

in 2008 by aggregating polls?

[SwampG8r]

25. did he do it again in 2010?if not then it was but a fluke

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. He Does It Every Election

The final pre-election polls have a MOE of around one percent.

[Freddie Stubbs]

51. But what if the person who paid for the poll wants the poll to show an

accurate representation of public opinion?

[BlueMTexpat]

13. Please don't leave because of any polls this year.

The only poll that counts is in November 2012.

[Onlooker]

14. We lose either way with your bet

So, you're saying that if you're wrong, we'll lose the benefit of your posts. What kind of deal is that?

And if you're right, then it means we were wrong, so we lose again.

[RichGirl]

16. You're not going anywhere.....

I agree with you.

If we pay attention...things are getting better. The stock market going up yesterday, jobs rate better, Europe working things out.

Those who don't see it don't want to see it. Some people are just more comfortable when things don't work out. Some people, if they weren't complaining they'd have nothing to say at all.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

49. EXACTLY!!!!!! n/t

[Enrique]

18. he was at a net positive this past July

there's a graph here. It could be trending back up, but I think Nov. 8 is a little too soon for the lines to cross again:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[WI_DEM]

19. I think by next Spring he will be back on the positive rating, but not by Nov 8

I don't know why you want to make a silly bet like this, but that is your business.

[slackmaster]

20. I might take you up on that, but I really don't give a flying fuck about popularity polls

The only polls that matter are elections.

[Sheepshank]

21. Very bold

I like it!!!

regardless of the outcome on 11/8 you should hang around.....the upcoming year is going to be a wild ride here :)

[Number23]

27. Like not posting here is such a sacrifice

:)

More than one person I know has said that quitting DU actually made them happier and healthier.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. why? Is it the unemployment #s? Even Gallup says UE will drop

below 9% for October

[RFKHumphreyObama]

32. No...

Don't bet your future posting here on something so unpredictable. All that will happen if your prediction doesn't come true is that we end up losing a valued poster on a very trivial issue which could go either way

You don't know what could happen that affects President Obama's approval ratings over the next few days/weeks/months. Would you have predicted that President Bush would lose re-election in the first half of 1991 based on his 90^% approval ratings?

Don't go over something so trivial.

[craigmatic]

34. His rating will go up but I'm not sure when or by how much.

[Skittles]

35. what do you know that we don't, Tiggeroshii?

DO TELL US!!!

[mkultra]

36. you should make them promise the same thing.

Its easy for the trolls to say yes to a no risk scenario.

[Freddie Stubbs]

38. His numbers haven't been in positive territory since July

Why do you think that they are going to approve right now?

[ellisonz]

39. Starting to look like you're going to be sticking around...

[former9thward]

40. What polls are you looking at?

The OP cited the RCP average. There it is http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[Freddie Stubbs]

42. His Gallup numbers had been improving

But that trend did not continue today.

[former9thward]

43. Yes, but as far as the OP goes I doubt he will be in positive territory by Nov. 8.

[Phx_Dem]

44. Not me!

:thumbsup:

[Zorra]

45. No. Even if I often disagreed with you,

I would not like to see you leave DU if by chance you lost a bet.

[sofa king]

46. I have a better idea!

If you lose, which you won't, why don't we all just ignore your side of the bet and pretend it never happened?

Sort of like when Gore won Florida.

[Enrique]

47. kick

just for the hell of it. :-)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

48. Don't let the ODSers win. I left for awhile, but then thought about it...

The fight is much bigger than the ODSers on a message board. We need to get to work...

[WI_DEM]

50. His rating certainly has risin in some polls in the last week, but it doesn't appear

any of them will show him in net positive. But you really don't need to quit DU.