The Referendum That Could Indirectly Bring Down Obama

[walerosco]

Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou has called for a referendum on the newest EU bailout/austerity program forced on the country. This has caused a rebellion in his own party.

The austerity measures that were imposed with the past EU deals have been deeply unpopular with the Greek people, and polls show voters disapprove of this new deal. As a result world markets are panicking based on the assumption the Greeks will vote against the deal. The Euro value has fallen (usually a good thing for them to help their exports) and all over the world stock markets are down sharply.

No one knows if the referendum will even happen, whether it will fail or what will happen if it does. It could potentially have huge implications for the economy of Europe. Paul Krugman thinks this referendum could be part of the beginning of the end of the Euro currency union as it’s currently structured. The reaction of world markets shows he is not the only one to think that way.

http://elections.firedoglake.com/2011/11/01/the-referendum-that-could-indirectly-bring-down-obama/

[SidDithers]

1. Oh, it's FDL again...

:rofl:

Sid

[jefferson_dem]

3. It's no surprise that they are trying to pin Greece's economic woes on the President...

But why is this vapid nonsense dragged over DU?

[SidDithers]

9. Some posters think DU is a mirror site for FDL articles...nt

Sid

[jefferson_dem]

2. FDL wishes.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

Obama. Sucks. Bad.

Rinse. Repeat.

[FrenchieCat]

4. Firedoglake is on automatic attack mode these days I see.....

Must be their headline......I presume!

They want a Republican President so bad, they can almost taste the flesh!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

30. it's beginning to look that way!

[ProSense]

5. So

<...>

For the Obama campaign though, what matters is how the US economy is going in the short term. Presidential elections are heavily based on the state of the economy. Obama’s job approval numbers have been slowly moving up thanks in part to a modest improvement in economic optimism. But if economic turmoil hits Europe’s economy over the next few months, a contraction there could easily spill across the Atlantic and destroy the very modest growth the American economy might otherwise see. A crisis in Europe, a huge trading partner of the United States, could end up pushing the US unemployment rate back up.

A no vote in Greek could finally force Europe into the crisis it had been kicking down the road for years. A terrible economy in Europe could drag down the American economy, producing such bad economic conditions here that it would be almost impossible for an incumbent president to win re-election.

<...>

...help me understand (and I do the economic implications): The premise is that people are going to vote Republican or stay home because of economic turmoil in Europe?

Seems an odd thing for FDL to be focused on as political justification for a Republican win.

[Katashi_itto]

10. The real problem is if Greece defaults. We will pick up the pieces to maintain

our own Zombie banks that are exposed. Done in order to maintian the 1%ers Status Quo. Already the EU banks are screaming for another 100 trillion to recapitalize. We would be the suckers to put up the money rather than watch our own insolvent banks crash.

We would likely end up putting three hundred trillion or more (at a certain point, the numbers cease to have meaning). Before the system breaks down sometime next year. At which point, there is a strong possibilty fiat money simply ceases to be worth anything.

Italy is next, Spain, Ireland, England. One after another then us.

Its not a matter of who is after Obama, it's what his own solution to the crisis will be. He has two options.

Kick the can down the road -most likely course of action, based on his track record. Throw more trillions away. Nothing has been done to fix the systemic problems of 2008.

Or

Declare CDO and derivitives illegal. Let the banks crash and establish a National bank to take over all regular peoples and regular corportaions accounts.

Which do you think will happen?

[Katashi_itto]

11. this is the real issue.

[Katashi_itto]

12. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You know what will happen...

Just not in what order.

[bluestateguy]

6. Bring in the CIA election rigging division

What? You think it hasn't been done before?

[msanthrope]

7. How much ouzo were they drinking when they wrote this?? nt

[CakeGrrl]

8. More musings from Hamsher "Friend of Norquist"'s blog?

She ain't concerned about some bizarre mechanics by which Obama could be brought down - she's crossing her fingers for it.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. What does this have to do with President Obama?

The economy over here (well, everywhere) is a mess and everybody knows it and most, I suspect, know that it won't be fixed anytime soon, however President Obama and the Democrats still, in my humble opinion, represent the best (only) chance for properly fixing these problems. If Obama and the Democrats are able to make that case to the American public next year, then they'll be back in and the GOP will be out.

[Katashi_itto]

14. We can only hope. However a good portion of the Dems have been

bought too. GOP isnt even worth talking about. It will take a large progressive group elected to effect any real change.

Except for reps with balls, like Sanders, Grayson and others its very quiet.

Do you honestly see anything happen?

I would like to hope something would change. But I don't believe we can hold off systemic failure anymore.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

21. I agree that we need to elect more progressive, less "corporate-bought" Dems

but that will require significant work at all levels of government to accomplish and will be longer process. In the meantime, I believe we still need to do whatever we can to keep the GOP membership in Congress and state legislatures at levels where they can't keep obstructing and kneecapping necessary progress, not to mention making government dysfunctional in general. They're on a mission to prove that government doesn't work and, particularly during the last 2-3 years have become quite adept in figuring out how to sabotage it and prevent anything meaningful from getting done. I agree that there are some crummy Democrats whom might as well be Republicans but without a significant number of Republicans, their effect on getting things done is fairly negligible and even in most cases, they still vote with their own party or at least don't typically initiate/join filibusters.

[Cali_Democrat]

15. Greece could be a big issue for Obama, but there's not much Obama can do about it

Linking Greece to Obama may sound absurd at first because he has nothing to do with the politics in Greece and Europe as a whole. This is their debt crisis, but the problem is that the global economy is so interlinked.

In order to understand this, it requires critical thinking and an understanding of the Greek debt crisis and how the financial world works. The global economy is very interlinked. We saw that in 2008 when the US financial sector collapsed and took the entire world economy with it. It caused a global recession in 2008.

The same thing is in play here. Many European banks are holding loads of sovereign debt, not just from Greece but from other nations in Europe. That sovereign debt is very risky because of the relatively high debt-to-GDP ratios of those countries. Investors are demanding higher and higher return to hold that sovereign debt and this sends bond yields spiking, making it nearly impossible for these nations to sell their bonds on the open market and raise capital to pay their bills and roll out their debt.

Default becomes more and more likely as those countries are unable to pay those ridiculous interest rates. The bond prices fall and there's essentially panic selling of those bonds. If a default does occur, the European banks holding the debt will collapse. This will affect banks in the US and around the world because of how the financial world is so interlinked. We could see the same thing we saw in 2008. This will crash the world economy as well as the US economy. A disastrous US economy does not bode well for Obama's reelection campaign.

If the Greeks vote to reject the recent bailout package, default becomes much more likely than ever before.

The replies on this thread show how people are completely unaware of the severity of the situation in Greece and Europe and how it can affect the US economy in a negative way.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. Fingers crossed.....huh?

:rofl:

[Cali_Democrat]

18. If the Greeks vote to reject the bailout package,

how will the European banks be protected from a sovereign default? Soveriegn default essentially becomes inevitable because the Greeks and other countries in Europe can't pay those astrominical interest rates. This will lead to panic selling of those soverign bonds.

The European banks holding that sovereign debt will have to eat those loses when there is a default, no?

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. Just listened to an hour of NPR, and Greek opinion polls show that they don't want to be kicked out.

of the Euro. After hearing from actual Greeks, I'm fairly certain they know this would impact them even more negatively than the rest of the world. It's not everyday that a country gets 50% of it's debt wiped out, and a NO vote has huge ramifications for Italy, Poland, Ireland, Spain, and even France. So, trust me, this won't be the disaster you're hoping for. :hi:

[Cali_Democrat]

26. "this won't be the disaster you're hoping for"

You think I'm hoping for the entire world economy to collapse? That could mean huge layoffs for people I know...family members, etc. You think I want to be laid off? You think I want people I know to be laid off?

Also, I said "if the Greeks vote to reject the bailout package."

I didn't say they would reject it for sure, but there are significant austerity measures in the bailout package that Greeks won't like.

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. Like it or not, they don't have much choice. They would basically be left to sink or swim...

by the rest of the world. :hi:

[Cali_Democrat]

33. Why would you think I'm hoping for worldwide economic disaster?

That's completely and totally absurd.

It was such an odd statement.

[Cigar11]

17. What's this? A Republican version of a Hit & Run? /n

[walerosco]

19. Jesus Christ

What is wrong with you people? people look at the source of the article and automatically have a knee jerk reaction to it. All the article is saying is that if the Greeks reject the EU bailout and instead go ahead and defaults, it would hurt the US banks and the US economy which in turn would hurt Obama's chance of wining the election.

Clinton is quoted as saying "its the economy stupid" when it comes to voters concern. This is not anti Obama, the writer is just being realistic in analyzing the fallout of the Greeks rejecting EU bailout.

[treestar]

24. The voters aren't that out of touch, I would hope

That a referendum in another country determines their votes.

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. Thank Grover for us. We had no idea.

:eyes:

[laugle]

32. At last...some sanity!!

[MjolnirTime]

20. So, the sky is falling?

[Cali_Democrat]

22. Not yet. If there's a default,

we could see something very similar to the financial panic of 2008. This time it will be because of sovereign debt instead of credit default swaps. Who is going to bailout the zombie banks this time? Countries are even more indebted and broke now than they were in 2008.

The situation is actually moving very fast and is pretty fluid right now. There were reports that the Greeks weren't going to have a referendum, but then other reports said they will. I think the chances are good that they will reject the bailout because of the austerity measures in it.

We'll know very soon.

[dionysus]

23. faildoglake is getting desperate these days. poor jane.

[DFLforever]

29. Or, Jane hopes.

Strange when you prefer a world financial collapse to the re-election of Pres Obama. :crazy:

And we thought the GOTP were craven.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

31. If voters are so stupid that they think the world's economic woes are all our fault?

Trouble is many of them are ignorant.

[Tarheel_Dem]

34. Sorry guys, maybe next time?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x5047213:(

[Rosco T.]

35. Referendum CANCELLED!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/04/world/europe/greek-leaders-split-on-euro-referendum.html

ATHENS — After a tumultuous day of political gamesmanship, Prime Minister George Papandreou called off his plan to hold a referendum on Greece’s new loan deal with the European Union, vowed to soldier on amid rumors he would resign and opened talks on a unity government with his conservative opponents.

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