Fewer seek unemployment aid, hopeful sign for jobs - only third time since April w/ fewer than 400k.

[jefferson_dem]

Fewer seek unemployment aid, hopeful sign for jobs

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a hopeful sign that the job market might be picking up.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 397,000, the lowest level in five weeks. It's only the third time since April that applications have fallen below 400,000.

Economists were encouraged by the drop, though they cautioned that the trend would have to persist to signal real improvement.

"Should the gradual decline seen in recent weeks continue, this would mark an important sign" that the job market is improving, Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital, said in a note to clients.

<SNIP>

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_UNEMPLOYMENT_BENEFITS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[Crazy Dave]

1. That is just great news for the millions out of work two years plus...

And the 18 teachers in my school district just let go. They're going to be so happy hearing about this :sarcasm:

[jefferson_dem]

2. Right!

We would all much prefer if things continued to get even worse. :sarcasm:

[Crazy Dave]

3. It's not a preference, just the facts

Except maybe with republicans. They actually do prefer if things get worse and they're getting exactly what they want and it's getting handed to them with a big ribbon tied to it.

[jefferson_dem]

4. So the fact that fewer filed for unemployment means things are getting worse?

:shrug:

Sure, there are still miles to go... But let's not deny (baby steps of) progress.

[Crazy Dave]

6. I personally feel it's a non-news story

It's like when they use the word "growth" with negative numbers. "The economy grew at 0.25%", etc. To anyone with an education and a mind to use it, anything less than a positive number is a loss or is considered flat but you still see people, mostly those unaffected by this depression we're in, jumping for joy at the "great news".

[pinqy]

7. The irony of this

is that to anyone with an education and mind to use it, 0.25% is a positive number.

And that less than 400,000 people filed compared to the over 600,000 for some weeks in 2010, this is good news. There will always be some number filing...this isn't a net change in unemployed, it's gross numbers.

[Crazy Dave]

8. Spin it anyway you want to but...

We're gonna lose our ass in 2012 and you can remember me telling you so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Used To Think That But Now I Am Not So Sure

You can't beat somebody with nobody and the Republicans have nobody. Gray Davis was more unpopular in CA than President Obama is and Gray Davis won reelection because the CA Repubs rejected the electable Bill Riordan in favor of the unelectable William Simon. I am sure Team Obama is studying that campaign.

[Crazy Dave]

10. If he keeps gutting social security, medicare, medicaid and...

...helping the rich, his base is not going to turn out like they did in 2008 and why should they? Just because our guy isn't as bad as theirs? That type of motivation and none of the previous "hope and change" bullshit is going to win people over this time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Was Addressing Your Post In The Role As A Handicapper

I was addressing your post in the role as a handicapper. Is Cain going to beat him? Perry? Paul?. Gingrich, LOL

The only Repub with a chance of beating him is Romney and his base problems dwarf that of Obama.

I was pessimistic about this election but I am now mildly optimistic as long as the economy doesn't worsen and his Republican opponents keep showing their asses...

Obama should have been an underdog in this election but he is blessed by the quality or lack thereof of his opposition.

As to policy implications I can't imagine how frightening a Republicant controlled government, at all levels, would be...

[Crazy Dave]

15. But the economy is still worsening and will continue

And only a few people have been brainwashed into thinking that less people going on unemployment is better news than people actually finding real full time jobs.

Those who ran out of unemployment benefits or don't qualify, living with their parents, parents living with their kids, working part-time for $8 an hour with no benefits are in the tens of millions and conveniently not counted in these wonderful statistics.

Most of those same tens of millions will vote for anyone besides Obama or just stay home.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Am Not Saying The Economy Is Good But The Empirical Evidence Suggests It's Not Worsening

It's actually improving. Does life suck for tens of millions of Americans including myself who have literally lost everything in the Bush* tsunami? Yes...

But the situation reminds me of when a journalist asked Joe Louis how he could fight for a country that denied him and his people their rights. He said "it wasn't anything Hitler was going to fix." That's how I feel about our problems and the Republicants.

Politics is easy. Forty percent of the electorate will always vote for their guy. Forty percent of the electorate will always vote for our guy. Twenty percent of the electorate moves around. I don't think Cain, Romney, Perry or any of that crazy lot can get half of them...

[ClarkUSA]

20. Bullshit. When has he ever done that?

[Crazy Dave]

24. As we speak n/t

[ClarkUSA]

28. Prove it.

[BklnDem75]

26. 'keeps gutting'

Credibility ended here

[pinqy]

14. Mathematical facts are now spin?

0.0025 is greater than zero, therefore it is positive.

An addition of 397,000 people collecting UI is fewer than 406,000. And fewer people claiming unemployment insurance is a good thing.
It tells us nothing, however about how many fewer people have jobs or how many more people are unemployed (because we don't know how many people were hired).

It's not great news, because the UI intial claims have been bouncing around 400,000/week pretty much all year and were a lot lower in the first quarter of 2011, but things got worse than they are now over the summer and look like they're starting to improve again.

[Crazy Dave]

16. Things are indeed improving

Last year places like McDonalds and Walmart were not even hiring. Now there's only about a six month waiting list.

[JoePhilly]

22. Anecdotal evidence verses actual data .... ??

I know at least 4 people who just quit their current jobs and took better jobs ... so clearly the economy is improving, right?

Or did I need to know 16 people who got new jobs?

[Crazy Dave]

25. Oh I see

Just because things are going good for them so it must be for the rest of the country. There's many affluent neighborhoods in my town that haven't seen a recession. New three story homes, new SUVs, etc. and they think everything is just fine and that people out of work due to their own fault.

[JoePhilly]

27. Hahaha .... guess I needed the sarcasm tag for you. Let me explain ...

You used an anecdote about 15 teachers who lost their jobs as a way to DISMISS actual data.

And so ... I did the same thing ... I referred to actual people that I know who got better jobs (also opening up their old positions for others) to DISMISS your dismissal of the actual data.

My point was pretty simple ... if you are going to use 15 people losing their jobs to dismiss the actual data, then you will be able to DISMISS any improvement, because there will ALWAYS be people who are getting laid off, and you will be able to point to them ANECDOTALLY to dismiss the actual data.

Hope that helps.

[Crazy Dave]

29. 18 Teachers

http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2011-10-27/story/18-duval-county-teachers-face-layoffs-tuesday

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Am Beginning To Think President Obama Will Win This

.

[marlakay]

11. Because they have none left not because they are

working!

This never gets reported…or how many people like me lose a part time job that didn't have enough hours to even qualify for unemployment. In the last 5 yrs I have had a bunch of part time jobs, none of them lasted long enough to qualify.

I start tonight another 3 hr shift of very part time job. If it wasn't for my husbands pension I would be sunk as I am 55 and yrs from anything else...

[Crazy Dave]

12. Good luck friend

Like I said above, the only people celebrating are the ones who only see the bad economy on the news. Not those affected by it.

[great white snark]

17. I'm unemployed and see this as good news.

Is it only good if it effects me? Hardly.

[Crazy Dave]

18. Let's see if this good news brings you a sustainable paycheck

Good luck! :hi:

[great white snark]

21. It will bring happiness to someone.

Hopefully more folks will not be in my position.

:hi:

[frazzled]

32. You bring up such an important point

With your wise and generous response. Any employer would be lucky to have you on board--good luck with whatever you are searching for.

But back to your point: it's so essential to stand back and separate the personal and the anecdotal from the general situation, no matter what side of the fence you are on. With respect to unemployment, that would mean not dismissing its severity just because you might have personally done well during this trying period; and, on the other hand, not refusing to acknowledge that things are improving just because you personally are having a tough time. Being unemployed even during good economic times with low general unemployment has always been difficult. You can't read every economic or political situation through your own lens.

As liberals/progressives, we believe in the common good. And thus when there is news of an improvement in the common good, no matter how small or no matter if our own lot has not yet taken a turn for the better, it should be welcomed.

At any rate, thanks for reminding us that it's not always about us. Your attitude is admirable.

[great white snark]

33. Aw, thank you frazzled.

And yes, it's all for the common good. Not all of us have forgotten humility and selflessness..it's what being a Liberal is.

On a side note and I kid you not, ever since a generous DUer gave me a star my situation has improved immensely. I'm lining up interviews and my health is improving! Maybe by election time I can have some money saved up to donate and my legs will get me door to door spreading some Obama love.

Again thanks for your kind words and insight..and for the good luck.

[pinqy]

23. the report is INITIAL CLAIMS

Continuing claims are for the week ending October 22nd. As of that week, continuing claims have gone down, but there's no teling why. At least until the Employment Situation Report comes out tomorrow.

[Vattel]

30. Too early to say that anything is improving.

If the trend continues, that would indicate improvement.

[MjolnirTime]

31. and this is without any Jobs bill at all. Imagine if the GOP got out of the way...

[Skittles]

34. it's pretty bad

when, after all this time, the rule of success is "fewer people seeking unemployment aid"