Gallup: Real (Unadjusted) Unemployment Best in Two Years

[Pirate Smile]

Real (Unadjusted) Unemployment Best in Two Years

This is the best time to look for a job in more than two years -- although you wouldn't know it from the government's most recent unemployment report. Today the government reported that the not-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 8.5% in October, down from 8.8% in September, and continuing a steady decline from 9.3% in July -- and was the lowest unadjusted unemployment rate reported by the government since January 2009. Gallup reported a similar not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment number beginning in mid-October and on Thursday noted that the month ended at 8.4%.



The government's own numbers show that the number of employed Americans increased by 485,000 in October from September 2011 following an increase of 267,000 in September from August.

All of this is hidden because this is BLS household survey data, and most observers focus on what is reported in the survey of businesses known as the BLS establishment survey. The real unemployment situation is also disguised as the BLS adjusts the data for seasonal hiring in an effort to reveal what some might consider the underlying trend.

Given the length of the current recession/slowdown, observers can argue over seasonal adjustments and how they are used for analytical purposes. Regardless, it is clear that Americans are telling Gallup and the BLS that companies are hiring right now and the real (unadjusted) unemployment rate is at its lowest point in more than two years. While this may turn out to be temporary, it is also a tidbit of sunshine that the millions of unemployed and underemployed Americans deserve to know is happening.

http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2011/11/real-unadjusted-unemployment-best-in.html#.TrWekKSOWyE.twitter

Bonddad blog on the week:

Weekly indicators: autumn rebound continues edition
- by New Deal democrat

The big monthly data was obviously Friday's payrolls number. While the +80,000 headline number was still anemic, the internals fared considerably better, with jobs in the two prior months revised 100,000+ higher, aggregate hours increasing strongly, the manufacturing workweek increasing, and the U6 unemployment rate declining, among other things. Auto sales in October recorded another strong month. The ISM non-manufacturing index was fair. The only worrisome number was the ISM manufacturing index, just barely above contraction for the second month in a row.
The high frequency weekly indicators had another generally good week with a few soft patches, continuing their substantial rebound from their brief contraction of late August and September.

-snip-
Total rail traffic has improved substantially in the last month after having turned negative for 6 of 12 weeks during the summer. The American Association of Railroads reported that total carloads increased 5.0% YoY, up about 26,100 carloads YoY to 551,700. Intermodal traffic (a proxy for imports and exports) was up 10,800 carloads, or 4.6% YoY. The remaining baseline plus cyclical traffic increased 15,200 carloads or 5.2% YoY.
The weekly jobs data continued to improve. The BLS reported that Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 397,000. The four week average declined to 404,500. The four week average remains close to its best reading in over 3 years.

-snip-
Retail same store sales remained positive. The ICSC reported that same store sales for the week of October 29 increased 3.0% YoY, and 0.7% week over week. Shoppertrak reported that YoY sales rose 4.7% YoY and were down -2.2% week over week. Through thick and thin, the consumer has not rolled over this year.

-snip-
With the exception of weekly money supply and housing prices, all the weekly reports were positive, some strongly so, this week. It is worth noting that the anomaly of terrible consumer confidence and positive consumer spending continues. For now, the indicators show an economy continuing its expansion.

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2011/11/weekly-indicators-autumn-rebound.html

[hughee99]

1. Isn't October when stores start hiring for the holiday season? n/t

[Zynx]

2. This is why I don't know why people hate seasonally adjusted data.

While it's not perfect, it's a heck of a lot better than sitting around and postulating what the seasonal effect is when they look at non-seasonally adjusted data.

[Pirate Smile]

4. Yes but "Gallup did not see a similar decline in unemployment at this time last year,"

"Gallup is documenting a clear decline in unemployment and underemployment during October. Modeling based on statistical comparisons of Gallup's unemployment data to the government's seasonally adjusted data over time suggests that the Bureau of Labor Statistics could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0% on the first Friday in November.

The improvement in Gallup's measures may partly reflect seasonal factors, because Gallup's data are not seasonally adjusted. However, Gallup did not see a similar decline in unemployment at this time last year, suggesting seasonal impacts are not the only factors in play."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150365/Gallup-Finds-Significant-Drop-Unemployment-During-October.aspx

[Zynx]

7. This is why I don't know why people don't simply use the seasonally adjusted data.

You could at least approximate the decomposition between seasonal and other factors, even if they are slightly off. The seasonal swings are far larger than the measurement error of seasonal factors.

[mikekohr]

3. Excellant! nt

[Pirate Smile]

5. kick

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. !

:kick:

[great white snark]

8. K&R

woohoo