ABC/Washington Post poll: Most Republicans still want somebody other than Mitt Romney

[ProSense]

ABC/Washington Post poll: Most Republicans still want somebody other than Mitt Romney

by Jed Lewison

ABC News/Washington Post. 10/31-11/3. Republican primary voters. MoE ±5.5 (7/17, 9/1, 10/2, 11/3):



So Mitt Romney's still in the lead, but for a guy who supposedly has a mortal lock on the GOP nomination, he's hardly in a commanding position. To see what I mean, take a look at how Mitt Romney is doing relative to the total support of his named opponents and those who are still sitting on the fence:



So while the good news for Romney is that he's had more support than any of his individual opponents in 3 of the 4 polls in the chart, the bad news is that nearly two-thirds of the GOP primary electorate wants somebody else.

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[LiberalEsto]

1. Perhaps it's time to disentomb...

Reagan's mummy!

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. No way Reagan would be acceptable to today's Repuklican party. (nt)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. I'm not convinced that they hate Romney more than they hate Obama

Their hatred for Obama outweighs everything. If they believe that Romney can defeat him, they'll eventually rally around him.

[progressoid]

4. OK that's just an idiotic conclusion.

I bet in 2007, the numbers were similar for Obama against a large field of opponents.

[ProSense]

5. The

"I bet in 2007, the numbers were similar for Obama against a large field of opponents."

...point is the GOP has no clear front runner, even though it's supposed to be Romney. At this point leading up to the 2008 Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton was the front runner. Her numbers were significantly (18 to 20 points) higher than Romney's. Within a couple of months, Obama shared a similar lead, nearly split at about 41 percent.

Romney's numbers are worse than Giuliani, from the OP link:

[progressoid]

6. And?

So they don't have a clear front runner? Big deal.

We had a clear front runner and she did not get the nomination. So by that "logic" it's better to not be the front runner at this point.

[ProSense]

7. Still

"So they don't have a clear front runner? We had a clear front runner and she did not get the nomination. "

...64 percent want someone other than Mitch. I'm not upset by this.

On edit, think about it: The two Democratic front runners in 2008 had nearly 70 to 84 percent leading up to an even split.

The two GOP front runners now have about 50 percent.

[frazzled]

14. There wasn't the same kind of musical chairs going on at this time in 07

Hillary Clinton still had a strong lead in the national polls, but it was always Obama in a strong second place. (Although people here thought Edwards had a real chance, it was clear he never was polling above 15% even at his height). By Thanksgiving, her lead had tightened to only 38 to 27. There wasn't a wild race to try to push Chris Dodd or Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel, alternatively, into the lead.

The problem with national polls like this in primaries is that they don't reflect at all how primaries work. They're about gaining delegates in each state. It's about logistics. It's also about momentum after showing some heft in the initial states. The national polls 3 months out from the first primary really don't mean anything.

Although I strongly think Romney will be the nominee (who the hell else is there?), one can't say it's certain. He's bought up New Hampshire with campaign donations and has an honorary Native Son status there. No telling how he'll do in South Carolina or Iowa or Florida, however. I just really hope it's over fairly soon, so the American public can be put out of its misery.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

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[Jack Rabbit]

9. It looks like Pawlenty can re-enter the race with a new campaign slogan . . .

Nobody beats Time Pawlenty!

None of them . . . 2%
Santorum . . . . . 1%
Huntsman . . . . . 1%
Would not vote . . 1%
Pawlenty . . . . . 0%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. They Have Herman Cain

.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

11. Time for the psychopaths to draft someone new

There's still time to add another slot to the traveling circus freak show crazy train. How Ted Nugent? He can't be worse or less professional or Presidential than what they've got.

[karynnj]

12. Romney is likely to do worse in Iowa than these numbers suggest

- even if Iowa has the same distribution as the nation. In the caucuses, those whose candidate gets less than 15% in a district, need to go to their second choice or not be for anyone. Here, it seems like only Huntsman is more similar to Romney than to a leading conservative. It may well be that there will be many conservatives who fail to get the 15% - so the top conservative - whoever he is, will get lots of votes as "second choice".

(This is also why Romney is highly unlikely to be the source of the Cain story. It doesn't seem likely to help him.)

[Dawson Leery]

13. Let the infighting continue.

It only strengthens the Democrats.